Separating UFC Contenders from Pretenders in 2012

With the UFC title pictures heating up already in the early going of 2012, a number of contenders have emerged, eager to get their shot at the title. This seems like a great time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

This piece must have slipped through my subconscious, as I just recently published an article on the biggest pretenders in each UFC division.

Let's take a look at each division, and separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Bantamweight

Contenders: Urijah Faber, Renan Barao

Pretenders: Brian Bowles, Scott Jorgensen, Miguel Torres

Bantamweight is probably the most shallow division the UFC has, thus explaining why there are not that many contenders or pretenders listed.

Although Urijah Faber has dropped his last three title fights in a row, he is still probably the most dangerous contender to Dominick Cruz's belt. Faber is very familiar with Cruz, having fought him twice. In their latest bout, Faber lost a close decision, but he has a chance to redeem himself this summer.

Barao has made some noise in the bantamweight division lately, taking out top-10 opponents Scott Jorgensen and Brad Pickett with ease. He has the all-around game to challenge Cruz and be a top guy for a long time to come.

For Bowles, Jorgensen and Torres, I simply see them as pretenders to the title at this point. Bowles and Torres are ex-champions, but I do not see them contending with Cruz, Faber and Barao. Bowles is good at everything, not especially great at anything. Torres is getting old now, but has faltered to more complete fighters.

Jorgensen is a guy who falters in big fights, which may be attributed to the lack of depth at bantamweight. He lost his only title fight, while losing his latest bout that was probably a No. 1 contender's bout.

Featherweight

Contenders: Dustin Poirier, Erik Koch

Pretenders: Hatsu Hioki, Chad Mendes, Chan Sung Jung

The featherweight division is another division that is shallow on the top end of the division, but has many good-not-great fighters.

The two contenders that I can see making a run for the title are Erik Koch and Dustin Poirier. I say these two because they are very similar. Both have good, underrated ground games to compliment their great striking skills.

Poirier and Koch are as tough as two dollar steaks, which may be the winning combination when fighting Jose Aldo.

Hioki, Mendes and Jung are all pretenders in my mind. Hioki is a grappling-heavy MMA fighter without the stand up skills to hang with Jose Aldo for even one round. He struggled against George Roop as well, which is a red flag to me.

Mendes is another guy that has to fight a ground-style match or he is in trouble. As Jose Aldo exposed, if Mendes cannot get the fight to the ground, he drastically reduces his chances of winning. Top-level fighters will have Mendes scouted and will expose his holes as well.

Jung suffers from the "Showtime Kick" effect, in that he pulled off a twister and all of a sudden he is the best fighter in his weight class. Yes, he did beat Mark Hominick quickly, but that was an uncharacteristic version of Hominick, who fought carelessly.

Lightweight

Contenders: Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz

Pretenders: Jim Miller, Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis

The lightweight is a shark tank at this point, so I chose six lightweights to focus on right now.

Edgar, Maynard and Diaz are all contenders at this point.

Ben Henderson's first fight with Frankie Edgar was very close. Either way, Edgar has proven that he is a contender since he defended his belt three times and is one of the most well-rounded fighters in mixed martial arts.

Maynard has raw power, great wrestling and the ability to hang in their with the best. Though unsuccessful in his first two title shots, Maynard shows that if he goes back and improves in the gym, he is a legitimate contender.

Diaz is a nightmare on the feet, as he has shown to be Nick Diaz 2.0. He will always be susceptible to wrestlers, but his jiu-jitsu game is top notch, which will often times bail him out.

Miller and Guida are pretenders, as they usually only lose to the top guys in the division. They are both great ground fighters with decent stand up, but usually lose to the guys with better stand up or better grappling. 

Pettis, on the other hand, can beat upper-middle tier fighters, but struggles on the upper part of the division. Although he has beat Ben Henderson, Clay Guida exposed Pettis' takedown defense.

If Pettis continues to put in time with his wrestling, he will eventually become a contender.

Welterweight

Contenders: Carlos Condit, Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald

Pretenders: Josh Koscheck, Johny Hendricks, Jon Fitch, Jake Shields, Martin Kampmann, Diego Sanchez

Although Carlos Condit is the interim champion, I still consider Georges St. Pierre the champion, so he is on the contender's list. Condit has beaten top talent in the welterweight division and has proven to be an all-around oriented fighter. He is one of the men that has a chance to give GSP a run for his money.

Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald may hold the complete blue print of beating St. Pierre. Both have great wrestling and grappling ability. Both have good takedown defense. And, very importantly, they have the striking acumen to round off their game. Both of these guys are definitely contenders in the welterweight division.

