Why Derek Jeter's Red-Hot Start Is a Fluke for the New York Yankees

Derek Jeter is off to his best start in years. He is hitting .373/.387/.644 through 13 games, so all seems to be right with the New York Yankees shortstop. Unfortunately, a deeper dive into the numbers proves that he is destined to revert back to his performance from the previous two years. 

Baseball fans are the most over-reactive in the world. Even though we have seen a number of players and teams get off to ridiculous starts that no one saw coming—so much so that it is clear regression is coming—they still love to believe that a two-week performance is an indication that something has clicked somewhere. 

Jeter is the perfect example for this season. No one expected much out of him following a .270/.340/.370 slash line in 2010 and .297/.355/.388 last season; yet here he is playing like it's 1999. 

We could talk about his defense, but that hasn't been good for years and it appears to be getting worse, as evidenced by his -2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and -2.6 Range Runs, according to Fangraphs. 

As for Jeter's offensive numbers, he is playing at a pace that is virtually impossible for any player to keep up. For starters, he is walking just 3.2 percent of the time. If that number holds up through the rest of the year, it would be easily the worst full-season rate of his career. 

The average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are destined to drop substantially in the coming months. Jeter is hitting .550/.524/.900 with a .500 Batting Average On Balls In Play against left-handed pitching, compared to just .282/.317/.513 against righties. 

Jeter has basically been a platoon player for years, hitting just .278/.343/.365 against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2009 season. 

To his credit, Jeter is not talking about this incredible start being a sign of things to come. In fact, earlier this week, he said that it's too early to say anything (via New York Newsday).

"It's not a start, it's a week," Jeter said. "I don't put much stock in a week, good or bad."

The reality of the situation is Jeter will turn 38 in two months. Very rarely will you find players who are capable of having a career resurgence so far removed from their prime years. 

So to all the Jeter fans out there, enjoy the way he is playing now, but don't be surprised or worried when the numbers come back down to where they have been the previous two years. 

If you want to be bash me for my Jeter analysis, feel free to yell at me on Twitter by clicking the link below. 

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