Kevin Garnett Will Return to the Celtics: 4 Factors That Prove It

Kevin Garnett will return to the Celtics.

The facts around his impending free agency all but guarantee it.

There are plenty of opinions out as to whether or not to keep or move on from KG, and most of them are valid.

However, if you really want to dig into what the most likely scenario is for the future of the “Big Ticket,” you need to separate your personal opinions and put your GM hat on.

You need to survey the NBA landscape. You need to account for the business of the game. You need to think like Danny Ainge.

Ainge has proven that he does not care about any emotional impact a player may or may not have on the team. We saw that with the Kendrick Perkins trade, and Bill Simmons leaked a rumor that Pierce was on the trading block until the last second as well.

Ainge also does not seem to take age into account. If he did, why would he trade away a young capable center in Perkins instead of giving in to his agent’s demands, and then bring in the oldest player in the league, Shaq, and a past-his-prime player in Jermaine O’Neal?

Not to mention, I have already acknowledged that the Celtics have already theoretically gotten younger this year with the emergence of Avery Bradley.

Contrary to popular opinion, the fact of the matter is neither age nor intangible qualities are going to determine whether or not Garnett re-signs. So what will determine his future?

Here are the four pieces of evidence that show he is likely to be back in green next year.

1. He Is the Best Power Forward (PF) Available

The one thing I keep hearing from Celtics fans is that the team has to get younger. The second thing I often hear is that the Celtics have the cash to bring in solid free agents. What I don’t hear is people using critical thinking—asking themselves what would make the team better?

Let’s say hypothetically, Kevin Garnett had not been on the Celtics these past few years, and Danny Ainge was in the market right now for a PF.

I don’t think anyone would disagree that if you had three starters on your squad such as the likes of Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Paul Pierce (and no, he will not retire this year), that you would want to bring in the best possible power forward and center to complement those three.

If you look at who is actually out there in free agency, you would clearly see that Kevin Garnett was statistically your best option. Let’s compare this past year’s averages (numbers rounded to the nearest whole) with some of the best available PF free agents:

Kevin Garnett: 16 PTS, 9 REB, 1 BLK

Michael Beasley: 11 PTS, 4 REB, 0 BLK

Carl Landry: 12 PTS, 5 REB, 0 BLK

J.J. Hickson: 7 PTS, 6 REB, 1 BLK

Kris Humphries: 13 PTS, 11 REB, 1 BLK

*I left Tim Duncan off of this list because I see him re-signing with the Spurs, but his averages are 15/9/1.

Now back to reality. You have a guy who is clearly at the top of the free-agent class who knows the Doc Rivers system. There is no risk of him not meshing well with the coaching staff or other players. That in itself brings value to a player.

And no, that was not an argument about character, intangible qualities or leadership abilities. That is a tangible factor of a player’s mental capacity and familiarity for a system.

2. a New Contract Will Not Be a Problem Financially

History is often a good predictor of the future. That’s why Vegas spends most of its time studying algorithms to find trends.

There is no need for any algorithm here, just some digging.

Here are five active players with a successful history and strong reputation like Garnett. The contract values beside them are their most recent deals, and all of them were signed after the age of 35.

Grant Hill: 1yr, $6.5m

Marcus Camby: 2 yrs, $21m

Ben Wallace: 2 yrs, $4.3m

Jason Kidd: 3 yrs, $24.5m

Steve Nash: 2 yrs, $22m

The biggest contract on this list is Steve Nash’s deal. Steve Nash is a two-time MVP and one of the all-time greatest point guards of our generation.

Yes, Kevin Garnett is one of the best defensive players of all time, but it is commonly feared that big men have more wear and tear on their bodies than guards. For that reason, it is unlikely that Garnett will exceed Nash’s deal.

Though Garnett is having a throwback season this year, no GM in the league is going to forget his injury problems over the past couple of years. This means it is doubtful that anyone will offer the 35-year-old veteran anything over a two-year deal.

However, let’s say Garnett will set the price for older players in this league. How much would he be looking at?

Using history as an indicator, I would suggest no more than a two-year, $23 million deal, but like I said earlier, maybe much less.

