NBA Draft 2012: Surprise Outcomes That Would Shift NBA's Balance of Power

The NBA Draft Lottery is proof that—at the end of the day—probabilities don't mean a heck of a lot.

While any team would obviously prefer to have the odds in their favor, it's less reassuring than you might think. In nearly two decades of draft lotteries, there have been more than a few surprises (according to  Mike Tokito of The Oregonian):

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But the No. 1 lottery spot only twice has landed the No.1 pick in the 18 years under the current system, although both produced franchise-changing results. In 2003, Cleveland landed the top pick and took LeBron James. The following year, Orlando got the No. 1 spot and took Dwight Howard.

The No. 1 lottery spot has been unlucky for other teams, five times failing to produce to a top-three pick, including in 2006 for the Blazers.

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Despite being projected to land the 13th selection in 1999, Baron Davis was selected by the Charlotte Hornets with the third overall pick. Two years earlier, the San Antonio Spurs skipped ahead of the Boston Celtics and Vancouver Grizzlies to take Tim Duncan with the first overall selection.

We all know how that turned out.

Fate was especially kind to the Chicago Bulls in 2008 when the franchise cut in line past eight teams with better odds of landing the first pick. The chances that 2011 MVP Derrick Rose would land with the team were impossibly slim.

Wednesday's Draft Lottery just might produce a few jaw-droppers of its own. Here are a few that would shake things up.

Charlotte Bobcats Fall Out of the Top Four

While anything short of the first selection would be a disappointment for the Bobcats, it isn't as if the consolation prizes for teams just missing out on Anthony Davis are chopped liver. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal and Thomas Robinson are all instant difference-makers with winning pedigrees and high ceilings.

Outside of the top five selections, though, this draft will force teams to make some tough decisions. There are some sure things and some high-reward prospects with a lot to prove. Navigating those kinds of questions would be rough for a team with Charlotte's problems.

If the Bobcats get unlucky and wind up with a bust, this team could be at the bottom of the barrel for a long time to come.

Brooklyn Nets Land a Top Three Pick

If the lottery selection originally belonging to Brooklyn lands one of the top three spots, the Nets get to keep it. If not, it goes to the Portland Trail Blazers as result of the trade that sent Gerald Wallace to Brooklyn.

Obviously, the former scenario would delay Portland's rebuilding process (though the team would eventually land Brooklyn's selection in one of the next two seasons). But, the real story here would be Brooklyn's coup.

The opportunity to land a young impact player might all but guarantee the return of free agents Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace.

And, whether the selection was parlayed into an attempt to acquire Dwight Howard or kept alongside youngsters like Brook Lopez and MarShon Brooks, the Nets would become much better. They might not be contenders immediately, but they wouldn't be far from it.

New Orleans Hornets Double Dip

The Hornets have the rare opportunity to acquire two legitimate stars in one draft. Even in the worst case scenario, this team is a lock to get significantly better. But with a little bit of luck, they could anchor their franchise for years to come (according to this New Orleans Hornets Press Release):

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Headed into the Lottery, the Hornets hold both their own selection (slotted fourth) and the Timberwolves’ selection (slotted tenth, acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers on Dec. 14, 2011). With the combined chances of the two picks, New Orleans has a 14.8% chance (148 of 1,000 possibilities) at landing the first selection, a 15.46% chance at drafting second and a 16.04% chance at third. The Hornets have never held two Lottery selections in the same draft in franchise history.

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Assuming restricted free agent Eric Gordon returns after a season in which he barely played (due to injury), the prospect of landing two elite players to join Gordon has to have fans in New Orleans salivating.

Chris Paul will be a distant memory if all goes right for the Hornets, and Monty Williams' team could see one of the quickest turnarounds in recent memory.