Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Projecting When Each Team's Top Player Is Taken

As fantasy players scramble to get their drafts done before the regular season begins on Wednesday in Japan, here is a team-by-team list of where the first player from each team should be drafted.

If you’re a Red Sox or Tigers fan, you’re going to be excited that you can draft players from your favorite team early in the draft.

If you’re an Astros or Athletics fan…I’d look somewhere other than your team if you want to win your fantasy league.

The projections I make are based on 10-team Rotisserie or Head-to-Head leagues with standard statistics.

Good luck!

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

Justin Upton finally had his breakout season in 2011, hitting .289 with 31 homers, 88 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases.

He’s only 24 years old, and with his talent there’s every reason to think he’s still getting better.

He’s got that rare combination of power and speed, which makes it possible that he’ll be one of the best steals of the draft, even though he’ll be taken towards the very top. The only thing holding him back is his low RBI total.

Upton should be one of the first outfielders off the board.

Projection: Late-first round to early-second round pick

Atlanta Braves: Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla’s home run total has increased three years in a row to 36 last year for the Braves.

He hits for a low average, but has a career .343 on-base percentage—even with a .311 mark last year.

36 home runs is the most you’re likely to get from a second baseman, and since he won’t kill your team with the rest of his statistics, feel comfortable taking him as the fourth second baseman in your draft (behind Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler, in that order).

Projection: Fourth to sixth-round pick

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters

In some leagues outfielder Adam Jones will be selected before Wieters, but I chose to write about Wieters because he has more upside than Jones does.

Wieters finally showed what scouts have been waiting for since he came up to the big leagues.

In his third major league season, Wieters made the All-Star Game, hitting 22 home runs with a .268 average.

Personally, and maybe this is just a gut feeling, I think Wieters is going to have a breakout year. He might end up being the best fantasy catcher this year, but he’ll probably be the fifth or sixth catcher taken.

If you can get him in the middle rounds of your draft, this could be the steal of the draft.

Projection: Eighth to tenth-round pick

Boston Red Sox: Adrian Gonzalez

The Red Sox will have three first and second-round picks in 2012 fantasy leagues, but Gonzalez is likely to be the first among them to be taken.

Gonzalez was a fantasy beast in 2011, putting up a .338 batting average, 27 home runs, 117 RBIs and a .410 on-base percentage.

There’s no reason to think he won’t put up similar numbers this year, and he’ll probably even add to his home run total.

Some owners might be tempted to take Dustin Pedroia before Gonzalez due to scarcity at the second base position, but I’m a believer in drafting the best player available in the first round, and there’s no doubt that Gonzalez will give you better production than Pedroia. I also believe that it’s imperative to draft one of the six elite first basemen (Cabrera, Fielder, Gonzalez, Pujols, Teixeira and Votto).

Projection: Mid-first round to early-second round pick

Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro

The Cubs’ shortstop has perhaps the most upside of any fantasy shortstop this year and is a solid option to take behind the top three shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes).

At only 22 years old, Castro has hit over .300 in both of his major league seasons and has 32 stolen bases.

He had 207 hits in 2011, and at such a young age it would not be surprising to see his numbers improve in 2012.

I wouldn’t bank on him being an impact fantasy player with his low power numbers (he has 13 career home runs) and a low on-base percentage (.343 for his career), but with the dearth of fantasy shortstops available, I would take him fourth at the position and hope for a breakout year.

Projection: Late-third to fifth-round pick

Chicago White Sox: Paul Konerko

If I asked you to give me the name of a first baseman who has averaged a .306 average, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs and a .391 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, I bet you wouldn’t name Paul Konerko.

And yet, those are exactly the numbers he’s very quietly put up since 2010.

Konerko is as solid as first basemen get, and if one of the “elite” first basemen such as Albert Pujols or Joey Votto get snatched up, Konerko might be the best fifth-round pick in the draft. Take him.

Projection: Fourth to sixth-ound pick

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto

Joey Votto is not going to last very long in fantasy drafts.

