Boston Red Sox: Separating Overreactions from Serious Concerns in Red Sox Nation

The Boston Red Sox have settled into an interesting rhythm. They're nowhere near as bad as they were in the first four weeks or so of the regular season, but they're still not a great team. 

The Red Sox deserve this much credit: They're better than they should be. They have a lot of injuries, quite a few underperforming players and a pitching staff that is wildly unpredictable. Somehow, they're only three games out in a very tough AL East.

Some of the team's issues are real issues. Some of them aren't real issues. It's just hard to tell the issues apart from the non-issues.

That's what we're here to do today. Ahead of you is a discussion of 11 different Red Sox problems, in which I determine whether or not there's actually anything to be worried about.

Let's start the show.

Where the Heck Are Crawford and Ellsbury?

Seriously, what's up with Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury? Are they almost ready?

Kinda. Sorta. Not really.

At last check, a report from The Boston Globe claimed that Crawford "could" be cleared to start throwing this week. If he is, then he'll have to start hitting, then he'll have to ramp up baseball activities, then he'll have to go on a minor league rehab assignment and then he'll be able to rejoin the big club.

In all likelihood, he's at least another month away.

As for Ellsbury, he too has a ways to go. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported on Tuesday that Ellsbury was able to hit off a tee, which is good news. That's just the first step among many, though. Ellsbury still has a lot to do before he can go on a rehab assignment, putting his return likely a month away too.

All things considered, the Red Sox have done quite well without Crawford and Ellsbury, as they've gotten good production out of guys like Daniel Nava, Marlon Byrd and Scott Podsednik. So far, Adrian Gonzalez hasn't been a complete disaster in right field.

From what I can tell, Red Sox fans aren't as desperate for Crawford and Ellsbury to return, and for good reason. This isn't like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard taking forever to return to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Verdict: Patience is a Virtue

Dustin Pedroia's Thumb

After what happened in 2010, the last thing Red Sox fans want is to see Dustin Pedroia go on the disabled list for a significant amount of time.

This was a possibility when word of Pedroia's thumb injury first leaked out. Nick Cafardo, at one point, tweeted that the Red Sox were meeting to consider putting Pedroia on the DL.

That, obviously, did not happen. Pedroia returned to the lineup on Tuesday night, albeit with a protective brace on his thumb.

But was he in the lineup because he's actually healthy, or was he in the lineup because he talked Bobby Valentine into it?

It sounds like the latter. Here's a quote from Bobby V himself, via ESPNBoston.com:

"

"He said he feels perfect. He had no reservations about doing everything that he has to do out on the baseball field. There's no swelling. There's no pain. There's a 100 percent green light from the training room."

"

Sounds like Pedroia told Bobby V what he wants to hear.

But if Pedroia can play through the pain, who cares? He did, after all, first suffer the injury on May 2, and nobody was the wiser. In 24 games after suffering the injury, he hit .296. Not exactly a huge dropoff in production.

Verdict: Let Him Play

Is This the Real Clay Buchholz?

Statistically, Clay Buchholz is no longer the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. Per FanGraphs, that dishonor now belongs to Ervin Santana, who has a league-low -0.5 WAR.

And there was much rejoicing...

But the question must be asked: Has Boston's No. 3 starter finally arrived, or should Red Sox Nation still be worried every time Buchholz takes the mound?

The numbers all suggest that Buchholz is a mess, as he still has a 6.58 ERA and a 1.73 ERA despite two straight solid starts. Opponents are hitting him at a .314 clip.

But the eye test has to take priority here. In his eight-inning performance against the Toronto Blue Jays last Friday, Buchholz looked like his old self. His fastball was up around 94 miles per hour, 71 of his 108 pitches found the strike zone and he notched a season-best seven strikeouts. 

For the first time all season, Buchholz didn't look like a deer in the headlights. He looked like the pitcher he was in 2010.

Since he has his stuff back, all he needs to do is maintain his confidence. Knowing Buchholz, that will be the hard part.

Even still, things are looking up.

Verdict: Safe to Come Out

Alfredo Aceves' Disappearing/Reappearing Act

Alfredo Aceves has made 20 appearances this season in which he hasn't allowed a single earned run. 

In the other seven appearances, he's allowed a grand total of 16 earned runs. He's allowed multiple earnies in five of those seven appearances.

