Miami Marlins: Full Projection for Starting Pitching Staff

The Marlins starting staff is arguably one of the biggest unknowns for the team this season. Not because its going to be below average or because it will hold them out of the playoffs, but because there is much we cannot predict going into the season. 

Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? Can Ricky Nolasco bounce back from a subpar season? What will Carlos Zambrano provide this season? Also, how will the new ballpark affect their numbers at home? 

Here are my projections for the 2012 season.

***These projections are based on a full season worth of games started. (i.e, not accounting for games missed due to injury.)***

Josh Johnson 

15-7, 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 195 K's

Johnson has always struggled to get into the win column with regularity, sometimes due to a lack of run support; other times its been due to his inability to go deep into games.

By no means am I knocking Johnson, who could challenge for a Cy Young every year if he stays healthy, but the 15 wins would be a big number for him, and a sign he's been able to go more than five or six strong innings before his pitch count gets too high.

Mark Buerhle 

13-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 125 K's

Projecting Buerhle isn't necessarily a tough task, as his remarkable consistency should travel well from Chicago to Miami. The strikeout numbers may be a little higher than his past few years, as a few at bats from opposing pitchers should assist that a little bit.

Overall, if Buerhle stays healthy, the Marlins know what they are getting. Chalk up 30-35 starts for him. 

Anibal Sanchez

14-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 190 K's 

Let it be known I am an Anibal Sanchez fan. He is underrated, and when healthy, has the second best stuff on the entire rotation. His numbers improved steadily as last season wore on, and his ability to go deep into games will be huge along with Buerhle.

The Marlins bullpen was often taxed last season, and the less they have to work, obviously the better they will be. 

Ricky Nolasco

12-12, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 155 K's

Nolasco can be frustrating at times, because on some nights he is literally as dominant as any pitcher I've seen. His over-the-top curve and change-up can be dazzling in games like his 16-strikeout performance against Atlanta.

His K-BB ratio is always outstanding, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. His ERA spiked last year considerably just based on some horrible performances where he didn't make it past a few innings.

Count on Nolasco for durability and for a little bit of a bounce back from last year, but not outstanding stats. 

Carlos Zambrano 

11-10, 4.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 130 K's 

The wild card. Basing his projections off of other years is like throwing darts blindfolded. Zambrano could be closer to the top of the rotation on most teams, and has had ace-like seasons, but the inconsistency and the off-field troubles have sunk him to the fifth position.

His spring training starts have me leaning toward projecting an improvement from last year, but it's always hard to gauge with Zambrano. He could be the difference between this staff being pretty good or very good.