If this were the case, the Celtics could still afford him. With only around $34 million committed right now if Brandon Bass picks up his option, the Celtics could sign Garnett to an $11-12 million per year deal and still be far enough under the tax number to afford a quality center and added bench support.

It's just good business.

3. He Has Nowhere Else to Go

Could someone easily overpay Garnett? Absolutely. However, I don’t think he wants to spend his final years in the league kicking around in Charlotte or Sacramento.

I don’t know what’s going on in KG’s head, so I will not say, “I’m positive he wants to stay” or, “there is no way he’d want to come back here.”

That being said, I think it’s a safe assumption that Garnett  truly wants to win and absolutely hates losing.

That fact alone eliminates more than half of the teams from contention. Garnett will only go somewhere that he feels he can collect another ring.

So here would be the preferred landing spots for Garnett:

Chicago: If Garnett were to leave, one of the most ideal places for him to land would be Chicago. He would get to reunite with Coach Thibodeau, and he would be familiar with the area after attending high school there.

The problem is that Chicago cannot afford him because they may already be into the luxury tax, and Garnett would most likely lose playing time to Carlos Boozer.

Miami: He could join the most talented team in a beautiful part of the country, but there are problems there, too. Miami can’t afford a big-time free agent at the moment, and they are okay depth-wise with big men. Also, I think KG would feel insulted sitting behind Chris Bosh.

Dallas: The Mavericks are the most likely team that could swipe KG away from Boston right now.

The positives are that they could afford him and still be under the tax number, Garnett would get to enjoy some of the best perks any NBA player can get thanks to the care of owner Mark Cuban, and he could finally have a good chance of starting in the center role next to Dirk Nowitzki.

The problem for Dallas is that they have a ton of holes to plug, and Garnett shouldn’t be the highest priority on their list. Kidd, Delonte West and Jason Terry are UFA’s this year, so the Mavs have to address their guard situation first.

LA Lakers: The Lakers are a very talented team with a winning tradition, not to mention the great environment of SoCal. The problem with this is right now is that the Lakers don’t need another aging big man. They are also expected to be the most taxed team in the NBA next year, so the money is nonexistent.

Oklahoma City: This is a team that could possibly afford Garnett, and I’m sure Garnett wouldn’t mind playing alongside Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and his former teammate Perkins.

The dilemma here is that Garnett would easily push the Thunder into the tax region, and I’m not positive they want to go that route. Also, Garnett might not fit in well with their younger and faster style of play. I could see the Garnett/Serge Ibaka starting role controversy potentially causing issues as well.

Boston is not far away. They look like the third-best team in the East right now, and that is after battling through injuries all season. As Rondo and Bradley develop, all the Celtics need is a quality center, which they can afford even if they sign Garnett and some improved depth.

If Garnett looks at all of his possible options, there is no doubt that Boston is the best option available for him, and it's one of the only places he can get close to, if not everything, he wants in terms of a contract.

I’m not sure if having to pack up your bags and move your family holds any weight in making a decision like this, but it is at least bonus points for Boston.

4.Ainge Has Nothing to Trade.

Zip. Zilch. Zero.

Let’s say Bass picks up his player option and stays a Celtic. That means you would only have five players on your roster, and none of them are tradable.

Ainge has repeatedly said that Rondo is not on the table; well now he’s definitely not. It looks like the Celtics are going into this offseason with the idea that Rondo and Bradley are the answers at the No. 1 and 2 spots.

Bradley is only set to make just over a million dollars this year, making him an organizationally valuable piece. Secondly, for being one of the best point guards in the NBA, Rondo has one of the most team-friendly contracts out there. He is only set to make $11 million next season.

Pierce is untouchable. No, not because he should retire as a Celtic, but because no one is going to want to pick up a 35-year-old with about $32 million left on his deal for the next two years.

Finally, let’s be real here. How much can you get for a package of Bass and JaJuan Johnson? I don’t even have to answer that question, do I?

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These factors will add up this season to almost guarantee KG will be knocking back on the parquet floor next year.

None of the reasons involve fan input, sentimental value or perceived motivational impacts to the rest of the team. For Ainge, this is about putting the best team on the floor and cold, hard business.

All things considered, I would definitely feel comfortable going down to Vegas and placing my entire paycheck on green.