Why the San Antonio Spurs Will Beat the Los Angeles Clippers

The first round couldn't have gone much different for the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers.

The Spurs cruised to a four-game sweep of the Utah Jazz, winning by an average of 16 points per contest. The Clippers? They are coming off a brutal seven-game series with the Memphis Grizzlies which saw both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin fall victim to injuries that clearly limited them.

I think most people expected to see a rematch of San Antonio and Memphis, but that is not the case. Instead, we get a duel of two of the best point guards in the NBA, Paul and Tony Parker. So, do the fifth-seeded Clippers stand much of a chance against the one-seeded Spurs? Let's break down the keys for both teams:

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Key player: Manu Ginobili. While Parker is the Spurs' best player, Ginobili will play the most important role in this series. Why? Because, unlike against Utah when Parker was able to have his way, Los Angeles has this guy named Chris Paul that you may have heard of, and that Paul guy is a pretty good defender. Yes, CP3 is a bit lame right now because of a nagging groin injury, but Paul at 75-80 percent is still better than just about every other point guard in the league.

Ginobili will need to pick up any potential slack that Parker leaves in the scoring department. He didn't exactly light it up against the Jazz, scoring in double-figures only once in the series. He will need to do better than that against the Clippers, a team that might have an incredibly tough time defending him.

You would think Caron Butler would be the player who checks Manu, but given that he is playing with a broken hand, his offense is limited, and L.A. is going to need all the offense it can get against the high-octane Spurs.

That means that Randy Foye and Nick Young will be seeing considerable floor time, and I'm not confident that either one of them can hang with Ginobili over the course of a seven-game series.

What the Spurs must do: It's simple, really. Keep the Clippers out of transition. The Clips are called "Lob City" for a reason. I am not saying that they can't score in the half court set, as Paul is the best point guard in the game, but they are at their best when they get out and run.

Also, given that Paul will likely still be feeling the effects of the groin injury, he may not be able to generate the kind of dribble penetration that he is normally so adept at. That makes it all the more important for San Antonio to slow the pace down for Los Angeles. Also, expect the Spurs to use their remarkable depth to run the banged up Clippers ragged.

What the Spurs must NOT do: Rely too heavily on Tim Duncan. Somehow, Duncan has actually become underrated nowadays, but L.A. actually has a couple of big men (DeAndre Jordan and Kenyon Martin) that can deal with him down low.

Both Jordan and Martin can contest shots and are strong enough to put a body on Duncan, and it's not like Duncan has the kind of quickness he used to where he would take opposing centers and power forwards out to the perimeter and use his incredible footwork to dazzle them.

I'm not saying the Spurs shouldn't try to make Duncan an integral part of the offense, because that would be stupid. What I am saying is that this isn't 2005 and that he should not be the focal point. Plus, the more you get other guys involved, the more it opens up Duncan.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Key player: Mo Williams. With Paul hurting, Williams will need to step his game up, and he did that in the first round against Memphis. He doesn't need to become James Harden off the bench or anything, but he does need to provide Vinny Del Negro with very productive, efficient minutes and keep San Antonio off-balance by giving them another point guard to think about other than CP3.

Also, Williams is probably going to see some time defending Parker, particularly if Paul's injury inhibits him to the point where he has trouble dealing with Parker's quickness.

What the Clippers must do: Keep Parker and Ginobili out of the paint. L.A. has the defenders to do that, with players like Jordan, Martin, and Reggie Evans. This is going to be absolutely imperative for the Clips if they want to have any chance at winning this series. As I said earlier; as good as Duncan still is, he isn't the same dominant force he once was, so if you take away Parker and Ginobili, the Spurs' offense could end up struggling.

Unfortunately for Los Angeles, San Antonio has so many weapons that just stopping one of those two isn't enough. The Clips will need to shut down both of them, and that is obviously no small feat.

In terms of what to do offensively, L.A. needs to run the floor. That may be a bit of an issue now given the injuries that have befallen the team, but if Paul can find a way to set up Griffin, Jordan, and company for lobs on the fast break, the Clippers will be in much better shape. If not, it's probably going to be a very long series (actually, a very short one).

What the Clippers must NOT do: Leave it up to the bench. We saw Los Angeles' bench play a pivotal role against the Grizzlies, but that likely will not fly against San Antonio, a team with, easily, the best group of reserves in the league.

If the Clippers are not getting the kind of production they need out of their starters, they will be lucky to win more than a game in this series. Griffin has to play better than he did against Memphis, but whether or not he can, due to that bothersome knee, is the question. L.A. is pretty deep, but the Spurs are deeper, so trying to ride that bench to a series victory is not a good idea.

PREDICTION

Honestly, I don't think the Clippers would have much of a chance in this series even if they were healthy, but their two best players are both playing hurt, so now I don't think they have any chance whatsoever. San Antonio is just too good. I expect a big series from Ginobili, and Parker should at least do enough to offset anything Paul brings to the table.

Los Angeles may have been able to squeak by Memphis, but that will not be the case here.

Spurs in five.