10 Bold Predictions for the NBA Season Following All-Star Weekend

All-Star Weekend has come and gone.

As the atmosphere in the NBA landscape changes from celebratory back to serious,  look for all 30 teams to redirect their focus on making improvements for the stretch run. 

Whether these improvements include personnel firings, roster changes or a redistribution of playing time, I assure you that things will be different.

Here are 10 things that I see happening during the second half of the NBA season.

Serge Ibaka Wins Defensive Player of the Year Award

Let’s get the awards out of the way first.

In only his third season, Serge Ibaka has established himself as the premier shot blocker in the league. 

He leads the NBA in this category, and it’s not even close.  With 109 rejections on the season, Ibaka leads second-place JaVale McGee by 21.  McGee averages a very respectable 2.67 blocks per game, but he would need nearly eight games to make up the difference.

Although Ibaka averages 3.21 blocks per contest, many will argue that playing good defense isn’t all about blocking shots.  While this assertion is correct, Ibaka has proven to be the most efficient shot blocker in more ways than one.

Except for Samuel Dalembert of the Houston Rockets, Ibaka plays the least amount of minutes (27.6) when compared to the top 10 leaders in this category.

His 5.58 blocks per 48 minutes is tops in the league and is the only player who has more blocks than personal fouls (109:91).

This proves that not only is he blocking shots at an efficient rate but often-times is keeping opponents off the free-throw line as well.

Mo Williams Will Win Sixth Man of the Year Award

The Clippers have been starting a lineup that features two point guards for the entire season. 

As of right now, they sit atop the Pacific Division and as the third seed in the Western Conference playoff picture.

Even after losing Chauncey Billups 20 games into the season, the Clippers have maintained their high level of play thanks to their depth at the point guard position.

Head coach Vinny Del Negro has used Randy Foye to replace Billups in the starting lineup—leaving Mo Williams as the primary scoring threat off the bench. 

As the leader of the second unit, Williams has been instant offense by averaging 13.5 points and 3.3 assists, while shooting 38.7 percent from behind the arc.

I know James Harden of Oklahoma City currently has better statistics, but that’s due to his advantage in playing time.

To account for the loss of Billups, look for Williams’ role on offense and playing time to increase during the latter-half of the year.

LeBron James Won't Win the MVP Award

LeBron James is having a phenomenal year.

He has carried the Miami Heat to a league-best 27-7 record, even with fellow All-Star Dwyane Wade missing nine games.

His season averages of 27.4 points, 6.8 assists and 8.1 rebounds fall in line with his career averages; however, this is exactly why he won’t win the MVP again.

As long as he has the support of two All-Star teammates, James will be overlooked in the MVP race.

If Kobe Bryant continues to lead the league in scoring, and if Kevin Durant can continue to match LeBron in wins, and if Chris Paul can keep the Clippers atop the West, LeBron will become a victim of his previous success.

I understand that he has posted MVP-caliber numbers; however, just like he has in the fourth quarter of many games, James will once again come up short.

Jeremy Lin Won't Win the Most Improved Player Award

Now that All-Star Weekend has passed, have you recovered from Linsanity yet?

I certainly have.

In Jeremy Lin’s first eight starts, he was without All-Star Carmelo Anthony.

In those contests, he averaged 25 points and 9.5 assists.

Yes, he led the New York Knicks to a 7-1 record during that stretch.  And yes, if it weren’t for him, the Knicks might not even be in the playoff race right now; however, in his past three games with Melo in the lineup, Lin has averaged a pedestrian 15.3 points, seven assists and five turnovers.

I’ve already said my piece on why Lin makes New York a dangerous team, but that was before Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire returned to the team.

As a pick-and-roll type point guard, Lin needs to dominate the ball.  With Stoudemire and Anthony in the lineup, Lin will become more of a distributor than a scorer—and due to his alarming number of turnovers, you can see where he struggles.

Although Lin has garnished plenty of attention, the Knicks still have to improve their seventh seed playoff ranking for their point guard to gain more consideration for Most Improved Player.

Paul George of the Indiana Pacers is also in his second year and has quietly put together an impressive season by averaging 12.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists.  The difference between him and Lin is that George plays on a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma City Will Finish with the Best Record

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat currently both have records of 27-7, and each team leads their respective division.

If the first half of the season is indicative of the second, then both teams will continue to battle it out for home-court advantage during the NBA Finals.

Towards the end of last season, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra decided to rest his “Big 3” in order to keep them fresh for their playoff run.  Even without home-court advantage, the Heat made it to the NBA Finals.

OKC head coach Scott Brooks did no such thing with his star players—and will likely play them until the Thunder lock up home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs.

With one more home game than the Heat remaining on their schedule, look for the young Thunder team to finish ahead in this tight race.

Philadelphia Will Win the Atlantic Division

Even though the Philadelphia 76ers lost their last five before the All-Star break, they still lead the division by 3.5 games.

In recent years, a stretch like this would have all but eliminated them from the playoffs.

Not this year, though.

