2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Pre-Draft Analysis of NFL's Top Running Backs

2012 is already shaping up to be a crazy year of football.

The NFL's first regular-season game will be played on Wednesday, September 5th, instead of the usual Thursday night appearance due to a conflict with President Barack Obama's speech at the Democratic National Convention that evening.

It will mark the first time an NFL game will be played on a Wednesday since 1948, when the Los Angeles Rams beat the visiting Detroit Lions, 44-7.

Anything can and usually does happen between now and the first game of the season. But it never hurts to get a leg up on your fantasy competition when it comes to the rankings.

With that, here are my top 15 running backs for 2012

15. Shonn Greene (New York Jets)

Big time feast or famine pick here.

Shonn Greene has been one of the more polarizing running backs among fantasy owners the past couple of seasons. Some refuse to let go of the potential he showed as a rookie (especially during the playoffs) in 2009. Others will point to his substandard numbers in 2010-11.

The reality is that Greene’s entire season could depend on the direction Rex Ryan and the New York brass takes over the next four to five months.

If the Jets re-commit to the running game they exhibited in 2009, Greene could wind up with 320-plus carries and in position to put up some huge numbers.

If they bring in a high profile receiver and turn to Mark Sanchez’s arm one more time, Greene (and the entire team) could be a colossal bust.

14. Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams)

Despite receiving more than 275 touches for the seventh year in a row, Steven Jackson could (again) do no better than just so-so in the stat column.

You can’t really fault him too much, though. It’s tough for a player to reach his fantasy potential while playing for a team that’s put up the worst record in the league (37-91) since he joined them in 2004.

Then again, maybe Jackson is part of the problem.

Whatever the case, having S-Jax on your fantasy team is a lot like playing blackjack. Sometimes you’re up a little, sometimes you’re down a little. But without question, you’ll have a much better chance at the big bucks playing roulette with the next guy on the list.

13. DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys)

The Cowboys drafted the 227-pound Murray out of Oklahoma to take Marion Barber's place and hopefully compete with Felix Jones to be the team’s starter.

In Week 6, Jones proved to be exactly what everyone already suspected. He's an injury-prone, third-down back with game-changing ability and no chance to ever become a bell cow. So Murray got the call.

All he did the following weekend was set a Dallas rushing record of 253 yards on 25 carries, including a 91-yard TD run on his first touch of the day. The fantasy world went ballistic, but the hysteria would be short-lived as Murray was lost for the year after breaking his right ankle in Week 14.

Jerry Jones has already gone on record saying that Murray will be t he Cowboys early-down back in 2012. The potential to end up higher on the fantasy totem pole is certainly there.

Thinking about what his large build and shocking 4.4-speed could do in this high-powered Cowboys offense, it wouldn’t shock me to see him further up the scale than this in my future rankings.

Click Here for the RBs Ranked 16-32

12. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

Frank the Tank finally made it through a full 16-game season again, his first since 2006.

The 49ers, however, made sure not to blow too hard on their house-of-cards-RB by tapering back his touches throughout the season. He had 20 or more touches in only half the team’s games.

Because of this, Gore’s fantasy numbers suffered as he accumulated just 30 more total yards while catching 29 less passes than he did in 2010 when he played in only 10 full games—five less than in 2011.

With capable backup RB Kendall Hunter in tow, I can’t see much changing for Gore in 2012, especially since the ‘Niners strategy seemed to work well in bringing them to the NFC Championship game.

Consider the seven-year pro a medium to high risk/medium to high reward fantasy option in drafts this upcoming season.

11. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)

I hate having to put AP down this far in the rankings, but until some definitive news about his health comes soon, I have to keep him out of the top 10.

If he really is on track to take on 15-20 touches in Week 1 of the regular season (as AP28 says and HC Leslie Frazier hopes), then I’ll change these rankings accordingly and move Purple Jesus back up around the top five where he belongs.

Until then, he’s too big a risk coming off ACL/MCL/meniscus surgery.

10. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)

Color me crazy, but I just don’t see that uber-potential as a fantasy back some of the other “experts” out there see.

Does that mean I believe he’s a candidate for dud of the year? Not quite, but it seems there are more roads leading toward the deadly abyss than to the ever-desired pot of fantasy gold.

The ferociousness with which Lynch runs made him the surprise of 2011. But can anybody really keep up that style of play? Even so, he still only averaged 4.2 yards per carry.

Now that he has his big contract, will grinding for that extra yard every play be as worth it?

The good thing here is that Seattle seems fully committed to riding “Beast Mode” for as long as he lasts. If he can garner over 20 touches per game like he did in 2011, it’s possible he could rub elbows with the top five again this season.

Click Here for the RBs Ranked 16-32

9. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Every defense the Jaguars went up against last season knew full well MJD was getting the ball but they still could not stop him.

What the wrecking ball did in turn was lead the league in both carries (343) and rushing yards (1,606) despite coming off offseason knee surgery and being game-planned against on a weekly basis.

He was 20 yards short of his first 2,000 total yards season, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. He easily surpassed his career high in touches with 386.

As amazing as all of these stats were, it’s also easy to see how they could take their toll on Jones-Drew in 2012.

The 5’7”, 208-pound RB has had 300-plus rushing attempts in each of the last three seasons (the only player in the NFL to do so) adding up to the most of any back in the league by a decent margin.

My guess is that the soon-to-be 27-year-old will have another fine year in 2012. But it wouldn’t shock me if he got injured or if his numbers dipped due to exhaustion.

Either way, he’s still a top 10 back.

8. Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)

What an awful, dismal, sickening, suicidal-thought-inducing nosedive into fantasy hell Chris Johnson took last year.

The fact that he kept blaming his catastrophic failures on everyone else—most notably his offensive line—was tougher to stomach than anything.

To be a successful fantasy player, you need to get over it and move on. Forget about the crap storm this guy rained down last season and realize he still has more talent than almost any other RB in the league.

Things will be different in Tennessee in 2012.

First, the athletic Jake Locker will likely be their starting QB. We all remember what CJ did with Vince Young at the helm.

Second, Kenny Britt will be back to draw the defense away from the line of scrimmage. Third, the offensive line should be pretty well gelled at this point and ready to open some holes.

If you don’t let the past dictate the future on this one, you can probably get Johnson for a steal.

7. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)

Regardless of how healthy he is or how ready he is to take on a full-time role, Jamaal Charles is all the Kansas City Chiefs have at the running back position. Period.

When healthy, he’s one of the most electric backs in the NFL and a threat to take it to the house on any given play. Fantasy owners would do themselves a huge favor by watching old clips of his mind-boggling runs from his 2010 season.

In case you forgot, Charles out-gained Adrian Peterson by almost 200 yards on 53 less carries that year while putting up 103 more yards than Chris Johnson on a whopping 86 less carries.

If he slips this far down, he could end up the steal of your draft.

Click Here for the RBs Ranked 16-32

6. Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)

It’s easy to see just how much potential Ryan Mathews has as a fantasy player. Now it seems he’ll have every opportunity to take advantage of it.

Mike Tolbert could be taking up a roster spot on someone else’s squad this upcoming season, so Mathews should have full reign of the Chargers backfield for the whole of 2012.

If he can stay healthy (which is a decent-sized “if”), there’s no reason to think that the third-year back out of Fresno State won’t get 300-plus touches and close to 2,000 total yards.

Heck, in just 14 games last season, Mathews put up 1,546 total yards on 272 combined rushes and receptions. It’s really not too far-fetched at all to see the rise in both categories with Tolbert gone.

An increase in touchdown opportunities and you could be looking at the breakout candidate of the year.

5. Darren McFadden (Oakland Raiders)

The only dig on Run DMC is that he’s injury prone. However, a lot of people ended up letting Matthew Stafford fall out of fantasy starter status last year for the same reason.