Despite some regression from his 2010 MVP season, Votto still led the National League in on-base percentage for the second year in a row in 2011 at .416.  He had a .947 OPS with 29 home runs.

He’s one of the best first basemen in the game and will be taken in the first round of drafts, without a doubt, especially in leagues that count slugging percentage or OPS (his career slugging percentage is .550).

Take Votto and don’t look back.

Projection: Mid- to late-first round pick

Cleveland Indians: Carlos Santana

25-year-old Carlos Santana’s first full season in the big leagues established him as one of the top two or three catchers in baseball.

Despite a .239 average, he hit 27 homers, drove in 79 runs, and had a .351 on-base percentage thanks to 97 walks.

He’s not elite yet due to his low batting average, but he’s still young and his numbers should improve in 2012.

Take him as a top three catcher in your league and swallow his low batting average for his above-average power numbers.

Projection: Fifth round pick

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo has two things going for him in fantasy baseball.

First, he’s a terrific all-around baseball player who will give you average, home runs, RBIs, some steals and high on-base and slugging percentages.

Second, he plays one of the shallowest positions in baseball at shortstop.

Beyond Tulo, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, there’s not much depth to be found at shortstop, which boosts Troy’s value even more.

Even without the lack of depth at shortstop, Tulo was a first-round pick.

Projection: Mid-first round pick

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera is both a real-life and fantasy MVP candidate.

He’s going to put up a high average with plenty of home runs and RBIs.

Depending on how Jim Leyland positions him and Prince Fielder in the order, either his runs or RBIs should increase this year as well. If he hits in front of Fielder, he’ll be more likely to be driven home, and if he hits behind Fielder, he’s likely to find someone on base when he comes up to bat.

His move to third base this year helps as well, because he’ll have more position flexibility for owners who want to draft another first baseman instead of a third baseman.

He should be ready for Opening Day even with his eye injury, but even if he isn’t, he’ll return shortly and will be worth the wait.

Projection: No. 1 or 2 overall pick

Houston Astros: Wandy Rodriguez

I hesitate to even write about Wandy Rodriguez, because he’s at best a back-of-the-rotation starter in fantasy, but I needed to write about a player for all thirty teams, so here we go.

Here are the positives of Wandy: He’s had an ERA below 4.00 four seasons in a row and he has average WHIP rates.

Here are the negatives: He’s had 11 wins the last two years in a row, and with the Astros as awful as they are, it’ll be an uphill battle for him to hit double-digits this year. He also doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters.

At 33 years old, Rodriguez is almost perpetually on the trading block. If he does happen to get traded to a contender this year, his value would go up because of greater wins potential.

Projection: Late-round pick

Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer is a future star, but I’m not sure whether I think he’s overrated or underrated in fantasy.

The Royals’ youngster played in 128 games last year and hit 19 home runs with 11 stolen bases. He hit some bombs, and you can see that he is a star in the making.

However, I’m not sure he deserves to be taken ahead of someone like Paul Konerko or Kevin Youkilis yet.

So, if you can get Hosmer in the seventh or eighth round, I would go for it.

But, if Konerko or Youk are still on the table, opt for the experience.

Projection: Sixth to eighth-round pick

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Albert Pujols

Even though Pujols will no longer have the protection of Matt Holliday batting behind him, he’s still a fantasy monster who will not last longer than the first two picks.

He’s (almost) everything you could want in a fantasy player:

High batting average? Check.

Home runs? Check.

RBIs? Check.

On-base percentage? Check.

Low strikeouts? Check.

The only room for improvement would be stolen bases, but let's not be greedy.

If Pujols is available when you’re on the clock, don’t think.

Take him.

Projection: No. 1 or 2 overall pick

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp had his breakout year in 2011.

Finishing second in the NL MVP voting, Kemp hit .324 with 39 homers, 126 RBIs and a .986 OPS.

He’s without a doubt one of the best outfielders on the board and a surefire first-ound pick, but be careful about valuing him too high.

This is the first time he’s had such high numbers (his previous career high in homers was 28), and I’d like to see him put up one more season of those numbers before I take him over Albert Pujols or Jose Bautista.

