Stats That Matter: What the Dallas Cowboys Must Maintain or Improve in 2012

Stats can sometimes be overrated, but it's nice to be able to set goals based on what's tangible. And oftentimes, there is a direct correlation between good statistics and success in the win column.

I dug deep to find three statistics that the Dallas Cowboys need to either maintain or improve upon in order to have a successful 2012 season.

Improve: Run Win Probability Added

OK, that might sound scary to some of you, but let me break it down.

Essentially, the geniuses at Advanced NFL Stats measure a team's overall probability of winning based on the outcome of a specific play. And when the Cowboys ran the ball in 2011, their win probability was -0.35, which ranked 26th in football. 

Five teams were clearly worse than Dallas in this category, but their pass WPA was 4.0, which was sixth best in the NFL. Why this is a bit surprising is that the Cowboys averaged a solid 4.4 yards per carry in 2011.

So how do they improve in this area without improving on their yards per rush, a number which isn't likely to climb too much higher?

Since this statistic is sensitive to the context of the game, it's an indication that Jason Garrett is still struggling with his play-calling when it comes to timing runs. 

It's not as though the Cowboys weren't able to hit some home runs on the ground. Dallas ranked favorably with 11 runs of 20 yards or more and three runs of 40 yards or more during the season. But Garrett shied away from running the ball in the red zone, and as a result, an offense that ranked seventh in the league through the air found paydirt on just 49 percent of its red-zone possessions. 

The Cowboys passed 60 percent of the time in the red zone, according to numbers provided by the Dallas Morning News, and only four of their 25 red-zone touchdowns came on the ground.

To improve on their red-zone scoring in 2012, they'll need more balance and aggressiveness in that area, which will in turn lead to a stronger run WPA number.

Improve: Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Allowed

The Dallas secondary took a lot of heat last year, but the numbers aren't horrifying.

We all know from watching Cowboys games that help was needed on pass defense, but 13 teams surrendered more passing touchdowns, nine teams gave up more passing yards and seven teams had a higher opponent passer rating. 

I guess they need to improve steadily in all areas, and the one stat from Pro Football Reference that tells that story is adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt. Essentially, this takes into account touchdowns surrendered and interceptions made. And in the Cowboys' case, their 7.3 number was the seventh worst in football.

By regular measures, good teams like the Packers, Patriots, Saints and Giants ranked lower than the Cowboys against the pass. But the Broncos were the only playoff team to post a higher adjusted-yards-per-pass-attempt number than the Cowboys in 2011.

You can still win despite a bad pass defense nowadays, but you can't afford to give up 24 passing touchdowns and 57 completions of 20-plus yards and only record 15 interceptions. 

I have little doubt that adding Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne to the secondary will be enough to give the Cowboys a significant boost in this category. 

Maintain: Passing Touchdown Percentage and Interception Percentage

This is a little more basic, but while the Cowboys have to improve their efficiency on the ground, they need to continue to stay efficient through the air.

The passing game was ranked seventh in terms of yards per game and 10th in terms of yards per attempt, but they might have actually been better than that.

They were fifth in adjusted yards per pass attempt (same metric cited above, but on offense), but they also had the fifth-highest passing-touchdown-per-attempt average in the league to go along with the sixth-lowest interception-per-attempt average (Pro Football Reference).

Only the Packers, Saints and Patriots joined Dallas in the top echelon of each of those categories, which is pretty amazing when you consider that Tony Romo's receiving corps was shorthanded for much of the season.

One thing's indisputable: Dallas has to improve.

It's not always easy to measure progress, but in order to take a step forward and experience their first winning season since 2009, those are three statistical areas they'll have to either maintain or improve upon.