NBA Playoffs 2012: Key Stats You Need to Know for Each Second-Round Series
The Golden Age of Statistics is upon us. The NBA playoffs are no exception to the stats renaissance in sports; key points of emphasis can be found in examining the number differential between opponents.
Here are statistics that cannot be ignored in each second-round matchup.The winner of these statistical clashes will be the likely candidate for a Conference Finals berth.
These numbers don’t lie.
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
1 of 4Offensive Rating: (Points per 100 Possessions):
San Antonio: 110.9 (second overall, first in NBA playoffs)
In this series, the Los Angeles Clippers won’t have to grind it out inside like they did versus Memphis. San Antonio will be on the run and daring the Clips to keep up.
San Antonio plans to score quickly and do so at an alarming rate. Only this team and Oklahoma City can boast top-five ratings in both pace and offensive points per 100 possessions. The Clippers also sported a high offensive rating but had one of the slowest paces in the NBA.
What does it all mean? The Spurs want to speed up their opponent a la "Phoenix Five Seconds or Less," while the Clippers like to go at a snail's pace and execute on fewer opportunities.
The advantage lies with San Antonio. They’ll force the Clippers out of their style and make them to score at a high percentage. The Clippers were able to do that in their last meeting on March 9 (a 120-108 victory), but the Spurs were without team MVP Tony Parker that day.
Even if Chris Paul outplays Parker in this series, one man cannot dictate the overall pace against this Spurs team; they’ll need the entire band.
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers
2 of 4Oklahoma City: first overall (Opponents: 15th)
Los Angeles: eighth overall (Opponents: 32nd)
This stat examines which teams look to get to the free-throw stripe, which both enjoy doing over 20 percent of the time.
The discrepancy occurs, though, when examining the Lakers’ opponents’ foul rate; they simply don’t foul as much as the rest of the playoff teams.
While the hoopla has been surrounding Metta World Peace’s return to Oklahoma City and the Thunder being rusty after a week off, the officiating in this series has become an overwhelming factor.
If the Lakers are able to stay out of foul trouble, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol will have an opportunity to control the paint and play extended minutes.
In addition, World Peace’s movements will be magnified this entire series. If the referees avoid being whistle-happy with Metta, the Lakers can avoid having Kobe guard Kevin Durant. Any minutes defending Thabo Sefolosha will be a blessing for the Black Mamba.
There’s a good chance the officiating calls the game tight with bad blood present between these two teams. If that’s the case, the Lakers do not have a fighter's chance to get this series past five games.
No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers
3 of 4Jump Shooting Efficiency
Indiana scores 41 percent on jump shots (two-point and three-point)
Miami allows 45 percent on all jump shots
Something has to give here: will Indiana score from long distance, or does Miami have the defensive ability to fluster the Pacers' jump shooting?
The Heat were able to make Steve Novak a non-factor in their first-round matchup, but the Heat don’t need to merely key on one guy to rid Indiana of its shooters. The Pacers sport two forwards in David West and Tyler Hansbrough who thrive in pick-and-pop situations, a known weakness in Miami’s defensive strategy.
The Heat bigs usually come out and flank the pick-and-roll to fluster opposing ball handlers. For a few seconds, the pick man is left unguarded with spot-up opportunities galore. Miami came out in Game 1 and adjusted accordingly to the Indiana shooting bigs, as mentioned on Twitter by other established NBA columnists.
News of Chris Bosh’s abdominal strain may have given Indiana a fighting chance in this series. Defensively, Miami will be just fine without Bosh; on offense the Heat need their reserves to pick up the scoring burden. That’s where the Pacers can really hurt Miami—their long-range scoring will push the scoring margin too wide for just Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to handle.
Chris Bosh or not, the Heat still sport an array of capable defenders both in their starting lineup and deep into their bench.
The Pacers will need to outscore and out execute LeBron and Wade in the half court. As a result, West and Hansbrough will have to knock down the least efficient shot in basketball routinely.
No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 4Total Rebounds
Philadelphia: seventh overall
Boston: 24th overall
Philadelphia out-rebounded Boston in all three of their regular season contests, but the Celtics were finally able to tip the scale in their 92-91 win Saturday.
However, when Philadelphia has out-rebounded Boston by 10 or more boards, the 76ers cruised to easy victories. It happened two out of three times this season.
The problem? Boston has been able to keep pace on the glass in its last two contests, both resulting Celtic wins.
Boston’s success can be credited to its point guard. Rajon Rondo has been willing to bang with opposing bigs and snag double-digit rebounds. Rondo’s effort was certainly on display Saturday when he recorded his eighth triple-double of his young playoff career.
Rondo’s presence makes Boston so dynamic; it makes up for the Celtics’ inefficiencies on the glass. Sure, they might not out-rebound teams on the stat sheet, but they have four guys crashing as opposed to most teams having only three. Plus, it doesn’t hurt if their point guard can grab the rebound and speed down the court like the Road Runner.
Philadelphia, though, is an athletic squad with young and spry forwards that can equally challenge Rondo on the boards. Significant contributions from Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young, in particular, could turn the rebound battle into a runaway. This is contingent of course, on Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand bodying up Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass and getting their normal rebounding fill.
At the end of this series, the team that sticks to fundamentals and rebounds the basketball will be rewarded.
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