2012 NBA Mock Draft: Overrated Talents Teams Must Avoid

Talent can only take you so far, but anyone who loves the NBA draft can tell you that.

Something always seems to happen before the draft. Certain players start getting hyped, late-season scoring binges are blown out of proportion, and before we all know it, terms like "high ceiling" or "crazy potential" are jammed down our throats.

Maybe we just want to believe certain players can be better than they've proven in college.

One way or another, certain "talents" always become over-hyped heading into the draft. I've identified a few players I feel fit that bill.

1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)

The offensive game will come later, but Davis will be an instant defensive presence in Charlotte. He'll be the cornerstone of this franchise for the next decade.

2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)

He won't be doing any cinnamon challenges, and his complete game and unselfish play will be just what the doctor—and John Wall, for that matter—ordered in the nation's capital.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)  

Kyrie Irving couldn't ask for a better backcourt mate from this draft. This pair will make the Cavs very dangerous in a few years.

4. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)  

Robinson doesn't have the upside that some of the other top prospects possess, but he's one of the safest players in this draft and could wind up being next season's Rookie of the Year. He'll be a hard-working, passionate and consummate professional, and is the sort of player quality franchises generally possess.

5. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, C (Connecticut) 

Drummond has top-five talent and upside, but also has bust written all over him.

So which is it?

Is he the dominant force in the paint we saw in his 10 double-doubles for UConn this season? Or is he the player that disappeared for long stretches at a time and may be too nice a guy for his own good?

After only one year of college ball, it remains too soon to tell. Drummond could become a dominant center at the next level. Or, he could be this draft's biggest bust.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via New Jersey): Austin Rivers, SG (Duke)

The son of Doc Rivers won't be intimidated by the NBA's bright lights, he has all the tools to be an elite scorer at the next level and he won't be expected to run the point at the next level. People may have expected more from Rivers in his freshman season, but he's NBA-ready—trust me.

7. Golden State Warriors (from Utah): Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)

The Warriors kill two birds with one stone selecting Barnes here—they get a much-needed upgrade at the small forward position, and they add a player who can step into the scoring void left by Monta Ellis.

8. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)

Who the hell is Perry Jones III?

Is he the player that flashed enormous potential by putting up 31 points and 11 rebounds against Kansas State in a late-season game? Or is he the player that only managed nine points in Baylor's first two NCAA tournament games this season?

Teams willing to take him in the top-10 of this draft will note that he'll continue to develop the potential he flashed in games like the former. Teams wary of Jones will not that he consistently displayed the inconsistency he portrayed in the latter.

Jones is a player only a gambler could love. He could win you the lottery, or he could just as easily cost you the deed to your house.

9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)

Sullinger's offensive upside is limited, but he's an instant starter that will pair nicely with Greg Monroe and give the Pistons a tough, hard-working frontcourt.

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)   

Lillard will never replace Chris Paul, but he's this draft's most explosive point guard option and won't be bashful about taking the rock to the basket as a pro. He'll surprise some people next season—he can flat-out score.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
 

The Trail Blazers already added Rivers to add some more scoring in the backcourt. With that covered, they'll add this draft's best passer and most unselfish guard, Kendall Marshall. He'll make the rest of the Blazers better immediately.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina) 

Consider Andrew Bogut replaced. Zeller will work his butt off, and his intensity will be contagious in Milwaukee. This is a solid selection.

13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG (Connecticut)  

Given Lamb's talent and upside, he's probably a steal this late. I have questions about how good he'll be as a pro, but if nothing else, I think he'll develop into a solid scoring option and good team player. He just probably will never dominate as his talent suggests he could.

14. Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi State)     

His combination of upside and the fact that he averaged 15.8 points and 10.6 makes him one of the more intriguing prospects heading into this draft. Don't be surprised if he cracks the top 10.

15.  Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)

The Sixers need an elite, primary scorer, but they aren't on the board at this point. Need No. 2: bangers in the post. Henson is the perfect fit for the defensive-minded Sixers.

16. Houston Rockets (via New York): Terrence Jones, PF (Kentucky)

Jones offers the Rockets versatility at the forward position, and his talent was often overshadowed at Kentucky this year. Jones could be one of the steals in this draft.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Dion Waiters, SG (Syracuse)

Waiters is another guy climbing up boards, and Dallas would love for him to drop to the 17th pick, I'm sure. He'll play solid defense and could turn into an excellent scorer in the NBA.

18.  Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)  

He isn't the complete prospect that Waiters is, but he's certainly a worthy scorer. Between he and Lillard, Utah will add some serious punch to the backcourt in this draft.

19. Orlando Magic:  Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois) 

Leonard has become a popular player in this draft—probably because he's a true center with excellent size (7'1")—but he didn't show me enough in his sophomore season to suggest he'll be a dominant post presence at the next level.

He's still pretty raw, and any team drafting him should be prepared to undertake a bit of a project. Orlando can afford to do that with Dwight Howard still in town, easing Leonard into the NBA game while adding future insurance in case Howard eventually bolts.

The thing is, I don't think Leonard will ever develop into a viable replacement. Leonard is a risk, one I wouldn't take as a general manager.

20. Denver Nuggets: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)   

Miller's upside is huge, and the chance to develop slowly on a Nuggets team with solid depth will benefit Miller in the long run.

21. Boston Celtics: Doron Lamb, SG (Kentucky)

Lamb will be a better replacement for Ray Allen than people might expect. These Kentucky players blended together for the good of the team but, individually, they each possess a ton of talent.

22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Royce White, SF (Iowa State)

At 22, teams can take risky players and hope they develop. White is known to have an anxiety disorder and has faced off-court questions in the past, but his talent is unmistakable. With Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett (I believe he'll return) still in town, White will have excellent mentors to learn from.

23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten Jr., PG (Washington)

When's the last time the Hawks had a great point guard? I don't know if Wroten will end up being that guy, but the Hawks will give him a shot. He has the upside to be great—especially if he learns how to involve teammates more offensively—and at worst will be a solid defender at the position.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)

With the backcourt set, the Cavs can focus on adding the top frontcourt option remaining on their board. I'm guessing that player will be Nicholson.

25.   Memphis Grizzlies: Moe Harkless, PF (St. John's)

Memphis can afford to take a chance on the upside of Harkless. With time to mature, he could become a stud.

26.   Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)

Adding a point guard—if a good one is available, that is—makes sense in Indiana, and Teague is an intriguing prospect. He matured quite a bit at Kentucky this year, and while still raw, has shown a willingness to become a pure point guard.

27. Miami Heat: Draymond Green, PF (Michigan State)

This is probably way higher than Green will go, but I just love the fit with Miami.

28.  Oklahoma City Thunder: Fab Melo, C (Syracuse) 

The scoring options are plentiful for the Thunder. But adding more bodies on the block would certainly help. Melo may never be a scoring threat, but outside of Davis he's this draft's best shot-blocker and defensive presence down low.

29. Chicago Bulls: Jeffrey Taylor, SG (Vanderbilt)

Taylor shoots a high-percentage from three (.423 percent last season) and he plays excellent defense. He makes perfect sense for the Bulls.

30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio): Will Barton, SG (Memphis)

The Conference-USA Player of the Year can play either the 2 or 3 for the Warriors, and he and Barnes will quickly turn the wing into one of Golden State's strengths next season.

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