Heat vs. Bulls: Keys to Victory in Battle of the Eastern Elite

Tonight, the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will meet for the final time in the 2011-12 regular season (8 p.m. ET, TNT) at American Airlines Arena.  

With only a handful of games left in this lockout-shortened season, Chicago enters the highly anticipated contest with a two-and-a-half-game cushion over the Heat and the chance to clinch the Eastern Conference's top playoff seed.

The prevailing wisdom is that the next time the teams face each other will be in the Eastern Conference finals, so here are the keys for each team tonight with an eye towards their possible rematch in the NBA playoffs.

Bench Scoring

Much is made of Chicago's deep and prolific bench players, in fact, the Bulls' "bench mob" has carried the team through a season where reigning MVP, Derrick Rose, has missed 25 games due to a variety injuries (and is questionable for tonight's).  

The Bulls are 17-8 without Rose on the strength of a second unit that, versus other substitutes, ranks in the top 10 in rebounds, blocks and shooting percentage in the league. The impact of the Bulls bench in this series is undeniable and has certainly been the most influential factor in their previous three regular-season meetings this year.

In January's first matchup, with Luol Deng and C.J. Watson sidelined with injuries, the Heat's bench was able to equal the Bulls' 17-point second team effort with 17 of their own. Derrick Rose scored 34, including 12 from the charity strip, and every other Bulls starter had double-digit points. Rose missed a potential game-tying free throw with 22 seconds to play and the strength of the big three's 74 points was enough for the Heat to hold off the Bulls, 97-93.

However, in the last two meetings, the Bulls bench has dominated, outscoring the Heat's by a combined score of 103-22. John Lucas III had the big night March 14th in Chicago, with Derrick Rose absent, scoring 24 points to lead the Bulls to a 106-102 home victory. One week ago, again at the United Center, it was C.J. Watson (16 points) and Kyle Korver (17) that led Chicago back, forced overtime in dramatic fashion and overcame the Heat for the 96-86 victory.

Chicago's net bench advantage was a modest +9 last year in games Miami won but a staggering +33 in games Chicago won.  If the Heat want a win tonight, clearly they'll need some offensive contribution from Mike Miller, Shane Battier and company, bench production has been a season long issue for Coach Spoelstra, and is the main motivation behind his use of various rotations and 13 different starting line ups this year.     

Glass Work

In addition to offensive production, the Heat must match the rebounding effort of a Bulls team that leads the league in rebounds. Chicago's bigs, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, have outworked and outrebounded the Heat in the previous two encounters. Miami's lone 2012 victory came with a rebounding margin of merely one.  

It's not only the advantage Chicago has exploited with their size and depth advantage. Their ability to clog the lane and consistently contest shots or rebounds at the rim has also contributed to their success versus Miami. Tellingly, Miami's shooting percentage is down 13 percent (from 62 percent to 49 percent) in the restricted area when they face the Bulls.

Chicago's work rate not only causes problems for Miami, it enhances their offensive percentages. The Bulls rebounding dominance creates second-chance points and stretches defenses, giving their outside shooters open looks.  

In the three games against the Heat in 2012, the Bulls are shooting six percent better than their average from inside the paint and eight percent better from three-point land, when you consider that Chicago is already the third-best three-point shooting team in the league, it's a proven recipe for success.

As good as Miami's defense has been, though it is yet to return to the level they maintained during last year's run to the NBA Finals, they've been unable to effectively neutralize Chicago's big men inside. An overemphasis on protecting the glass has led to momentum changing and game-tying, open shots for Korver and Watson.

Miller, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are crucial toward tilting this aspect back in Miami's favor tonight and in future meetings.     

The Other "X-Factor"

Chicago has proven it can win if Chris Bosh plays well just as Miami can if he doesn't. But what Bosh does (or doesn't do) for the Heat is an unknown quantity few teams can prepare for or defend. A Heat win over the Bulls tonight and a run to the finals again this year would have to include Bosh being a major factor in Miami's offensive and defensive efforts.

Certainly, LeBron James deserves the credit of bringing the Heat back against the Nets earlier this week. His one-man, fourth-quarter performance was spectacular, but the comeback never happens without Bosh's 22-point, 15-rebound night. He preceded that with another double-double (16 and 14) versus the Knicks in Sunday's marquee matchup at Madison Square Garden.

Bosh causes all sorts of matchup issues for most teams, and the Bulls are no exception. He's an effective mid-range shooter but can also beat guys off the dribble and get to the basket (as he did so often against Boozer, Noah and Gibson in last year's Eastern Conference finals).  

This year, even while struggling with offensive consistency at times, Bosh has doubled his defensive commitment. And if the Heat are to beat the Bulls now or in the playoffs, Bosh must be an influence rebounding on both ends of the floor.     

Miami's Half-Court Game

Miami's offense is so potent on the break. When their defense intensifies, they force turnovers, contest shots and snag rebounds that feed into their transition game. On the break, with the game's two premier wing players, the Heat are nearly unstoppable.  

But when the pace of a game slows or hot shooting teams (like the Mavericks last year) dictate tempo, it forces Miami into half-court sets where they often look clunky, settle for jump shots and struggle to find rhythm. Of all the criticisms directed at the big-three era in Miami, this has been the most fair to point out and the most obvious flaw in the team.

Chicago, much like Dallas and their zone defense in last year's finals, has exploited Miami's half-court stagnancy close to perfection. They have the discipline on defense and the bodies to clog the lane, preventing Wade or James from their customary drives and slashes to the rim. If Miami is to win tonight and realize their championship dreams come June, they'll have to find better offense out of their half-court sets.

That's where most of the doubt remains for the Heat. LeBron's improved low-post game would not only add another facet to his diverse array of threats, but also open up shots on the outside for Mike Miller. Mario Chalmers' ability to handle and distribute the ball, create space and take a lot of the burden off Wade and James is vital toward the two superstars remaining fresh throughout the grueling playoff run.

These adjustments have been made from last year but have yet to flourish consistently in the regular season and have not been tested in the crucible of the postseason.

Miami's ultimate success, however, is predicated on Wade and James, and tonight, against an elite defense and their Eastern Conference foes, the ideal preview of what's to come in the NBA playoffs should be on display.