Some people will do it anyway, but I’d take Miguel Cabrera, Pujols and Bautista over Kemp this year, but I’d be happy to have Kemp at No. 4 overall.

Projection: No. 2 to 4 overall pick

Miami Marlins: Hanley Ramirez

Ramirez had an awful year in 2011, but I personally think he’s going to bounce back with a strong 2012 despite his move to third base (which only enhances his value because he’ll be eligible at shortstop and third).

He’s moving to a new ballpark with a better team and a new manager.

If you buy that he’ll bounce back to have a .300/25/90 year with 30 stolen bases, then he’s clearly the second best shortstop in the draft and worthy of an early-round pick.

Projection: Late-second to third-round pick

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun

There are many questions yet to be answered about Ryan Braun heading into the 2012 season that will make fantasy owners anxious about drafting him.

Was he using performance-enhancing drugs during his 2011 MVP season, and if he stopped, will his performance suffer?

Will his numbers suffer without Prince Fielder in the Brewers’ lineup behind him?

Despite the questions surrounding Braun and the Brewers, he is still a surefire first-round pick who will provide you with a high average, home runs and stolen bases. Temper your expectations from last year’s numbers, but still don’t hesitate to draft him early.

Projection: Mid-first round pick

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer

I really like Joe Mauer this year.

He’s back from injury and is going to play a good amount of first base and DH instead of catching to keep him on the field.

His power seemingly evaporated after the Twins’ move to Target Field, but even if his power numbers remain low, he’s going to be good for a high average and on-base percentage at a position where that is rarely found.

He’s not the top catcher available anymore, but he’s certainly top five.

Projection: Eighth to tenth round

New York Mets: David Wright

There won’t be a ton of Mets finding themselves on fantasy teams this year, but David Wright will be one of them.

Keep an eye on Wright, who has had injury problems for the last couple of years and has already had back and abdominal issues in Spring Training.

However, he’s shown in the past that he is capable of being a top-three third baseman when healthy, and he will be helped out by the new alterations to Citi Field, which brought the fences in and/or lowered them throughout the field, particularly in left.

He’s a health risk, but there’s enough upside in Wright to take him as a top-eight third baseman.

Projection: Third to fifth-round pick

New York Yankees: Robinson Cano

The Yankees have four potential first and second-round fantasy picks on the team, and Robinson Cano should be drafted first among them. (The others are Curtis Granderson, C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira).

Cano is valuable not just because he his likely to put up a .320-330 average, hit 25-30 home runs, drive in over 100 runs and score over 100 runs, but also because he plays at a relatively weak fantasy position.

There are arguably only four elite second basemen in baseball right now (Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Dan Uggla), so it’s important for fantasy owners to try to select one of them early in drafts.

Projection: Mid-first round pick

Oakland Athletics: Jemile Weeks

Oakland’s another team I didn’t really want to write about for this article, but Jemile Weeks is actually a pretty solid sleeper at second base for an owner who didn’t take one of the top second basemen available and chooses to wait until late in the draft to select one.

In his rookie year, Jemile Weeks hit .303 in 97 games with 22 stolen bases.

He has almost no power at all, but if you’re looking for steals late in the draft, you could do much worse than Jemile Weeks.

Projection: Late-round pick

Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Halladay

Despite Roy Halladay’s down spring, he’s still one of the top three starting pitchers available.

He will not strike out as many batters as Clayton Kershaw or Justin Verlander, which will be the strike against him in leagues that place an emphasis on Ks (no pun intended), but he is an incredibly efficient pitcher. He rarely walks hitters, which keeps his WHIP down, and he throws deep into ballgames, which will increase his innings pitched.

Halladay’s the best pitcher in perhaps the best rotation in baseball, and will not last long in your fantasy draft.

Projection: Late-first to early-second round pick

Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen will be one of the top outfielders taken in the draft, and deservedly so.

He’s one of those all-around outfielders who will help you in almost every category.

