Breaking Down Albert Pujols' Horrific Struggles at the Plate

When the Los Angeles Angels signed Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract this offseason, they were expecting to get the greatest player of this generation who won three MVP awards and dominated the sport from his first game in 2001. 

Yet here we are on May 7 with Pujols hitting just .196/.237/.295 in 118 plate appearances. He did get his first home run on Sunday against Toronto, but that one hit does not make up for over one month's worth of struggles. 

To be fair, 118 plate appearances is hardly a significant sample size. If Pujols has one great week, his numbers will look exactly the way we expected them to. 

Here is a breakdown of what has happened to Pujols in 2012, as well as a look at what we can expect the rest of the year. 

Plate Discipline

One of the big keys to Pujols' success throughout his career has been his keen eye at the plate. The most strikeouts he has had in a single season was 93, when he was a rookie in 2001. Since that time, he has not punched out more than 76 times in a year. 

Since 2002, Pujols has never finished with a walk rate lower than his strikeout rate. His batter's eye was as sharp as there has ever been in Major League Baseball. 

This year, Pujols is not showing that discipline. He has walked in just 5.1 percent of his plate appearances and struck out 13.6 percent of the time. If he keeps up that pace, he would finish the season with roughly 40 walks, 29 fewer than his lowest single season total. 

Pujols is swinging at more pitches than he ever has before, 48.4 percent, according to Fangraphs. He is also swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, 39.8 percent, eight full percentage points above his rate from 2011. 

This could be an indication that he trying to cheat on pitches to catch up to velocity, he isn't seeing the ball well out of the pitcher's hand, his bat speed has declined or some combination of the three. 

Bad Luck

One of the least talked about aspects of Pujols' struggles this season has been just plain bad luck. The plate discipline is a problem that Pujols has to fix at some point, but everything else looks normal.

His line drive percentage of 24 percent would be the highest of his career, so he is making hard contact. The problem is, he is hitting balls right at people. His .221 batting average on balls in play is 90 points below his career average and 56 points worse than last year.

That kind of BABIP for someone hitting so many line drives is not going to last. When the balls he hits hard start finding gaps and going over the wall, his numbers will get back to where they used to be.

Age

While I believe that bad luck has been just as big a part of Pujols' problems in the first month of the season, age and a natural deterioration of skills could be a factor. The things that Pujols could do at age 22 aren't going to work now that he is 32. 

Pujols has had such great bat speed and hitter's eye that he was able to sit in the box longer than most hitters before committing to a pitch. But when you reach a certain age, your body is going to start slowing down and the things you used to be able to do will not be the same. 

We saw small glimpses of a decline in Pujols' bat speed last year, when he wasn't able to catch up to pitches in the zone that he used to destroy. That's not a skill that is going to magically come back, though he could try to change his swing to get to the ball quicker. 

The average fastball that Pujols has seen this year is 91.9 miles per hour, the second fastest rate of his career. If pitchers are seeing something in his swing mechanics that they can beat him on, they will continue to exploit that until he adjusts. 

What Is Going To Happen The Rest Of This Season?

The fan panic meter in Los Angeles is at an all-time high right now. Pujols was supposed to lead the resurgence of this team. The front office gave him one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, yet the early returns have not been promising. 

Calm down. All you have to do is look around baseball to see other aberrations that won't last to know that Pujols will be fine. Does anyone think the Baltimore Orioles are going to finish first in the American League East? 

Pujols' best days are behind him, but because those days were so great, he can be 80 to 85 percent of what he was and still be one of the best players in the game. 

As the season progresses and his bad luck turns around, Pujols will hit 30 home runs, get his average at least close to .300 with an on-base percentage around .385 and slug around .550. 

For more analysis on Albert Pujols, the mystery of the knuckleball and any other baseball information you might want, follow me on Twitter. 

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