2012 NBA Mock Draft: Harrison Barnes and Early Picks with Massive Bust Potential
Although the top couple of picks have been pretty good bets to become stars in the NBA over the past couple seasons, there are plenty of landmines to contend with early in the NBA Draft. It is an inexact science—to say the least—and a botched selection early in the round can really set some rebuilding teams back a few years.
Players like Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of Kentucky look to be the first guys off the board, and the general consensus is that they will be studs in the NBA. After that, though, there is no shortage of question marks. A player could be an All-Star just as easily as he could be a bust, so teams will have to do their due diligence.
Along with a full, first-round mock draft, here is some analysis on the highly-touted players that are most likely to flop.
*Draft order is based on combination of current and projected standings
1. Charlotte Bobcats—Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Davis has already garnered comparisons to Hall of Famer Bill Walton, so the expectations are lofty, but he has all the tools to be the NBA's next big star.
2. Washington Wizards—Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
Kidd-Gilchrist doesn't have the ceiling of his teammate Davis, but he can do a little bit of everything and will be a great running mate for John Wall.
3. New Orleans Hornets—Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
Robinson was the star for the national runner-up Kansas Jayhawks, and he will replace the interior presence the Hornets lost when David West left.
4. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ)—Andre Drummond, C, UConn
The Trail Blazers whiffed when they took center Greg Oden No. 1 overall a few years back, but they will look to atone for that with another center in Drummond.
5. Toronto Raptors - Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC
There is no question that North Carolina small forward Harrison Barnes has all the talent in the world, but there is reason to believe that he won't translate to the next level. Barnes had a big sophomore season for the Tar Heels as he averaged over 17 points per game, as well as five rebounds, but his performance in the NCAA Tournament without point guard Kendall Marshall was alarming.
Barnes is a big (6'8") and skilled player, so he should be able to create his own shots, but with the inexperienced Stilman White running the point in the big dance, he struggled mightily. Barnes is the type of player who is most effective when he is using his large body to get to the rim, but he settled for contested jumpers far too often and paid for it.
Barnes shot under 40 percent in three of his four tournament games and was an awful 6-for-23 from long distance. Barnes' shooting stroke is obviously a bit inconsistent, and if he refuses to get into the paint at the NBA level, then he isn't going to become a special player. If he's put in the right circumstance, then perhaps he can succeed, but I don't like his chances as a go-to guy for the Toronto Raptors.
6. Sacramento Kings—Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
The Kings have a good group of young players in Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton, but a pure shooter like Lamb could bring it all together.
7. Detroit Pistons - Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
Austin Rivers entered his freshman season at Duke to much fanfare as he was a highly-touted prospect and the son of Boston Celtics head coach Doc Rivers. For the most part, he didn't disappoint as he averaged 15.5 points per game. The Blue Devils as a whole fell short in a big way, however, as they were ousted by Lehigh in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Rivers is an exciting player capable of registering some highlight reel dunks and lighting up the scoreboard when he gets hot, but he has plenty of deficiencies as well. For one, he isn't the greatest shooter in the world; he shot just 43 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from long range on the season.
Those are numbers that can be improved, but he simply isn't a pure shooter at this point.
He also is very weak from the charity stripe for a shooting guard as he hit only 65.8 percent of his freebies. Rivers isn't a playmaker and he is the type of player who needs to have the ball in his hands and get off a high volume of shots. The Detroit Pistons will be patient with him if they get him, but efficiency could be a real issue.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers—Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Losing LeBron James wasn't easy, but the Cavs have a great foundation for the future with Kyrie Irving, and Sullinger will give him a big man to collapse the defense with.
9. Utah Jazz (via NJ from GS)—Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
The Jazz are a team with a great interior of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, but they need a perimeter player like Beal to keep the defense honest.
10. Milwaukee Bucks—Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
Milwaukee made a bold move when it dealt Andre Bogut for Monta Ellis, and it will take a physical big player like Moultrie to replace the departed Aussie's paint presence.
11. Portland Trail Blazers—Kendall Marshall, PG, UNC
The Raymond Felton experiment has been a major failure in Portland, so the Blazers will turn to a polished, young point guard like Marshall to run the offense.
