5 Factors That Will Decide the NBA Finals 2012 Winner

The majority of us predicted this matchup in the NBA Finals at the beginning of the season, and we somehow turned out to be correct.

Congratulations, 99 percent of the NBA community, for predicting the obvious! My next prediction is that it will take four games to win this series. Anyone want to place wagers?

Yes, we've all received our wish of being able to watch the Miami Heat taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder: Dwyane Wade against Russell Westbrook and James Harden, Chris Bosh against Serge Ibaka—and the centerpiece of this delicious Thanksgiving feast, Kevin Durant taking on LeBron James.

No wonder conspiracy theorists are wearing tinfoil hats in order to keep David Stern from reading their minds—this is the best possible NBA Finals you could ask for. However, it didn't take any sort of fishy officiating to garner it. The Heat were the best team in the East, and the Thunder were the best team in the West. Case closed.

The two squads split their two games over the regular season with the Thunder winning 103-87 at home and then the Heat winning in their house 98-93 a week later. However, regular-season matchups should mean little to nothing by this point. The playoffs, especially the NBA Finals, are a completely different animal where the stakes are at their highest and players will be maximizing their energy level.

We delve into this series and the five factors that will outright determine who will end up winning the 2012 NBA championship.

Is There Anyone on Oklahoma City Capable of Stopping LeBron James?

Is there any way we can just have the eight other players on the court step aside for a few series of each game just so that we can see LeBron James and Kevin Durant face off one-on-one?

Seriously, it doesn't get better than this. The reigning NBA MVP taking on the MVP runner-up—this is a storyline that's worthy of a movie deal by Disney. Two players, one being the current face of the NBA and the other looking to usurp that title, who worked out with each other through the offseason to improve, will take each other on on the NBA's biggest stage with the sole purpose of winning a title.

At the end of the series, one of these two will walk away with a ring and will forever be immortalized in NBA lore.

Both players have been equally terrific throughout their conference playoffs. Durant averaged 28 points, eight boards and four assists per while leading his team through a gauntlet that featured the past three NBA champions to come out of the West: the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks.

James, on the other hand, seemingly had a more relaxed road by defeating the New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics, but also had to beat two of those teams without the help of Chris Bosh. While he received help from Dwyane Wade and his supporting cast, it was mostly himself doing the heavy lifting, which includes a 45-point, 15-rebound and five-assist effort in a decisive Game 6 against Boston.

He's currently averaging 31 points, 9.6 rebounds and five assists per. Those stats are supported by the 34 points and 11 boards he just averaged against the Celtics. As much as we'd like to poke fun at the Celtics' age, that is still a squad with an incredible team defense that plays extremely physical and also happens to be equipped with a former Defensive Player of the Year.

So, who guards LeBron in the NBA Finals? Kevin Durant, obviously. However, as much as his length and size will play a factor in his favor, at what point do strength, stamina and conditioning play a factor in James' favor? Let's not forget Durant also has to support his team on the offensive end, and guarding James will take a lot out of him.

While James will also have to exert plenty of energy defending Durant, he has endurance and conditioning on his side, which will play a huge factor later on in games and in the series overall.

Perhaps Thabo Sefolosha? He's a terrific wing defender with plenty of length, but he doesn't nearly have the same build or strength to keep up with James. Also, he may find himself with his hands full due to defending Dwyane Wade.

Serge Ibaka could be a possible solution when not defending Chris Bosh. He's an incredible athlete with length and strength, but his speed won't nearly match that of LeBron's, and he also might find himself quickly in foul trouble if he's meant to defend the likes of Bosh and James.

As far as I see it, it's going to have to be Kevin Durant to step up to the challenge. People still underrate Durant's defense, which is a shame because it has hugely improved since he first entered the league. While it's not nearly on LeBron's level, he'll still be able to use his length to cause problems in the post and on jumpers.

Can the Thunder Front Line Stay out of Foul Trouble?

If the Oklahoma City Thunder want to win their first-ever championship since relocating, it's going to come down to how well their frontcourt plays.

The Thunder are going to need to win this with defense. If they're planning on winning with offense, they should expect the Heat to be right there running with them.

