San Francisco Giants: 3 Ripple Effects of the Matt Cain Contract

In 2007, the San Francisco Giants scored the best pitcher on the free-agent market for a gaudy nine-figure sum.  That contract prevented the Giants from chasing premier offensive threats during a time of offensive ineptitude in San Francisco.  In 2010, the Giants left their nine-figure pitcher off the playoff roster and won the World Series. Go figure.  

Last week, the Giants locked in the local fan favorite to a gaudy nine-figure sum.  Regardless of what you think of the Matt Cain deal, it's impact will be felt for years to come.  As with Barry Zito, the most exciting part of the contract will be measuring its impact in every big move the Giants make between now and 2017. 

It's still way to early to predict the future.  But we can do it anyways.  Here are a few players who will feel the effects of this contract in years to come.  

Tim Lincecum

Lincecum and Cain are forever connected in the minds of Giants fans.  Two home-grown first-round prospects who carried a flailing offense to the city' first world championship.  They were the future of the Giants franchise in 2007.  They are currently the team's two biggest stars.  In 15 years, they will likely be the two most memorable names from an unforgettable era.  

This is why thought of Tim Lincecum's impending free agency were at the forefront of many minds when news of Cain's extension broke.  Will Timmy want more?  Will the Giants be able to afford it?  Should they even try?  With the amount of chatter going on, you would think Lincecum was about to hit free agency tomorrow.  In reality, he has two full years left in San Francisco, an eternity in the life of a starting pitcher.  However, barring any major changes in Lincecum's ability, the Cain deal will likely serve as a starting point for Lincecum's negotiations.  

Lincecum will undoubtedly want more money.  As special a place as Cain holds in the heart of fans, Lincecum is the ace, the winner of two Cy Youngs, and the face of the franchise, the Christy Mathewson to Cain's Joe McGinnity.  

Lincecum will also turn 30 in 2014.  His control, velocity and strikeout numbers have trended down seasons in a row.  No doubt, he's one of the top-five starters in the league, but when it comes to $150 million, you must be picky.  A lot can happen between now and then, but Matt Cain's contract could prevent Lincecum from being a lifelong Giant.  

Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels is the only other pitcher on Cain's level that will hit free agency after this season.  An argument could be made for Zack Greinke if he puts up a Cy Young-caliber season, but for now, Hamels will be the top dog.  

Matt Cain repeatedly stated that he only wanted "market value."  Assuming Cain's deal represents market value for a pitcher of that quality, Cole Hamels and the Phillies at least have a starting point.  Hamels' and Cain's stats are remarkably similar.  Cain has almost 200 more IP, but Hamels is a year older and left-handed.  In dollar amounts, these differences are probably negligible.  

The Phillies did not reach an agreement with Hamels before Opening Day, a sign that Hamels is likely looking for six figures.  Given the Phillies precarious salary cap situation with huge money tied up in their aging roster, there's a chance Hamels finds his way out of town.  

Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey

...and any other star that the Giants happen to develop in the next three years.  Disaffected fans are keeping a list of all the players the Giants have passed on because of the money tied up in Barry Zito.  While still a few years off, offensive stars Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval will hit free agency during the term of Matt Cain's contract.  Will they require superstar money?  Will the Cain deal (and perhaps another $25 million thrown at Lincecum) force one of these guys out the door?  

When you throw in Madison Bumgarner, the numbers get boggling.  And unrealistic.  Few teams can afford to pay five players $15 to $20 million.  The Giants are not one of them.  At least some of this string of successful farmhands will be off the team within four to five years, whether through free agency or just statistical attrition.  

This exercise becomes unnecessary at some point.  The Giants are trying to win the World Series in 2012, not 2017.  Dozens of chips will yet fall.  However, guaranteed money is just that—guaranteed.  The Cain contract will at least influence the discussion for years to come.