Tim Lincecum: How San Francisco Giants Ace Can Turn Things Around in 2012

Despite it being the lowest point of Tim Lincecum's career, there is still reason to believe that the San Francisco Giants ace will overcome his recent struggles and reemerge as the pitcher he once was in 2011.

For those who are hoping for the 2008 or 2009 version of Lincecum to return, don't hold your breath. That Lincecum is long gone, and will never come back. It was fun while it lasted, but all good things come to an end.

Lincecum was young and didn't have a ton of mileage on his arm back then, so could get away with throwing a fastball between 94 and 95 on a consistent basis.

But time isn't kind to pitchers in baseball, at least for the most part.

And now with four full seasons of over 200 innings pitched under his belt, Lincecum and his 5'11", 175-pound frame can't physically handle throwing that hard every other four days. And without that 94 to 95 mph heater, Lincecum simply isn't the same Cy Young pitcher that he used to be.

As Seth Smith of the Oakland Athletics said, "He looks like the same pitcher, with a little less velocity. That's all I see. His stuff is the same, but when you're throwing 89-90 instead of 93-94, it makes you a different pitcher."

What Smith said is completely legitimate. Lincecum doesn't have the ability to blow his fastball by everyone anymore. And now, suddenly, Lincecum's fastball—which used to be one of his best pitch when he came up to the majors—is no more than his third-best pitch.

However, contrary to popular belief, Lincecum doesn't need to throw 95 mph anymore to be effective.

Look at Matt Cain. He used to throw upwards of 94 mph, but now his fastball cruises at a cool 90 mph on average. Being able to pitch (locating on both sides of the plate, mixing speeds, keeping the ball low in the zone) is much more important than velocity. And this is exactly what Cain has learned to do over the course of his career.

But if Lincecum's decline in velocity isn't the only determining factor for his recent struggles, then what the heck is causing him to post an ERA over six this late in the season?

As Ray Ratto said on KNBR 680, Lincecum's main worry should be figuring out what to do when what used to work doesn't anymore.

In other words, Lincecum needs to adapt. Lincecum needs to accept that the rest of baseball has caught up to him, and now it's his turn to reconstruct his pitching approach.

Adaptation is one of the fundamental principles of life, after all, and it certainly applies to baseball.

So what should Lincecum do to adjust to the playing field that has adapted to him?

One word: locate.

Lincecum, back in his prime, was what we call effectively wild. At times, even he didn't know where that changeup was going to end up. It was a filthy pitch, and hitters simply couldn't lay off, even when it landed five feet in front of home plate.

But this isn't the case anymore, and teams are starting to lay off the "junk" and wait for a hittable pitch, if it ever comes. This is why Lincecum's BB/9 is 4.72, which is by far the highest it's been in his career.

If Lincecum is somehow able to learn how to locate his pitches, a couple things would result because of it.

First of all, it would permit him to pitch to contact, which is something that Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and recently Barry Zito have all excelled at this year.

What all three of those pitchers do well is work both sides of the plate and let the hitter hit into an out, rather than relying on strikeouts. And unfortunately for Lincecum, he can't rely on striking everyone out anymore.

Cain has already made the adjustment, but he was never a strikeout pitcher. Lincecum, on the other hand, has been for his entire career, and still is to a certain point. This could mean that it will take Lincecum longer to completely revamp his strategy, which he had grown accustomed to over the years.

Locating and pitching to contact would also allow lower his pitch count, which has been a recurring problem throughout his entire career. Lincecum has only pitched eight complete games in his six-year career, which is a low amount considering how successful of a career he has had.

The ball is now in Lincecum's court. If he's able to locate his fastball to both sides of the plate and consistently keep it around the knees, the rest will follow. His change up and curveball are natural strikeout pitches, so pitching to contact won't automatically mean Lincecum's 200-strikeout seasons are a thing of the past.

We've seen Lincecum face adversity in 2010, and he came out victorious in the end.

Learning how to locate pitches consistently can be a tough challenge, however, so it will be interesting to see if Lincecum can make the necessary adjustments. But considering his track record, I wouldn't bet against Lincecum in his attempt to return as one of the elite pitchers in the game.