Brian Wilson Injury: The San Francisco Giants' Replacement-Closer Dilemma

This may be an unconventional way to start a fantasy column, but I have no definitive answer for whom will become the San Francisco Giants' season-long closer, now that Brian Wilson has been shelved with a major elbow injury (per MLB.com).

For now, I'll simply buy skipper Bruce Bochy's plan for a committee approach to closing games, as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle's Bruce Jenkins.

But here's an educated guess of how things will shake out, long-term, among the four leading candidates:

1. Santiago Casilla

After news of Wilson's prognosis broke on Saturday night, the immediate speculation from various news and fantasy sites pegged Casilla (1.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP last year) as the interim replacement, despite having only 12 career saves and an 8.0 K/9 in eight MLB seasons (270 innings total).

Does Casilla have the most back-end experience of any other arm in San Fran's bullpen? Most likely. Does Casilla have the stuff and mental makeup of a 10-save asset this season? Probably. Should he get first crack at becoming the team's permanent option for 2012? Judgment call.

Odds of posting the most Giants saves by season's end: 6-1

2. Jeremy Affeldt

The veteran southpaw had a solid campaign last year (3-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 54 K's in 61.2 innings, 7.9 K/9)—just like Casilla. But once again, it's fair to ask if Affeldt (25 saves in 10 MLB seasons) has the best overall game to land this coveted gig?

For starters, he's only one of two left-handers currently in the San Francisco bullpen (along with Javier Lopez) and may be the group's best long-relief option, too.

Then there's the revelation that Affeldt has yet to post stellar back-to-back campaigns in his career—which doesn't necessarily bode well for players thrust into high-pressure situations of permanence for the first time.

Odds of posting the most Giants saves by season's end: 12-1

3. Heath Hembree

Hembree comes straight out of central casting for this opportunity. He's 6'4", built like a tank and has the requisite high heat of a dominant future closer. The numbers are also there for the 23-year-old righty: 1.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 104/26 K/BB, 13.9 K/9 and 43 career saves in minor league ball. 

The rub: With just 67.1 innings and 69 pro appearances under his belt, Hembree (the Giants' No. 3 prospect) might be a stronger full-time candidate in 2013. The question then becomes: Does San Francisco deviate from its Hembree plans, especially if a more palatable option already rests with the parent club?

Odds of posting the most Giants saves by season's end: 10-1

4. Sergio Romo

It's a wonder that other bullpen-deficient clubs never traded for Romo, whose path to fantasy stardom has been blocked by Wilson for some time. In four full MLB seasons, spanning 178 innings, Romo tallied 16 wins, a 2.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and Cliff Lee-esque K/BB ratio of 214/38.

From most angles, Romo completely works as a full-time closer. But if that was the case, wouldn't Bochy have proclaimed Romo as the back-end ace by now?

At 5'10", is he too short? Is his beard not thick enough to be worthy of succeeding Wilson? Is Romo an injury risk himself, after missing some time in spring training with soreness? Does the club really believe that Romo is irreplaceable (and thus better suited) as an eighth-inning option?

Bottom line: Romo should be the full-time successor, when compared to Affeldt and Casilla. Whether that honor occurs in April, May or late July...who knows? But he's the still the best candidate for 2012.

Odds of posting the most Giants saves by season's end: 4-1

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.