Matt Kemp: Will the Dodgers Stud Actually Hit 50 Home Runs This Season?

There is no denying that Matt Kemp is on a tear this season. Carrying over his hot streak from last season, Kemp is off to a tremendous start with 11 home runs, 24 runs batted in, and a .442 average that has bolstered the Dodgers offense to a blaring start.

All things equal, if Kemp were to keep up his current offensive triumph, he would be on pace to hit 85 home runs and drive in 185 runs.

While Dodgers fans would love to see that happen, chances are Kemp will hit a slump sometime during this season as even the best ball players do.

So, realistically, what will Kemp’s numbers look like at the end of the season?

To answer this question, we’ll take a look at how it played out for some of the game’s best power hitters in their career-best offensive season and see if Mr. Kemp fits the mold.

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Barry Bonds (2001)

In 2001, Bonds had once of the most explosive offensive season in baseball history, ending with 73 home runs, 137 runs batted in, and a .328 average.

On top of that, opposing teams were righteously intimidated by his raw power and walked him 177 times in the season. Towards the end of the season, it wasn’t rare to see Bonds intentionally walked at least once a game.

Bonds’ April that year: 11 HR, 22 RBI, .240 BA

His best month: May: 17 HR, 30 RBI, .369 BA

His worst month: July: 6 HR, 15 RBI, .302 BA

After a good start to the 2001 season, Bonds exploded in May for his best month of the season. His lowest offensive totals came in July and are still good by anyone’s standards.

If Bonds would have put up the same totals that he did that July for every month of the season, he still would have finished with an impressive 39 home runs and 98 runs batted in.

So, even in his worst month of a stellar season, he still would have been above average if he maintained similar numbers the entire season.

Bonds exceeded those numbers by a big margin even though he was walked around 30 times per month after April.

Sammy Sosa (1998)

1998 was a great year to be a baseball fan with Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire going head to head for the single season home run record, which they both ended up breaking.

Although Sosa would even up being outdone by his pal McGwire, he ended up with an astounding 64 home runs, 160 runs batted in, and a .328 batting average.

Sosa’s April that year: 7 HR, 21 RBI, .256 BA

His best month: August: 17 HR, 36 RBI, .385 BA

His worst month: April

Sosa shook off the offseason cobwebs with a great start to the ’98 season, and never looked back from there.

After a stellar August that included 17 home runs (two 3-home run games), Sosa cooled off a little (relatively, that is) and hit 7 home runs with 14 runs batted in and a .341 average in September.

To put it in perspective, though, Sosa’s August (alongside Bonds’ May 2001) was one of the most productive offensive months in the history of baseball for a single player. 

Albert Pujols (2006)

Albert Pujols is on track to become the best hitter in baseball history with his consistent offensive production every year.

In his first 10 seasons in the MLB, Pujols put up at least 30 home runs and over 100 runs batted in with a batting average well over .300. (Pujols in 2011: 37 HR 99 RBI .299 BA)

Pujols had a career year in 2006, and probably would have put up even more amazing numbers had he been healthy the entire season and hadn’t sat out 15 games in June due to injury.

Pujols’ April that year: 14 HR, 32 RBI, .346 BA

His best month: April

His worst month: June: 1 HR, 2 RBI, .256 BA (10 games)

Pujols came out with a bang in ’06, and while he put up solid numbers for the remainder of the season (excluding his injury-filled June), he wasn’t able to replicate those numbers for the rest of the season.

That is merely a relative observation, as putting up 20 or more RBIs in every month (except for June) is a great feat and nothing to scoff at.

Alex Rodriguez (2002)

Like Pujols, A-Rod has been a consistent offensive producer for his entire baseball career and has almost always been in the hunt for a batting title (except for his injury-filled 2011: 16 HR 62 RBI .276 BA (99 GP))

Following a career-high season in 2001 (52 HR 135 RBI .318 BA), Rodriguez topped himself in 2002 and smacked 57 home runs with 142 runs batted in and an even .300 batting average.

Rodriguez’s April that year: 9 HR, 28 RBI, .306 BA

His best month: July: 12 HR, 27 RBI, .349 BA

His worst month: June: 7 HR, 13 RBI, .279 BA

A-Rod fizzled off a little bit in June, but still put up above-average numbers in that month.

A strong July was followed by an almost-identical August (12 HR 27 RBI .339 BA), and almost his batting average dropped dramatically to .202 for the month of September, he still hit 9 home runs and drove in 23 runs that month.

Babe Ruth (1927)

Babe Ruth set the home run record with 60 in his ’27 season, which proved to be a tremendous one for The Sultan of Swat.

In addition to setting a record that would stand until Roger Marris broke it by a margin of one in 1961, The Bambino drove in 164 runs with a .356 average. All in 11 games less than the 162-game schedule that’s played in today’s MLB.

