Stephen Strasburg: Could the Phenom Actually Make a Run at 2012 NL Cy Young?
Stephen Strasburg is already one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball, despite the fact that he's thrown just 99 innings in his major league career.
He burst onto the scene in 2010, compiling a record of 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA. The most notable of those starts was probably his very first, as he struck out 14 batters in his debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
In 24 innings the following season, Strasburg put together a 1-1 record with a 1.50 ERA. He then obviously needed Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the remainder of the season.
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He seems to be back strong in 2012, as he pitched seven strong innings against the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day. He did not pick up a victory because the Washington Nationals needed a late-inning rally to take the lead.
The Nationals have decided to place an innings limit on Strasburg this season, as they do not want to risk ruining the right arm of arguably the best pitching prospect of all time.
When Strasburg hits the 160-inning mark this season, the Nationals will shut him down. It doesn't matter where the team is in the playoff race, or during what month it happens.
As soon as he hits 160, he'll be done.
That mark may come sooner than expected, as manager Davey Johnson has said that the number will not affect how early Strasburg gets pulled from starts.
It may be a little early in his career to start talking Cy Young Awards but, hey, why not? Even on an innings limit this season, he has a shot.
As per Baseball Reference, Strasburg's 162-game average has him posting an 11-8 record with a 2.45 ERA in 187 innings (34 starts). He'd also have 229 strikeouts.
The low win total has a lot to do with the fact that the Nationals offense has been abysmal the past three seasons, so his win total will stand to increase in the future.
The last Cy Young winner with a low win total was Felix Hernandez, when he posted a 13-12 record in 2010. He pitched in 249.2 innings, though.
That will be Strasburg's biggest hurdle in winning a Cy Young this season, as only three starting pitchers in history have won a Cy Young Award when pitching under 200 innings—Fernando Valenzuela, Rick Sutcliffe (kind of) and David Cone.
In a strike-shortened season in 1981, Valenzuela led the National League with 25 starts. He compiled 192.1 innings during the 110-game season.
He went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA. He led the league with 180 strikeouts, and his WHIP was 1.045.
Sutcliffe began the 1984 season with the Cleveland Indians, but was traded to the Chicago Cubs during the season.
His full season totals had him tossing 244.2 innings with a 20-6 record and a 3.64 ERA.
He won the NL Cy Young Award, though, by compiling 150.1 innings as a member of the Cubs. The low innings total was overlooked because of his stellar 16-1 record and 2.69 ERA.
The only AL Cy Young winner to toss less than 200 innings was Cone in the strike-shortened season of 1994.
In 171.2 innings (23 starts), Cone went 16-5 with a 2.94 ERA.
Strasburg's 2012 season would have to resemble the three aforementioned seasons to even be considered for a Cy Young.
I see his season most resembling Cone's, with the only exception being 11 fewer innings and a lower ERA. Strasburg's ability to strike out batters will keep his ERA below 2.70.
If Strasburg can put together a 15-win season while posting a 2.70 or better ERA and 180-plus strikeouts during his 160 innings this year, he will definitely garner consideration for the NL Cy Young.
He'll definitely receive votes, but the voters will have to overlook the fact that he pitched on a strict innings limit.
Don't be upset if he doesn't win the award, though, Nationals fans. He'll have plenty of opportunities in the future to take home the hardware.



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