That's not going to work out in Oklahoma City's favor because of how well Miami plays defense down the stretch. Once the game gets down to the half-court setting, the Thunder will be forced to rely on contested jumpers after utilizing 36 minutes of energy to run.

This series is going to come down to how much of a presence Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison make of themselves. All the headlines surrounding LeBron James taking on Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade facing off with either James Harden and Russell Westbrook are nice for the ratings and reads, but it must be known that this series is going to come down to how well those three Thunder frontcourt players hold down the paint.

In case you have yet to realize, the Heat like to score a lot of points near the basket. They don't have many three-point threats they can rely on, and the only source of consistent mid-range shooting is Chris Bosh, which means they are always looking to attack behind the ferociously aggressive duo of Wade and James.

Because Bosh is back on the floor, the Thunder are going to have to sacrifice an interior defender to defend the perimeter. Bosh's jump shot is too consistent and dangerous to leave alone, which will probably mean Collison is going to see an ample number of minutes in order to keep Ibaka or Perkins on the floor.

Perkins has given problems to guys like Wade and James in the past while with the Boston Celtics. Ibaka, however, hasn't had a lot of experience defending their prolific slashing, and that could be a key factor weighing in favor of the Heat. Ibaka will need to do some heavy homework on the comfort levels of Wade and James and will also have to learn that he cannot try to block every shot.

Wade and James are too smart on the offensive end,  and they've been going against defenders like Ibaka for years. Hell, Wade has been playing against Dwight Howard four times every year since 2004. This isn't their first rodeo dealing with a shot-blocker, and they know how to get players like Ibaka in foul trouble.

Without Bosh, Miami was weak against Roy Hibbert and Kevin Garnett. Oklahoma City is going to have to find a way to have a defender hone in on Bosh's perimeter game, while still having the defenders to stay near the paint and keep out of foul trouble.

Will the Thunder Be Able to Rely on Their Jump-Shooting Prowess?

There are times where I'm watching Oklahoma City Thunder basketball and I think to myself, "How do you stop them?"

Seriously. How do you stop this team? There are three premier scorers on this team with an insane amount of athleticism that could dunk on you just as easily as they can hit from beyond the arc, a shot-blocking power forward with a mid-range game so pure that he converted all 11 of his shots in Game 4 against San Antonio, and a bench that's equipped with a few more shooters.

The Thunder's offense is nearly unstoppable—"nearly" being the key word. As incredible as the Thunder's offense looks at times, there is one fatal flaw from the three key players that are the core of this team. It's a flaw that has helped them win so many games before, but it just may very well be their downfall in this series against the Heat.

The flaw? This team is incredibly jump-shot-happy. As prolific as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden can be when they're attacking, they become far too attached to taking mid-range and perimeter jumpers. While these three are truly that good to consistently hit those jumpers, it may end up hurting them against a team like Miami.

Oklahoma City hasn't faced a team like Miami. San Antonio, Dallas and the Los Angeles Lakers are good teams, but they don't wear you down like Miami does. On defense, you always have to focus your attention on restricting the drives of James and Wade—something far easier said than done.

When you're on offense, the Heat pack the paint while still finding a way to cover enough ground to limit the effectiveness on the perimeter.

When you rely too heavily on your jumper, your legs get tired. As I said before, the Thunder have faced three very good teams, but they haven't faced a team like the Heat. Miami's offense and defense require you to have complete focus and concentration, while still containing the ability to endure yourself to last 48 minutes.

The Thunder are going to need to find ways to score easily on many of their possessions if they expect to come out of this with a victory. The Heat's defense bogs down heavily in the fourth quarter, and they don't allow any easy scores if their Game 7 defense against Boston didn't tell you enough. Oklahoma City will need to find ways to get to the rim and not become too reliant on those jumpers game in and game out.

Can Dwyane Wade Show Up for the First 24 Minutes?

Never thought I'd say it, but Dwyane Wade was nearly the reason the Miami Heat didn't make it to the NBA Finals.

It hurts to judge Wade on just how badly he played against Boston because Celtics coach Doc Rivers devised an excellent plan to get him out of the game early.