Ruth’s April that year: 4 HR, 6 RBI, .333 BA

His best month: September:17 HR, 43 RBI, .361 BA

His worst month: April

You read correctly, Ruth drove in 43 runs in the month of September, which some players would be lucky to get by the month of September.

After a mediocre month (by Ruth’s standards) to start the season, Ruth exploded in May for 12 home runs and 34 runs batted in and then kept his offensive stats up the rest of the season. 

Mark McGwire (1998)

The eventual winner of the ’98 home run chase with Sammy Sosa, McGwire launched into space that season, hitting 70 home runs with 147 runs batted in and a .299 average.

His record-breaking 62nd home run barely cleared the left field wall of Busch Stadium, but McGwire delivered some moon shots that season.

McGwire’s April that season: 11 HR, 36 RBI, .318 BA

His best month: May: 16 HR, 32 RBI, .325 BA

His worst month: July: 8 HR, 13 RBI, .207 BA

McGwire started hot and ended hot. He hit a rough patch (if you’d like to call 8 home runs and 13 runs batted in a “rough patch”) in July when his batting averaged dipped to .207 on the month.

He never truly waned and maintained his outstanding numbers to put together a stellar season that resulted in a breaking of a home run record that had stood for 37 years.

Ken Griffey Jr. (1997)

With all the record breaking that occurred a few years later, Ken Griffey Jr.’s incredible ’97 season is overshadowed, but Junior had a very impressive year that put him a few home runs away from the single season record at the time (61).

In 1997, Griffey hit 56 bombs with 147 runs batted in and a .307 average. The sweet-swinging leftie proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder and put up nearly the same numbers in ’98 (56 HR 146 RBI .284 BA).

Griffey’s April that season: 13 HR, 30 RBI, .340 BA

His best month: April

His worst month: July 3 HR,21 RBI,.267 BA

Although Griffey only hit three home runs with a decent batting average in July, it’s hard to say that driving in 21 runs is a bad month.

After his strong April to kick of the ’98 season, Junior remained at the same elevated level of play in May and put up 11 home runs with 34 runs batted in the second month of the season.

August and September were almost identical with 12 home runs and 24 and 25 runs batted in, respectively. 

What It All Means

By taking a look at these power hitters’ career seasons, there has been a consistent factor—even their bad months are good months.

Ruth got off to a slow start to the ’27 season, but it’s worth noting that spring training programs weren’t nearly what they are today and it took some time for The Babe to dust off his bat.

Pujols’ injury cost him a little bit, but he still put up his best season despite being injured for a 15-game stretch.

There is no magical algorithm to predict how a player will fare based upon the first month of the season.

Consistency—that’s the key. Even in Griffey’s worst month, he still drove in 21 runs. The featured sluggers may have had little bumps in the road, but they didn’t completely come to a halt and that’s why their season resulted in great success. 

Kemp’s Tendencies

Last season was so anomalistic in Kemp’s career that you can almost throw out all of his previous numbers and tag the 2011 season as a breakout year for the 27-year-old MVP runner-up.

We could point out that Kemp historically doesn’t hit well in May (.284 BA, 14 HR, 60 RBI) or also that he tends to finish the season poorly, but he disproved his tendencies last season (7 HR, 21 RBI, .253 BA in May; 8 HR, 24 RBI, .343 BA in September).

For those who have followed Kemp over the years, you’d agree that he looks like a completely different player. He is confident at the plate, has a better grasp of the strike zone, and can hit off-speed pitches like never before.

Dodger fans didn’t know what to expect out of Kemp after his stellar season last year, but it has been proven this season that Kemp is the real deal.

The Prediction

So does Kemp fit the mold of his slugging predecessors?

In short, yes. It’s not as though Kemp will keep up his current pace and hit 85 home runs, but he’s destined for a good season.

54 HR 135 RBI .335 BA 34 SB

That’s the prediction.

Although this article hasn’t discussed base running at all, in addition to his bloated offensive numbers, Kemp will be active on the base paths once he keeps the ball in the park more, and should have a little more than 30 stolen bases.

His numbers will wane a little in May, but only relatively and will stay strong throughout the season. Opposing pitchers will want to walk or pitch around him, but will hesitate to do so with runners on base and Andre Ethier in the on-deck circle.

The mold seems to fit, and not just because Kemp has had a hot April. Something has clicked in his head, and not only has his play improved but his passion for the game has increased as well.

Bonds, Sosa, Pujols, Ruth, McGwire, Griffey, Rodriguez.

Kemp will need to prove his hitting abilities over the course of his career in order to even be considered to join such a list.

But for now, Kemp is holding tight, waiting for the mold to set…

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