Golden State Warriors: A Playoff Team in 2012-2013? (Part 2

Part 2 of a 2-part story on the likelihood of a playoff berth for the Golden State Warriors in 2012-2013. Part 2 provides an early look at the Warriors roster next year, including team needs and players the Warriors should target in free agency to help achieve the playoff dream.

As mentioned in Part 1 of this story, the Warriors are undeniably a flawed basketball team. Though possessing excellent shooters on the offensive side of the ball, they have glaring weaknesses in rebounding and getting to the line. Looking to next season, how far are the Warriors from contending for the playoffs?

CURRENT ROSTER

Without stepping foot on the court, the Warriors of 2012-2013 will be a very different team than this season’s squad. On March 13, the Warriors pulled off their biggest trade since the Baron Davis deal of 2005, moving leading scorer and fan favorite Monta Ellis, young big-man Epke Udoh, and old big-man Kwame Brown to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson (Jackson was later flipped to the Spurs for Richard Jefferson and a draft pick). Following this blockbuster trade, the Warriors have the following players under contract for next season:

Stephen Curry, PG

Klay Thompson, SG/SF

Dorrell Wright, SG/SF

Richard Jefferson, SF

David Lee, PF/C

Andrew Bogut, C

Andris Biedrins, C

Free Agents:

Brandon Rush, SF/SF (Restricted)

Charles Jenkins, PG/SG (Restricted)

Dominic McGuire, SF

Nate Robinson, PG/SG

Let’s look at how the current roster for 2012-2013 will address the major weaknesses of this year’s Warriors.

Rebounding

By trading for Bogut, the Warriors acquired a true NBA center. Using his stats from 2010-2011 (Bogut only played in 12 games this season, providing an insufficient sample size), Bogut averaged a double-double, scoring 12.8 points and pulling in 11.1 boards a game. With the league average center averaging a total rebounding rate (percentage of total rebounds grabbed by a player while on the court) of 15.2 percent, Bogut rebounded at a 18.2 percent rate—a number that would have led the Warriors this season by a wide margin. Along with David Lee, Bogut forms a starting frontcourt that will be the Warriors’ most formidable in years.

In the backcourt, the Warriors find themselves sorely lacking in the rebounding tournament. With a starting backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson averaging 3.4 and 2.2 rebounds a game, respectively, the Warriors will definitely be leaning heavily on their other starters for rebounding.

Free Throws

The Warriors consistently lost the free throw battle against opponents this season, ranking 29^th out of 30 teams in free throw rate (free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted) while being fifth in the NBA in fouls committed per game. Getting to the line is crucial late in games, and the Warrior perimeter-oriented players were just not capable of drawing fouls.

Looking at the Warriors as a team this season, the only player who possessed a free throw rate higher than the league average of 27.3 percent was David Lee. In fact, discounting Lee, the top-two scoring leaders on the Warriors, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, had microscopic free throw rates of 16 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Fortunately, some solace will be found next season with the addition of Andrew Bogut, whose 2010-2011 free throw rate of 30 percent would have led the Warriors this season (how many free throws the 57.4 percent career shooter actually hits remains to be seen). Nonetheless, even with Bogut, the Warriors will still be lacking players who can consistently get to the line when necessary.

FREE AGENCY

Warriors current depth chart for 2012-2013:

PG: Stephen Curry

SG: Klay Thompson

SF: Dorrell Wright, Richard Jefferson

PF: David Lee

C: Andrew Bogut, Andris Biedrins

With seven key players under contract for 2012-2013, and large financial commitments made to Bogut, Lee, Jefferson and Biedrins, the Warriors will most likely not be making a big splash in free agency.

The Warriors appear to be focused upon building around a foundation of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee, and Andrew Bogut. As such, the four aforementioned players will enter next year locked in as the starting point guard, shooting guard, power forward and center on the team. 

The small forward position remains up in the air; however, taking a look at the numbers, we can see that no Warrior small forward stood out in their performance this season, putting up eerily similar lines:

Player A: 26.8 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 3.5 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.5 Steals, 0.2 Blocks, 1.6 3PM, .429 FG%, .459 3PT%, 25% Free Throw Rate

Player B: 26.8 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.5 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.9 Steals, 0.4 Blocks, 1.7 3PM, .423 FG%, .354 3PT%, 18% Free Throw Rate

Player C: 26.3 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 3.7 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.5 Steals, 0.9 Blocks, 1.5 3PM, .484 FG%, .448 3PT%, 20% Free Throw Rate

Richard Jefferson (Player A), Dorrell Wright (Player B) and Brandon Rush (Player C) all possessed an identical ability to shoot three-pointers at a good percentage while maintaining a shared aversion to rebounding and drawing fouls. Though Rush did have a significantly higher field goal percentage than the other two swingmen, his career .430 field goal percentage suggests that this year’s number is more an exception than the norm.

However, with Wright and Jefferson under contract for next season, the Warriors will, barring a trade, continue giving heavy minutes to both players. Consequently, the Warriors will lean heavily on Bogut and Lee to compensate for the rest of the starting lineup’s rebounding and free throw woes.

With the starters basically established by this point, it becomes crucial for the Warriors to fill their bench with capable rebounders and foul shooters. The free agent class at guard appears unrealistic to fulfill the Warriors’ bench needs, as potentially available guards that get to the line consistently (Jerryd Bayless, Jeremy Lin, Louis Williams, Ramon Sessions, Goran Dragic) will likely command contracts beyond what the Warriors can take on.

Swingmen that fulfill Warrior needs include Alonzo Gee (38 percent free throw rate, top-ten amongst all NBA swingmen) and Matt Barnes (13.2 total rebound rate, second amongst all NBA swingmen).

For free agent bigs, the Warriors need to focus on rebounding ability. Potential free agents who can fulfill that role without hurting the wallet include Reggie Evans (20.8 total rebound rate, fourth in the league), Aaron Gray (20.5 total rebound rate, fifth in the league), Omer Asik (19.6 total rebound rate), and Jordan Hill (19.2 total rebound rate).

CONCLUSION

With the addition of Andrew Bogut and a couple astute free agency moves, the 2012-2013 Warriors have a realistic chance at contending for a playoff berth. Not lacking for shooters with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Dorrell Wrigh, and Richard Jefferson, the interior duo of Lee and Bogut should provide a more balanced attack than in years past.

The key for the Warriors future next season though, will be health. With Curry experiencing troubling ankle issues and Bogut averaging a mere 46 games a year the past four seasons, the Warriors’ hopes rest on a shaky foundation. However, if healthy, the Warriors could very well be playing May basketball in the near future.

Nonetheless, when asked about making another playoff guarantee, Coach Jackson showed some new-found restraint, answering, “growing and maturing. No comment.” As Warriors fans, we can only hope the team grows and matures along with their coach.