Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: American League Central
We're taking a division-by-division look at eight underrated candidates, or sleepers, for fantasy glory in 2012—some rookies, some veterans...but all 28-and-under talents.
The AL Central takes center stage today.
(In fairness to the Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Indians, we capped the Royals' contribution to three prospects—even though six or seven might have qualified.)
2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
Skinny: It blows the mind that Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia once battled for the same 2B-SS slots in college (Arizona State), before Kinsler concluded his career at Missouri. On a smaller scale, it's surprising that Kipnis isn't getting the Arizona State-themed benefit of the doubt with fantasy owners heading into his first full season in the bigs.
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Kipnis only played in 36 MLB games last year; but if we were to extrapolate those figures over a 144-game season, he would have ended up with 28 HRs, 76 RBIs, 20 steals, 96 runs and a .272 BA—numbers somewhere between Kinsler and Pedroia's age-24 seasons with the Rangers and Red Sox, respectively.
Right now, Kipnis (.820 OPS in 22 spring at-bats) ranks as the No. 14 second baseman (ahead of Aaron Hill/Kelly Johnson, behind Jemile Weeks/Danny Espinosa), with an Average Draft Position of 163 (Round 14). But here's the best way to cut through the bull somewhere between Rounds 13-16. Don't let JK slide immediately after Pittsburgh's Neil Walker and Seattle's Dustin Ackley exit the board.
Best-Case Scenario: Kipnis logs 500-plus at-bats and nails the above 144-game projections. He's that good!
OF Lorenzo Cain, Royals
Skinny: Have you taken a gander at Cain's spring numbers through 10 games?
We're talking off-the-charts progress for a 25-year-old speedster who was one of the two main cogs in the Zack Greinke trade to Milwaukee: 10-22 hitting (.487), five runs, four doubles, two HRs and one steal, culminating in a 1.429 OPS.
Usually, it's foolish to derive greatness from a small sample size of stats from largely meaningless exhibition games, but there's a reason why the Royals had to have Cain (and Alcides Escobar) two years ago...and there's a reason why fantasy GMs should consider boosting Cain into the early 50s for outfield rankings. In the minors, Cain was a five-category dynamo but never rushed to the majors.
In two short MLB stints, Cain has performed well enough (.302 BA, .343 OBP) to convince fantasy owners that he'll be a four-category factor, sooner than later.
Best-Case Scenario: Cain is an ideal late-round flier pick (Rounds 19-21) in 12-teamers, although his draft status may have been considerably lower just one week ago.
3B Mike Moustakas, Royals
Skinny: I heartily endorse the strategy of waiting to fill the 3B slot with Moustakas in mixed leagues, with one caveat: No one can predict, with total confidence, where he'll land in 12-team leagues. I've participated in roughly 22 mock drafts over the last 32 days, and each time, I was surprised by where Moustakas fell in the pecking order of hot-corner prospects who simply cannot match his four-category potential in HRs, RBIs, runs and batting average.
Mock Draft Central currently has Moustakas (batting just .211 this spring with two RBIs) as the No. 13 third baseman, with an ADP of 214—but a range of 98-300 (or Rounds 9-22). That's a wide net for a high-end talent who could be a top-10 asset by season's end.
Best-Case Scenario: Grab an established third baseman (Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, etc.) in the first four rounds and then don't let Moustakas slide past Round 15 or 16 (depending on draft slot). It's a win-win proposition. He's worth the risk of not waiting until Round 18.
SP Danny Duffy, Royals
Skinny: Forget about Duffy's stats from his hot-and-cold rookie campaign (4-8 record, 5.64 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). Most prominent pitchers struggle when given a taste of the majors. Based on his minor-league track record (2.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 rate and nearly 4-to-1 K/BB ratio), Duffy has the stuff to be an anchor for baseball's next great team. It also helps that the Royals' rotation is currently full of veteran placeholders for premium prospects like Duffy, Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Jake Odorizzi, meaning Duffy could vault to the No. 1 or 2 slot—depending on how quickly Jonathan Sanchez adjusts to American League hitters.
Regarding ADP, Duffy has no value in 12- or 14-team leagues; but he's certainly a last-round consideration for owners who crave upside late in the draft, regardless of scoring rules.
Best-Case Scenario: Duffy logs 27 starts and eclipses attainable thresholds in strikeouts (160), ERA (4.07) and WHIP (1.18).
OF Denard Span, Twins
Skinny: I'm giving Span a relative free pass on his fall from fantasy grace in 2011, based on three factors: 1) Injuries are no longer a concern; 2) He's in the prime of his career; 3) Span's track record for three- and four-category success at every level portends to a bounce-back campaign.
In Grapefruit League action, Span has three steals, a batting average of .450 and .950 OPS; and from 2009-10, he tallied 182 runs and 49 steals.
Best-Case Scenario: In 12-team drafts, Span can be had anytime after Round 23, an absurdly low price for a once-formidable outfielder with the potential for 8 HRs, 63 RBIs, 84 runs, .289 BA and 20-plus steals.
SP Chris Sale, White Sox
Skinny: Neftali Feliz and Aroldis Chapman aren't the only fireball relievers making the transition to starter this season. After two years in the White Sox bullpen, the 22-year-old Sale (2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 Ks in 94.1 MLB innings) returns to his natural habitat as a potentially dynamic starter, on a club that needs a lock-down asset for years to come.
Of course, the question isn't can Sale succeed in his new role...but when, since most ex-relievers need time to build up arm strength for the rigors of starting.
Best-Case Scenario: In Sale's case, we'll apply the same philosophy for Stephen Strasburg (albeit on a diminished scale): From April-August, fantasy owners can expect solid numbers in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP; but come September, barring a pennant chase, Sale's contribution may be reduced in an effort to limit his innings and set the stage for a drama-free, injury-free offseason. For a Round 18-19 price, that seems like a fair trade-off with Sale.
OF Delmon Young, Tigers
Skinny: Young is far from a classic sleeper in the scope of professional sports—that's the downside of being a former No. 1 pick in the draft (2003), and purported-savior-that-never-was for two franchises (Rays, Twins).
But the Tigers need not care about the past; they should only judge Delmon on his springtime competitiveness in a crowded outfield and production after last year's trade to Detroit (1 HR every 5 regular-season games, plus 2 homers in the ALDS). Fantasy owners should adopt the club's stance on Young, as well, given his prodigious Grapefruit run of 10 hits (.455 BA), nine RBIs, four runs, two HRs and 1.277 OPS.
Those numbers just scream Round 15-18 pick, and yet Young currently has an ADP value of 237—or Round 20. He's also the 65th-ranked outfielder, which tells you that upside-loving fantasy owners keep forgetting he's just 26.
Best-Case Scenario: With 500 at-bats, Young could be a four-category factor the entire season...although his days of double-digit steals are most likely done.
3B Brent Morel, White Sox
Skinny: I'll try not to be hypocritical in this paragraph, singing Morel's praises on one end...and then trying to justify his exclusion from the Top 25 Third Basemen list. The kid has tangible talent, a good track record of success at various levels and a clear shot at winning the hot-corner position out of Spring Training; and yet, it's hard to project where he'll stand at season's end.
In Cactus play, Morel leads the club in batting (.400), but with sparse contributions in the other four categories.
Best-Case Scenario: Morel could actually bring respectability in all five categories. Nothing fancy, but something like 10 HRs, 57 RBIs, 54 runs, 8 steals, .274 average.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.



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