Despite hitting .259 in 2011, his on-base percentage was .364 and he stole as many bases as he hit home runs (23).

He’s not going to single-handedly win you a category, but he’s going to help with most of them.

Projection: Third to fourth-round pick

San Diego Padres: Cory Luebke

Cory Luebke’s definitely a starting pitcher I would target as a sleeper late in my draft.

He’s going to begin the season as a starter for the first time, after pitching in 46 games (17 starts) last year.

He had just a 3.29 ERA in 2011 and struck out 154 in 139.2 innings pitched with a 1.067 WHIP.

It’s unlikely those kind of numbers will hold up in a full season of starting, but even if he’s a little worse, that’s top-20 value for a late round pick.

Projection: Late-round pick

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum

I don’t really think I need to extoll the virtues of Tim Lincecum as a pitcher, but I will offer two reasons to be cautious about Tim Lincecum.

First, the Giants’ offense, despite having Buster Posey back, is still anemic, which makes it difficult to win games. He only won 13 last year.

Second, his crazy delivery has to cause arm trouble at some point, right?

I think that concern is why Lincecum is being taken a round or two after Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw, but it is valid and something to consider if you’re going to take a starting pitcher in the first two or three rounds of your draft.

Projection: Late-second to third-round pick

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez

Felix Hernandez is one of the only players on Seattle who is worth drafting this year, and he will be taken very early in your draft.

If King Felix was on a contending team, he might be universally regarded as the best starting pitcher available. He strikes out a ton of hitters and is capable of putting up a sub-2.50 ERA.

The problem, of course, is his wins.

When he won the Cy Young in 2010, he had 13 wins, and his prospect for wins is no higher in 2012 as the American League (especially the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) gets better and better offensively.

Still, he’s one of the best starters available and will be the ace of his fantasy staff.

Projection: Second to third-round pick

St. Louis Cardinals: Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday is now “the man” in St. Louis without Albert Pujols.

Holliday hit behind Pujols last year, so removing Albert from the Cardinals’ lineup could either help or hurt Holliday’s fantasy value.

On one hand, Pujols was often on base for Holliday, which presented more RBI chances.

On the other hand, Pujols was able to drive in runs that may still be on base for Holliday to drive in himself.

Either way, Holliday is a solid major league hitter and is a top-15 outfielder.

Projection: Fourth to fifth-around pick

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria

I wouldn’t be surprised if Evan Longoria won the AL MVP this year, which wouldn’t be too shabby for a player likely to be taken in the second round of most fantasy drafts this year.

He had a rough year overall in 2011, hitting just .244, but used a strong September to wind up with 31 home runs and an .850 OPS. Not bad for an off year.

Longoria is just too talented not to bounce back and get even better, which would provide great value to whoever takes him.

Projection: Second-round pick

Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler

Josh Hamilton would normally be the first Ranger taken, but with injury concerns and his off-the-field problems over the winter, his stock has fallen.

Kinsler is often overshadowed by some of the offensive juggernauts on the Rangers, but he’s one of the best second basemen in the game and is coming off a 32 home run year.

With only four elite second basemen available in fantasy this year, Kinsler could be one of the best picks of the draft.

Projection: Late-second to third-round pick

Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista continued to prove his skeptics wrong after his second MVP-caliber season in a row in 2011, and he will be one of the top draft picks in this year’s fantasy leagues.

Bautista is a monster; barring injury, he will likely put up over 40 home runs and a 1.000+ OPS (on-base plus slugging) this year. Plus, he still has eligibility at third base in most leagues even though he plays outfield, so owners can draft him with the flexibility of using him at either position.

I would pick him immediately after Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, but some who remain skeptics might let him slip later in the first round.

Projection: No. 3 pick to mid-first round

Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman

Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third basemen in baseball when healthy.

He has a career .288 batting average with a .355 on-base percentage and is good for about 25 home runs per year.

He just signed a long-term extension with the Nats, but he’s not a guy I worry about being motivated.

He’s a guy I would take after Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre, but definitely before David Wright with his injury problems and Pablo Sandoval.

Projection: Fourth-round pick