So for the most part, he's great. But every once in a while...

Closers typically struggle in non-save situations more than they do in save situations, but that's not the case with Aceves. Per Baseball-Reference.com, he has a 3.55 ERA in non-save situations and an ugly 6.19 ERA in save situations.

Just as concerning, there's a major difference in his strikeout-to-walk ratios between non-save and save situations. In non-save situations, Aceves' K/BB is 6.33. In save situations, it's 1.33.

In a nutshell, Aceves is better when the pressure is lower. Suffice it to say that's not what you want to see in a closer.

Despite all this, no change needs to be made. Aceves is going to get the job done more often than not, and he's saved Boston's bacon on a number of different occasions. 

And let's face it, Bobby Valentine really doesn't have any better options.

Verdict: Stick With 'Em

Is There a Setup Problem?

Credit where credit is due, Boston's bullpen has been an area of strength for well over a month at this point. It took a while for Bobby Valentine to figure out what he had, but once he did, he became a master bullpen button-pusher.

But things aren't perfect. We've already gone over Aceves' issues, but the Red Sox have issues beyond their closer. The eighth inning has been a problem.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Red Sox have a 5.40 ERA in the eighth inning, a tiny 1.48 strikeout-to-walk ratio, an opponents' batting average of .290 and an opponents' slugging percentage of .845.

Those numbers are all up from last year, so what gives?

It's simple: the Red Sox don't have a true eighth-inning setup man. Last year, they had Daniel Bard. This year, they have guys like Vicente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Matt Albers, Scott Atchison, Rich Hill, and Andrew Miller. Every man in the bullpen has done his part in the late innings, but Bobby V lacks a go-to guy that he can bring in to shut opponents down in the eighth inning.

Maybe this will change when Andrew Bailey returns. Maybe Bard will be an option if he rediscovers his old fastball velocity. There's no clear answer, and that's disconcerting.

Verdict: Semi-Serious Concern

What's the Deal with the Gonzalez-Youkilis-Middlebrooks Playing Time Triangle?

Bobby Valentine wants Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks in his lineup every day. The tricky part is that he can't do that without making compromises.

A pattern has developed. On a nightly basis, Bobby V has to compromise either by playing Gonzalez in right field or by stashing Middlebrooks on the bench and playing Youk and Gonzalez on the infield.

This arrangement has been going on for a couple weeks now, ever since Youk returned to action on May 22. In 13 games since, the Sox have a record of 7-6.

So the Gonzo-Youk-Middlebrooks triangle thing isn't killing the Red Sox, but it's fair to say that it's holding them down. It's okay for now, but it's not a situation that the Red Sox want to deal with for much longer.

Somebody has to go, and all signs point towards the Red Sox dealing Youkilis. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reported that the Red Sox are open to the idea, and that there are already potential suitors lined up.

My gut tells me that it gets done, and the main reason my gut tells me that is because there's simply no way the Red Sox are going to be content with the awkward Gonzo-Youk-Middlebrooks situation for the whole season. Keep in mind, it will only get more awkward once all of Boston's injured players start returning, leaving Bobby V with less and less wiggle room.

Verdict: Problem That Must Be Solved

What's Up with the Fenway Park Struggles?

The Red Sox are supposed to have a big home-field advantage at Fenway Park, but that hasn't been the case this season. They're 13-15 in 28 home games.

The biggest problem is that the pitching staff has struggled within the confines of Fenway Park. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Sox pitchers have a 4.86 ERA at home as opposed to a 4.19 ERA on the road. Of the 64 home runs the Red Sox have surrendered this season, 38 have come at Fenway Park.

Bad pitching tends to make life difficult, and it doesn't help that the Red Sox aren't significantly better offensively at home than they are on the road. At home, they're scoring about 5.4 runs per game. On the road, they're scoring 5.1 runs per game.

All told, the Red Sox have a run differential of +1 in home games. Combined with some bad luck, that's how you get to have a sub -.500 home record.

There's no easy solution here. The Sox either have to score more runs or allow fewer. They're not going to score more runs until they get healthy, and asking this pitching staff to allow fewer runs in a bandbox like Fenway is asking a lot.

Verdict: Serious Concern

The Curious Case of Daniel Bard

Using Daniel Bard as a starting pitcher never sounded like a good idea. Sure enough, it turned out to be a bad idea.

