Mark Appel: Astros Must Go with Low-Risk RHP to Ensure Future Success

The Houston Astros were the whipping boy of the National League Central last season.

They'll be the whipping boy of the entire American League for the foreseeable future if they don't see success in the 2012 MLB draft.

The debate has been whether the Astros should take Mark Appel or Byron Buxton. According to Grant Brisbee of Baseball Nation, Houston is reportedly leaning towards selecting the right-hander out of Stanford with the No. 1 overall pick.

Drafting Appel would be the right decision, as well as a step in the right direction for the Astros.

The most promising young pitcher that they have, Jordan Lyles, was called up to the majors earlier in the season. He hasn't enjoyed the success that the front office though he would.

He's currently boasting a 4.97 ERA, but he's only 21 years old and has shown some flashes of being a quality starter in the league.

As far as the minor leagues go, there is not much in terms of quality arms.

Jarred Cosart is the team's No. 1 pitching prospect, but his career ERA in the minors sits at a disappointing 3.91 through 290 innings pitched. He regressed in 2011, and has an alarmingly low strikeout rate for a pitcher with such a strong arm.

Cosart is all but a lock to become an effective major league pitcher.

Their No. 2 pitching prospect, Paul Clemens, has a 4.34 ERA in 446.1 innings pitched. His 2012 ERA with Oklahoma City in Triple-A sits at 6.00, so the Astros can't be expecting any help from him soon.

If he doesn't get his stuff together, he won't even make it as a mid-rotation starter in the majors.

That's about it for quality arms in the Houston minor league system, and that's precisely why they need to take Appel—a low-risk, high-reward starting pitcher.

His fastball is the pitch that is going to help him make his living in the big leagues, as it typically sits in the mid-90s. It can get all the way up to 99 miles per hour. 

What makes him so great is his ability to consistently mix in his changeup. It is right on the cusp of Bugs Bunny status. When you pair a mid-to-high-90s fastball with a mid-to-low-80s change up, you're going to get a lot of good hitters way out in front.

His third pitch, a curveball, is going to be considered a plus-pitch one day, as it could use some work before he can start breaking it out whenever he wants.

If you think about it, he could wind up being a bit like Justin Verlander without a bit of a slurve as opposed to a curveball and a slider. He even has the same build as Verlander—both are 6'5" and in the 215 to 225-pound range.

Appel had a sub-one WHIP in his final season with the Cardinals. He struck out 127 batters in 119 innings en route to a 10-1 record in 15 starts.

Despite his occasional problem with keeping the ball low, Appel was still able to hold hitters to just a .210 average. If he can can put up those gaudy numbers before he has fixed all the wrinkles in his game, there's no telling what he can do in the future.

For those making the case that the Astros should draft Byron Buxton, Appel is a much safer pick than Buxton. Not only that, but there is already a hot outfield prospect in George Springer, who has shown the ability to incorporate power, contact and speed into his game.

Remember that Buxton is a high school pick, which always makes a difference because you never know how their bodies will develop with age.

When you break it down, it's not hard to deduce that the Astros need a top pitching prospect in their minor league system more than they need a high-risk outfielder.

Let's just hope they can avoid the same fate that they suffered in 1992 when they drafted Phil Nevin five spots ahead of Derek Jeter.