12. New Orleans Hornets (via LAC from MIN)—Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
Lillard is one of the bigger unknowns in the draft as he attended tiny Weber State, but the Hornets hope he can make up for some of what they lost when they dealt Chris Paul.
13. Utah Jazz—Perry Jones III, F, Baylor
Had Baylor forward Perry Jones III declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman season, there is a great chance that he would have been a top-five pick. He would have had a lot to work on, but it probably would have been worth it. Jones opted to stay in school instead and didn't make any progress, so his value inevitably slipped.
As a sophomore, Jones dropped slightly in scoring at 13.5 points per game, increased his rebounding a bit at 7.6 per contest and saw a big drop in shooting percentage from nearly 55 percent to 50 percent. The biggest knock on Jones; however, was that he didn't play big in the biggest games and that was somewhat confirmed by the fact that he scored nine total points over the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
At 6'11", Jones is the type of athletic big man that teams are always looking for, but his lack of physicality leads me to believe he could be another Brandan Wright or Anthony Randolph. Both of them are tall, but they are also all style and no substance.
Jones doesn't have the compete level that I like to see in a lottery pick, and I believe that will be his downfall.
14. Phoenix Suns—John Henson, PF, UNC
Things are uncertain with point guard Steve Nash, but the Suns still like to run and would benefit from a mobile big man like Henson.
15. Houston Rockets (via NY)—Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
The Rockets have desperately been looking for a center since Yao Ming retired, and they'll get an intriguing one here in the 7'0" Leonard.
16. New Jersey Nets (via HOU)—Terrence Jones, F, Kentucky
It remains to be seen whether the Nets will be able to keep point guard Deron Williams, but Jones gives them a versatile forward who can dominate the paint.
17. Boston Celtics—Tyler Zeller, PF/C, UNC
The Celtics would prefer a true center, which Zeller isn't, but he has an excellent offensive feel and would fit in really well as a complementary piece.
18. Denver Nuggets—Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
Denver is solid everywhere put great nowhere, so the Nuggets will add another utility player to the puzzle in the form of Harkless.
19. Atlanta Hawks—Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
Atlanta has had a ton of talent and athleticism for quite some time, but Nicholson would give them a big forward who can dominate down low or step out and hit jumpers.
20. Philadelphia 76ers—Dion Waiters, G, Syracuse
Waiters going to his hometown 76ers is a popular pick in many mock drafts, but it makes a lot of sense as the combo guard would complement Jrue Holiday well.
21. Houston Rockets (via DAL)—Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
After nabbing a much-needed big earlier in the draft, the Rockets will opt for more size in Taylor, although he is a player with a strong inside-out game.
22. Indiana Pacers—Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
The Pacers may very well be the deepest team in the league, but Lamb would give them something they don't have—a deadly shooter off the bench.
23. Memphis Grizzlies—Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
Memphis has a very strong starting lineup, but there is a noticeable hole at shooting guard, so an athletic and explosive player like Ross would be an awesome fit.
24. Boston Celtics (via OKC from LAC)—Royce White, F, Iowa State
The Celtics are an aging team in general, so they can afford to get younger everywhere, making a promising combo forward in White a logical pick.
25. Orlando Magic—Draymond Green, F, Michigan State
Orlando desperately needs to bring in some more talent in order to convince Dwight Howard to stay long term, and Green could be a fantastic complement to him.
26. Cleveland Cavaliers (via LAL)—John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
There are a lot of areas in which the Cavs can improve, but with Kyrie Irving in the fold and Jared Sullinger being taken earlier, a pure shooter like Jenkins is a must.
27. Golden State Warriors (via SA)—Tony Wroten, G, Washington
The Warriors really changed the makeup of their team when they dealt Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut, but Wroten would give them another exciting combo guard who can score.
28. Miami Heat—Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
It's no secret that center is Miami's biggest weakness, so the Heat could very well roll the dice on a risky but talented player in Melo.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder—Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
The Thunder are about as complete of a team as there is in the NBA, but it could use a little more offensive punch in the front court. Ezeli might provide that.
30. Chicago Bulls—William Buford, SG, Ohio State
The search for a quality shooting guard continues for the Bulls as Rip Hamilton has been injured much of the season, making Buford an intriguing selection.
