Jonas Valanciunas and 5 Things the Raptors Need to Be Successful Next Season

We are getting into the latter portions of the 2011-12 NBA season, and the outlook is pretty bleak for the Toronto Raptors. 

Through the first 40 contests of the shortened 68-game season, the Raps have amassed an abysmal 13-27 record. 

And though playoffs look to be a pipe dream for the immediate future, there is hope on the horizon.

With a corps of developing talent, cap space, trade assets and international prospect extraordinaire Jonas Valanciunas set to make his NBA debut next fall, playoff basketball may return to Canada's largest city sooner rather than later.

Though there is reason for Raps fans to be cautiously optimistic about the 2012-13 campaign, the team will need a lot to go right. Injuries, trades and underachievement can hijack any team's vessel to success, and despite the vast potential for improvement, the Raptors are not excepted.

The following variables will play key roles in determining the success of the Toronto Raptors during the 2012-13 season.

The Health of Andrea Bargnani

Bargnani missed 16 games two seasons ago, and has been riding the pine for all but 14 this time around.

The Italian has been the team's offensive focal point since the departure of Chris Bosh, and has shown a new defensive intensity in his time on the hardwood this year.  

As a former No. 1 overall selection, Bargnani has navigated a fine line between disappointment and star in Toronto, but looks to be destined for the latter under new head coach Dewayne Casey.

Regardless of the strides Bargnani makes going froward, his talent and effort will only matter if they can be channeled into performance. And he can only perform if he remains healthy.

Whether or not he can stay in uniform next season will be a key factor in determining the Raps overall record.

The 2012 NBA Entry Draft Selection

All indications at this point in the season are that Toronto will end up with a top-10 selection in this spring's entry draft. 

This pick will likely come anywhere from No. 4 to No. 9, but could be bumped up or down with lottery help or a win streak.

The 2012 draft is not the 2003 draft, but it is solid. Lacking star power outside of projected No. 1 pick Anthony Davis, the event will consist of a handful of legitimate lottery-value players at a variety of spots. The only positional dearth exists at point guard.

Regardless of which pick the Raps end up with, general manager Bryan Colangelo best make it a good one.

With incoming 2011 pick Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto could see a large influx in talent next year. Whether it's Davis, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Austin Rivers or any other lottery player, the performance of the Raptors' 2012 draft selection will go a long way in shaping the franchise for years to come, and will start immediately next fall.

The Development of Demar Derozan

Demar Derozan has been on a hot streak of late, though this in itself is nothing new.

The third-year USC product has been plagued with inconsistency during his time in Toronto, showing the ability to score but struggling to do so efficiently.

With the return of Bargnani, some of the pressure to lead the offense should be taken off of Derozan. That said, he still needs to find his rhythm and contribute if Raps expect to turn things around by next fall. 

Bargnani rejoined the team yesterday, which means DD will have some time to re-acclimatize to his old role as the second option before next season gets underway.

Solid Point Guard Play

Good point guard play is a hallmark of most successful NBA teams. With Jose Calderon, Toronto is ahead of the eight-ball, but whether he will remain a Raptor into the fall is yet to be seen.

With the trade deadline a mere four days away, speculation over Calderon being shipped out of town has run rampant for several weeks.

I will spare you comment on the already oversaturated pros and cons debate about moving the Spaniard, but will simply state this: If the Raptors hope to make the postseason in 2013, they will need a solid point man to captain the ship.

Calderon is capable, but he is not the only option. With the trade deadline, offseason, entry draft and free agency between now and the start of next season, candidates are plenty.

Regardless of who it is and how they come to be in Toronto, the Raptors will need a good starting point guard to make a postseason run next year.

The Emergence of Amir Johnson, James Johnson or Ed Davis

All of these fellows have played well at points of the 2011-12 season, but all have failed to put in consistent performances.

While the three collectively span from small forward to center, each player frequently sees time at power forward. With Andrea Bargnani, Jonas Valanciunas and Aaron Gray set to drain minutes from the 4 and 5 spots next season, there will not be additional floor time for all three of Davis and the Johnsons.

James Johnson can play the 3, and Ed Davis can play the 5, but if either of those positions are blocked further by Toronto's 2012 draft selection, playing time could indeed be very sparse. 

Rather than having each of these guys put in solid minutes, the Raptors need one to emerge as a quality starter-level player.

All three have the upside, and just one needs to get there.

In addition to being a big plus in itself, one guy separating from the others would produce two trade candidates that could pull in an asset from elsewhere, making this scenario one of paramount importance to the squad.

The Play of Jonas Valanciunas

At the risk of oversimplifying things, Jonas Valanciunas has to be good for the Raptors next season. He has to play well. He cannot be a bust.

As many times as Raptors fans have been assured he will be a good NBA player, the possibility of disappointment will remain until Valanciunas himself breathes it away. Furthermore, the 2012-13 season will not only be Valanciunas' NBA debut, but will be his first real taste of North American style basketball. 

While its unfair to expect the world of the Lithuanian star just yet, his play next season has to be solid if the Raptors want to take the next step. 

Toronto's record for the 2012-13 season will correlate strongly with Valanciunas' performance.