Boston Celtics: Why Team Would Be Foolish to Break Up Core
It's been a strange season for the Celtics. Preseason speculation had Rajon Rondo's name mentioned in trades involving Chris Paul. They started out slow. Boston limped into the All-Star break, losing five in a row to fall to 15-17. They looked old, they looked tired. Even after winning five in a row after the break, trade rumors swirled. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were both on the trade block.
And yet, despite their age, the condensed season and conventional wisdom, the Celtics found themselves 10 minutes away from another NBA Finals appearance Saturday night. While fans may see Pierce, Allen and Kevin Garnett lineup as No. 34, No. 20 and No. 5, the front office sees 34, 36 and 36 years.
While one might reasonably expect a drop-off next season from their 2011-2012 season numbers, let's take a look at their production over this year's regular season.
Kevin Garnett posted 15.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG, both in line with his regular-season career numbers as a Celtic. He also posted an efficiency rating of 20.2, good enough for 21st in the league and ranking him higher than other notable big men like Chris Bosh (19.2), Roy Hibbert (17.6) and Amar'e Stoudamire (17.4). In the playoffs, Garnett averaged 19.2 PPG and 10.3 boards.
Ray Allen missed significant time due to an ankle injury, playing in only 46 games. While on the court, he put up 14.2 PPG and provided the Celtics with a consistent three-point threat on offense. While it was a shortened season, he posted a career high in three-point shooting percentage, hitting on 45.3 percent of his attempts. Allen slowed down in the playoffs, only averaging 10.7 PPG.
Paul Pierce continued cementing his legacy as another great Celtic scorer, averaging 19.4 PPG this season, good for 19th in the league. He also posted an efficiency rating of 18.8, putting him at 32nd in the league, ahead of young stars like Rudy Gay (17.7), James Harden (17.5) and Brandon Jennings (17.2). During the postseason, Pierce's average dipped to 18.9 PPG, but he didn't shy away from taking over when necessary.
Looking at these numbers and considering this year's second-half push, it's clear Garnett, Allen and Pierce all have something left in the tank. Allen was the only one whose playoff numbers had any noticeable drop-off.
With a 2012-2013 schedule resembling a "regular" campaign, one that has more off days and opportunities to rest, there is no reason the C's cannot keep this nucleus together and expect another long playoff run. This is also without considering Rajon Rondo's continued development as a legitimate scoring threat. Rondo averaged 11.9 PPG, up from 10.6 PPG in 2010-2011, and averaged 17.3 PPG in the playoffs. Even while scoring more, Rondo still notched career highs in APG in the regular season (11.7) and the playoffs (11.9).
The value of Boston's Big Four can be itemized, but it is best realized as the sum of their parts. The Celtics' defense allowed 89.33 PPG, the second lowest in the NBA. This stat is attributable to Doc River's defensive schemes, but it's also a testament to Boston's personnel. The Celtic's have one of the best defenses in the league because of their talent, but also because they have a group of players that buy into the system.
Allen and Garnett both become free agents once the playoffs are over. Allen earned $10 million and Garnett earned $21 million in 2012. There will be other teams interested in their services, but so long as they are willing to make a 2-3 year commitment, the C's should be able to get the "hometown discount" for these two. If the Celtics' front office really didn't intend on bringing these two back, they would have traded their expiring contracts before the deadline in an effort to get younger.
Pierce (two more years totaling $32 million) and Rondo (three more years totaling $36 million) are both under contract for several years. Rondo is the new face of the franchise and should be untouchable. If the Celtics want to move Pierce, it would be wisest to wait until the 2013-2014 trade deadline so they can capitalize on the added value of his expiring contract.
Perhaps the most important factor the Celtics' front office should consider is this group's legacy. Prior to the Big Three (now Four), the Celtics were the worst team in the Eastern Conference at 24-58. This group has never missed the playoffs and brought Boston its first NBA title since 1986. The best way to honor this group is to keep them together and let them retire as Celtics in a few years. This preserves their legacy and shows the Celtics franchise is loyal to players that win them games, something that can only help them down the road in the free-agent market.
All stats taken from NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com
