NBA Awards Predictions 2012: Breaking Down the Defensive Player of the Year Race

At this particular point in time, Tyson Chandler seems a rather clear favorite for the Defensive Player of the Year award. He's made a significant, observable defensive difference for a team that badly needed his talents. He's anchored the Knicks as both a rotating big and a communicative leader. He's lived up to a big contract in a huge market and has been the steady center for a team in turmoil.

Chandler simply has every possible factor working in his favor this year—a notion which isn't at all meant to undercut his candidacy, but merely to explain the breadth of his appeal.

I'd estimate that the award is Chandler's...unless a collection of voters is somehow wooed by the same alternate defensive muse. This is the most wide-open DPOY race in years, and although Chandler may be the most likely candidate to win, there are a number of alternative choices that could stand in the way of his first major-award win:

How Much is 90 Percent of Dwight Howard's Defensive Attention Worth?

There seems to be a fairly general consensus that Dwight Howard's defensive effectiveness—whether by injury, distraction or general disinterest—has drifted this season relative to his monstrous defensive performance in others.

Yet it's important that we don't allow the pendulum to swing too far toward the chic; although Howard may not quite be playing up to his own personal standard, he's still far and away one of the most productive players in the league, a superstar in the truest sense and an elite defender among bigs (or on any scale, for that matter). Even if he's operating at, say, 90 percent capacity, is that enough to truly disqualify him from contention?

History in award voting says yes, and if the informal results posted on writers' "ballots" across the web are any indication, people are clamoring for the first non-Howard DPOY since 2008 in the same way they made an effort to gift the MVP to deserving—but lesser—players during Michael Jordan's reign. Might voters see possible overcompensation in action, and reverse course to reward Howard for another year of fantastic D—even if his work on that end didn't actually improve?

Kevin Garnett, a Great Effort, and a Good Story

As much as the drama and intrigue in New York is media-created and media-fulfilled, storied franchises like the Boston Celtics, too, draw an incredible amount of attention with their every move. 

There's a reason, after all, why the Celtics—despite their flaws— are being propped up as legitimate contenders; NBA fans are so damn used to Boston being elite that they attempt to willfully make it so with every step upward, just as they looked to bury Boston at the first sign of trouble. The NBA's landmark franchises live in absolutes, if only because the sheer amount of voices jabbering on the same subject manages to bleat out nuance and foster hyperbole.

Garnett has truly been one of the best defensive players in the league this season, despite even his initial struggles at the start of the year. His résumé is imperfect, but convincing; Garnett has Boston ranked as the second-best defense in the entire league, despite a rotating, wide-ranging cast of complementary bigs, and as good as Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo have been on D this season, all due credit goes to Garnett for holding down the crux of the system.

He rightfully deserves to be in this conversation, and I'm sure a convincing case could be made for why he's a more deserving candidate than all others. Yet Garnett's—and the Celtics'—story might be what really makes him register with a good chunk of the voting base. Boston's ascent, via defensive dominance, has been an inescapable season narrative, and as much as some voters would like to keep their minds clear of coverage-based influence, there's a certain futility in trying to mute these kinds of persistent whispers.

The Star Who Defends

That so many good-to-great offensive players win the Defensive Player of the Year award should come as little surprise. Although the intent of the award is to reward the league's best defender, in practice, it typically goes to the best-named defender, and names in the NBA are typically only earned with at least somewhat notable offensive production. If a player functions as a complete offensive liability, they're oddly swept under the rug without much explanation.

People love the idea of a high-functioning offensive player also dedicating his efforts to the defensive end, and for that reason, LeBron James—who has a very legitimate claim as one of the top defenders in the league—could be an incredibly attractive candidate. The vitriol toward James has weakened, and with that lessened ill will may, too, come some—or more—worthy votes for defense's top honor.

Doing the Impossible

The vast majority of DPOY winners and nominees are big men for a very understandable reason: Barring the emergence of a particularly transcendent perimeter defender, bigs generally are able to have a more significant defensive impact as a result of their role and function within a defensive system.

One such transcendent defender has already been named; James may be as tall and strong as some big men, but as a perimeter defender, he still manages to make a surprisingly far-reaching impact on the floor.

Another just so happens to be the top defender of the third-ranked defense in the NBA: Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala.

The Sixers have truly gone into a tailspin as the season has dragged on, but in no part due to their defense. Iguodala has managed to keep Philly's gauntlet of long arms in place and in check even throughout their struggles, in spite of the fact that Elton Brand is the team's only noteworthy defensive big. Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young and Nikola Vucevic do fine work within the context of their roles, but none is anything resembling a standout defender. That makes Iguodala's job all the more difficult, and the results—although counter to most voting precedent—all the more unique.