Without Bosh on the floor, Kevin Garnett was allowed to roam as he pleased. There was no need for him to defend the broken jumper of Udonis Haslem or the inept offenses of Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf. Instead of guarding his assignment, he constantly double-teamed Wade, who doesn't respond well to quick double-teams.

As a result, Wade struggled mightily in the first halves of each game against Boston—so badly that he only managed to average five points per game in the first half. He managed to recover with huge second halves each time, but it constantly put the Heat at a disadvantage to have Wade not come around until the second half.

It basically turned the Heat into the LeBron-led Cleveland Cavaliers since there was already no Bosh and now Wade finding trouble in scoring. The Cavaliers could survive against teams like Indiana and an aged Boston team, but Oklahoma City? That's not happening. If that happens, it's the 2007 NBA Finals all over again.

Since they now have Bosh back and won't be playing a team with as good a defense as Boston's, we should expect to see Wade at his best for the first 24 minutes, right? Well, that could pose a problem. Wade may finally be away from the strong defense of Boston, but he is now going to be defended by one of the league's most underrated wing defenders in the long Thabo Sefolosha.

Wade had 19 points on 7-of-18 shooting and five turnovers in the second meeting this season and 22 points on 6-of-10 shooting to go along with six turnovers in the first. All those turnovers will lead you to believe Sefolosha's length did cause problems in Wade's sight and handles. However, it's still tough to base anything on regular-season stats considering the NBA Finals are an entirely different season by itself.

Still, Wade will need to be available for all 48 minutes and will also be needed to consistently hit the mid-range jumper that has somehow escaped him.

Just How Healthy Is Chris Bosh?

We should have predicted this at the beginning of the season: The NBA Finals would rest on the strength of Chris Bosh's abdomen.

I'm sure Las Vegas would pay out well to whoever bet on that.

The entire narrative of this series is obviously going to surround the matchup between LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and for good reason. They finished 1-2 in MVP voting, and this may be the most prolific matchup we've seen in an NBA Finals since Michael Jordan took on Clyde Drexler in 1992 or when Hakeem Olajuwon took on Patrick Ewing in 1994.

However, this series doesn't ride on either of those two. Instead, it falls upon the health of Bosh and just how ready he is for what is going to be an extremely fast-paced, high-octane series that will most likely go at least six games. At least that's what you'd expect between two teams that possess the athletic talent of Durant, James, Dwyane Wade, Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

Bosh played the final three games of the Heat's series against the Boston Celtics after sitting out the previous nine games due to a strained abdomen. Miami went 5-4 without him, including a five-game winning streak that spanned the final three games of its series against Indiana and the first two against Boston.

It wasn't until Kevin Garnett began focusing his attention on limiting the drives of James and Wade that the Heat truly needed Bosh back in the lineup.

Bosh returned in Game 5, scoring nine points and grabbing seven boards in 14 minutes in a Heat loss. He'd record seven points, six boards and three blocks in 28 minutes the following game and would then provide a huge boost to the Heat with a 19-point, eight-rebound performance in the team's decisive Game 7 victory.

The Heat power forward hit three three-pointers in Game 7, the most he ever hit in a single game. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, however, given how much was made of Bosh practicing his three-point shooting throughout the offseason. Seeing him hit two of his threes from the corner and one from straightaway shouldn't have startled anyone.

The Heat could survive against Indiana and Boston—momentarily—without Bosh, but they're going to need him at full strength if they expect to keep up with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He'll be a huge factor for the Heat, as his teammates will expect his presence to draw the likes of Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison or Kendrick Perkins out of the paint.

Miami was significantly worse when there was a shot-blocking big on the floor in the previous two series. The Heat struggled against the likes of Roy Hibbert and Kevin Garnett because they were able to camp out in the lane without having to defend Bosh, who mainly stays a few feet within the perimeter.

If Bosh is healthy and playing as well as he did in Game 7, I say Heat in six. However, if Bosh is still hampered by that injury and not attracting the influence of the Thunder front line, I'd go Oklahoma City in six.

It truly does come down to how well he's hitting his shots and if he also has the confidence to drive after hurting himself on a dunk attempt in Game 1 against the Pacers.