For most of the pretenders, their fault lies in the fact that they are wrestlers that won't be able to handle GSP's ferocious takedowns and smothering top game. Hendricks, Fitch and Shields are not great strikers, which will allow GSP to pick them apart on the feet like he did Koscheck (jab, jab). They are all great wrestlers, but not great off their backs, which will allow St. Pierre to dominate them.

Sanchez is also like them, as he is a top-position jiu-jitsu player. He is not very good off his back, as guys like John Hathaway have exposed. Also, Sanchez will never be more than a upper-mid tier welterweight.

Kampmann is very well rounded, but not exactly great at one thing. He will have more technical striking than most, but will be beat by power wrestlers.

Middleweight

Contenders: Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, Chris Weidman

Pretenders: Mark Munoz, Michael Bisping, Tim Boetsch

Chael Sonnen has shown us the blueprint of beating Anderson Silva, and will get another shot come this summer. Sonnen has underrated striking skills and some of the best wrestling in mixed martial arts. When he is motivated for a fight, there is really no stopping him.

Vitor Belfort lost in his title shot against Silva, but it was by the "front kick heard 'round the world." Belfort is a dangerous all-around fighter, possessing fast, heavy hands and world-class grappling. Belfort is a very tough out for anyone.

I am a believer in Chris Weidman. Although young in his career, he has taken all comers impressively. He has great grappling under the tutelage of Matt Serra, and he also has great boxing, which has been less talked about.

For Munoz and Boetsch, they are pretenders because I feel that they do not have the complete skill set to be No. 1 in the division. Munoz is a great wrestler with developing striking, but I do not see him taking out the top fighters. The same goes for Boetsch.

For Bisping, in my opinion he is a pretender because he has yet to beat a top-10 opponent. A technical striker, yes, but he has no knockout power. An underrated ground game, yes, but he will lose to strong wrestlers.

Light Heavyweight

Contenders: Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida

Pretenders: Mauricio Rua, Phil Davis, Ryan Bader, Alexander Gustafsson

The light-heavyweight division is another shark tank that has tons of potential contenders.

Evans is a former training partner of Jon Jones, which is advantageous because he knows "Bones'" moves. Evans has also looked stellar since joining the Blackzilians, looking amazing in fights against Tito Ortiz and Phil Davis.

Henderson has great wrestling skills and sickening power in his hands. If there is a man that can test Jones' chin, or anybody for that matter, it is Henderson. He is an old fighter, but still a contender due to the fact that he can hang with anybody and knock anybody out.

Machida, although not as successful recently, is still a contender in my eyes. He has the unorthodox striking to defeat anybody. Machida is a tough out for ANYBODY.

For Bader and Davis, they're in the same boat. Both men are great power wrestlers, but very underdeveloped. Both men do not stand a chance with top light heavyweights, especially well rounded ones.

Rua's career and injuries have taken their toll, which is why Rua has not looked the same. At this point, I don't see him ever holding the title again.

Gustafsson has a great chance at becoming a contender, but at this point, especially the way he is being built up by fans, he is a pretender. Of all the guys who have a chance to be a contender at some point in their career, Gustafsson definitely has the best chance.

Heavyweight

Contenders: Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum

Pretenders: Frank Mir, Shane Carwin, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett

The heavyweights have become very exciting as of late, adding depth to what used to be a shallow division.

Overeem will get his shot at Junior dos Santos soon enough. Overeem is probably the best striker in the heavyweight division and holds an underrated ground game. He has submitted many a man in his day, a testament to his complete game.

Velasquez and Werdum are similar contenders. Both have great ground games, even though Velasquez is a wrestler and Werdum is a jiu-jitsu artist. They both also have developing striking, even though at this point Velasquez's is much better than Werdum's. Both men are a tough out in any fight.

The two men in the Strikeforce Grand Prix finale are pretenders in my eyes. I feel that Cormier is far too small for heavyweight and will be dominated by the top heavyweights who are much bigger and stronger. Barnett is a great submission wrestler, but will lose striking exchanges against top guys, especially if he cannot get the fight down.

For Mir, I think that he is on a great run recently, but has nothing to offer the top three or four guys in the division. He has nasty submissions, but has a hard time with power wrestlers. His striking defense is suspect on the feet, as he has been rocked numerous times (ex. Nogueira fight).

Carwin still has cardio issues, as well as health issues that may hurt the number of years he has left in the tank. Carwin is a powerful wrestler and puncher, but he is not a technical striker. I also suspect that he is not good off his back, which exposes him to wrestlers.