Let this comparison be a lesson to you. Don’t let past injuries guide what you do for your fantasy team in the future.

Darren McFadden is easily one of the most talented running backs in the league and one of the few able to get his team six points from anywhere on the field.

He hasn’t been a big touchdown guy up until recently, but a lot of that has to do with the Raiders' use of Michael Bush along the goal line.

Bush, however, will likely be absent from the Raiders 2012 roster. It’s possible McFadden could see that part of his stat line rise this upcoming season.

The injury factor will undoubtedly scare a bunch of owners away from him in their drafts this year. But it would be more frightening to face a healthy Run DMC in the fantasy playoffs knowing you could have had him on your team, yet were too much of a rabbity cream puff to pull the trigger.

4. Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)

Even though Forte missed the final four and three-quarter games of the 2011 season, he still had more total yards, the same amount of total touchdowns and (most importantly) more fantasy points than Chris Johnson did in a full 16-game season.

CJ28 had an off year, but the comparison still shows just how dominant Forte was up until his sprained MCL. Oh, and no worries about the knee, as Forte was able to play in the Pro Bowl game less than two months later.

As for the 2012 season, you have to love the potential Forte has in this offense. With former offensive line coach and run-oriented Mike Tice taking over as the offensive coordinator for the departed Mike Martz, Forte is sure to see 300-plus touches and more TD opportunities.

Also, if the Bears go out and grab a high profile receiver like they say they will, defenses will no longer be able to key in on him week after week.

The closest comparison I can come up with for Forte right now is Arian Foster, as both their overall game and frame/build are pretty much identical.

If the Bears offensive line continues to improve, watch out for this kid.

Click Here for the RBs Ranked 16-32

3. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)

LeSean McCoy wasn’t the first player in NFL history to put up a combined 20 touchdowns in a single season. The milestone had been attained on 17 different occasions before he did so in 2011 (most recently by DeAngelo Williams in 2008).

However, at just 23, the Real McCoy was the youngest to ever accomplish the feat by almost a full two years.

It’s strange to see how a single player can have such an incredible season while his team can still underachieve so drastically. Quandary aside, 2012 will be a bit different for the Eagles, though McCoy’s role will generally stay the same.

I can’t see another 20 touchdowns in his future, but 15 is certainly attainable, as is 2,000 total yards.

His 48 catches last season should have yielded far more than the measly 315 yards it did (6.6 YPC). While his 1,624 total yards was indeed respectable, it was actually less than he had the year before (1,672 yards) on 36 less touches.

Look for McCoy to be a candidate for the top slot again this season and make sure you draft him accordingly.

2. Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)

With the offseason addition of fullback Vonta Leach and the Ravens early committal to Rice as their 2011 goal line back, it was no surprise to see Rice pile up the numbers last season.

Well, maybe a little surprised.

The 2,000-plus total yards he compiled was a repeat effort from his 2009 sophomore season, so that wasn’t too much of a shock—but 15 touchdowns? Seriously? I mean, the kid had just 14 total TDs over his entire three-year career before blowing up last year.

We’ll see soon enough if Baltimore plans to change anything heading into 2012. With a year as the bell cow under his belt and Ricky Williams gone, all signs point to Rice being able to duplicate, if not improve his stats this upcoming season.

1. Arian Foster (Houston Texans)

Looks like the undrafted kid out of Tennessee is for real, folks.

He might have scared the bejesus out of his fantasy owners starting off the season with that hamstring injury. In the end, he was probably the scariest player for opposing owners to face.

As he did in 2010, Foster once again led the league in fantasy points per game, beating out LeSean McCoy by nearly a point per game.

You’d be hard pressed to find a running back with more potential to nail down the 2012 crown. Even though the NFL has suddenly become a more QB/WR-friendly league, you won’t want to let a fantasy talent like Foster pass you by in the first round of your draft.

Consider Foster before all others with the No. 1 overall pick.

Click Here for the RBs Ranked 16-32

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