Bard had some nice moments as a starter, but to say that he was inconsistent would be an understatement. His fastball control came and went, and it's pretty remarkable that he walked more guys than he struck out in his 10 starts.

Bard has since been sent to Triple-A Pawtucket, and the word from Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is that Bard will be limited to two-inning stints.

Either the Red Sox are trying to give his arm a rest, or they're trying to get him back in bullpen mode.

Regardless, the main goal for the immediate future should be to help Bard rediscover his fastball. He used to live in the high 90s with it, but that fastball never appeared this season. Bard's heater was checking in at an average of 93 miles per hour, according to FanGraphs, and there were some nights in which it was slower than that. To make matters worse, he couldn't command his suddenly slow fastball.

Whether as a starter or a reliever, Bard is no use to the Red Sox without his blistering fastball. Since there's no way of knowing whether he'll be able to find it again, there's a chance we're witnessing the beginning of the end of Bard's career.

Verdict: Serious Concern

Paging a No. 5 Starter

The Daniel Bard experiment failed. With him in the minors, the Red Sox are about to begin a potentially lengthy search for a No. 5 starter.

First up, not surprisingly, is Daisuke Matsuzaka. As reported by Nick Cafardo via Twitter, Dice-K will make his first start of the season on Saturday against the Washington Nationals. He's coming off Tomy John surgery, but there shouldn't be too much rust to shake off seeing as how Dice-K has already made eight starts in the minors this season.

If he performs well going forward, the No. 5 spot will be his.

But if he performs like he did the last time the Red Sox saw him in 2011, they'll need to consider other options.

They don't have many in-house options beyond Dice-K. Aaron Cook will be one once he gets healthy, but he won't be much of an upgrade.

The good news is that the Sox have pieces to make a trade for a starting pitcher, chief among them being Kevin Youkilis. He could fetch a solid starting pitcher if a team happens to have a spare one lying around. To boot, the Red Sox are going to have a surplus of outfielders once Cody Ross, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford get healthy.

So don't worry too much about the No. 5 spot in the rotation. It will get fixed.

Verdict: Don't Push the Panic Button

Jon Lester's Baffling Inconsistency

Jon Lester hasn't been himself this season. He's shown flashes of his old brilliance here and there, but his 3-4 record, 4.64 ERA and 1.38 WHIP just don't reflect the kind of pitcher he really is.

It's not a stuff problem. Per FanGraphs, Lester's fastball is coming in at an average of 92.6 miles per hour this year, which is right about where he was with his heater last season. In his last couple starts, his fastball has had a little extra zip on it.

Lester's problem is more between the ears. He's not throwing his cutter nearly as often this year as he has in years past, so it's no wonder that right-handed batters are teeing off on him. Just as puzzling are Lester's struggles with two strikes. He held hitters to a .147 batting average last season when he had two strikes on them. This year, hitters are hitting him at a .221 clip with two strikes (h/t Baseball-Reference.com).

The numbers do a pretty good job of telling the story, but Lester's mental issues are evident to the naked eye. Whenever things don't go his way, he's had a tendency to fall apart. If he doesn't get a key strike call, he loses focus. If there's an error made in the field, he loses focus.

Stuff like this is okay if it happens once or twice, but this has been happening consistently all season. There's something going on here, and it's not good.

Verdict: Serious Concern

Adrian Gonzalez's Power Outage

Adrian Gonzalez had 17 home runs at the All-Star break last year. Since then, he's hit a grand total of 14 home runs.

Uh oh. Has he been effected by the Home Run Derby curse?

Maybe. I don't know about the hocus-pocus aspect of his power drain, but the numbers are definitely alarming.

If it seems like Gonzalez has hit a lot of weak fly balls to the outfield this season, that's because he has. Per FanGraphs, Gonzalez has a 37.3 fly-ball rate this season, up from 32.1 percent last year. The bad new is that he only has a 6.1 HR/FB rate, down from 16.4 percent last season.

When he hit the ball in the air in 2011, odds are it was going to leave the park. When he puts the ball in the air this season, odds are it's staying in the park.

There doesn't appear to be anything wrong with Gonzalez's mechanics, but his bat speed looks a tick slower than usual. He's never had ferocious bat speed, but this year it looks like he's swinging a lead pipe around.

Mechanics can be fixed. Bat speed is a lot harder to fix.

Verdict: Serious Concern

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