The Knicks and Boston Celtics both have losing records and have struggled to keep their starting lineups in tact for a significant portion of the season.

Philadelphia has had a similar problem with center Spencer Hawes, who when healthy, was a prime candidate for Most Improved Player. 

Thanks to a foot injury, Hawes has missed 20 games; however, the 76ers have found a viable replacement in Nikola Vucevic, who has averaged double-digits in scoring during the team’s current five game losing streak.

Once Hawes returns, Doug Collin’s team will have the deepest bench in the league.  There are currently 10 players on this roster who average at least 17 minutes of playing time.

Minnesota Will Make the Playoffs

The Minnesota Timberwolves are currently 17-17 and one game out of the Western Conference playoff race.

Throughout the season, they have shown amazing consistency by splitting all of their home games and all of their road games. 

All-Star Kevin Love has proved to be tremendous and extremely reliable by averaging 25 points and 14 rebounds—good enough to rank in the top four of both categories.

The team's main rotation is still considered to be incredibly young. 

Rookie point guard Ricky Rubio has finally experienced some rigors of the NBA game and will be looking to improve on his 37.5-field goal percentage.

With the Timberwolves actively looking to trade Derrick Williams, as well as Michael Beasley, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Minnesota net an impact player in return.

The combination of a minor roster shakeup and improved play from Rubio just might be enough to land the T’Wolves in the playoffs.

Dallas and Houston Will Finish Above San Antonio in the Southwest Division

As the All-Star break passes, the San Antonio Spurs stand three games in front of the Dallas Mavericks and four ahead of the Houston Rockets.

Look for this to change.

Coach Gregg Popovich is notorious for cheating NBA fans out of their money by resting his star players.

Manu Ginobili has been limited to only nine games this season due to injury, so the likelihood of this happening is bound to increase once the playoffs near.

There are currently four players who come off Popovich’s bench and see more than 20 minutes of action per game, meaning San Antonio will lose some games simply because they don’t have their best players on the court.

Dallas suffered from championship hangover and began the season losing its first three games.

Since then, Dirk Nowitzki has been benched for four games due to his lack of conditioning and once to prove his accountability.

After a terrible start, Lamar Odom has shown brief stints of comfort while playing in Dallas and seems to be gelling with his new teammates. His play should improve as he learns a new system and overcomes his personal issues.

With only two losing streaks all season long, coach Kevin McHale has the Rockets playing at a consistently high level and deserves to win Coach of the Year honors.

There are nine players who average seven points or more on offense—making their balance something to be desired.

The combination of Dallas’ improvement, Houston’s balance and San Antonio’s unpredictability has me to believe that there will be a major shakeup in the Southwest.

Dwight Howard Finishes the Season in Orlando

The trade rumors surrounding Orlando Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard have been dizzying and relentless.

One day, Howard will be linked to the Los Angeles Lakers, the next to the New Jersey Nets and even the Golden State Warriors.

I’ve already given my thoughts on why the Magic shouldn’t trade Howard—and with the March 15 trade deadline soon approaching, it looks like there’s still reason for Orlando fans to be optimistic.

The Magic are currently the fifth seed out east and would draw a matchup against the 76ers if the playoffs were to start today.

As I noted before, Philadelphia has had injury concerns at center—an advantage that the Magic could easily exploit.  Even without home-court advantage, I’d still give the nod to Orlando in a seven-game series.

The Magic have yet to find a trade they like all season long; what makes you think they will within the next couple of weeks?

The Los Angeles Lakers Will End the Season with a Winning Road Record

This season, the Los Angeles Lakers have been terrible away from Staples Center.

Out of their 18 games on the road, they have managed to win only six contests.  If they want to make a deep playoff run, that won’t get it done.

In order for the team to finish above .500 on the road, they must end the season at 11-4.

I know this seems like a long stretch, but here’s why I think it could happen.

After an embarrassing 102-90-road loss to the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers’ offense has seemed smoother.

As the Lakers spend more time getting acclimated to Mike Brown’s system, the floor spacing, timing and shooting should all improve. 

Los Angeles already ranks among the tops in all defensive categories—including first in rebounding  (45.7) and sixth in points allowed (91.4).  This proves that the effort and energy is there, it’s just a matter of scoring.

The remaining games on their road schedule are (in order): Detroit, Washington, Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, Golden State, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix, New Orleans, San Antonio, Golden State, San Antonio and Sacramento.

Out of those 15 games, the Lakers will only play against five teams with a winning record.  If they continue to improve, they should win at least nine of those games. 

That means the Lakers only need to win two of their games against the Grizzlies, Rockets, Mavericks, Clippers and two meetings against the Spurs.

After a March 11 meeting at home against Boston, I expect LA to lose against Memphis two days later.

On March 20, the Lakers begin a back-to-back Texas road trip against the Rockets and Mavericks.  Look for them to drop in one of those games.

The April 4 meeting against the Clippers is essentially a split home game—one the Lakers could easily win.

That leaves the two meetings against San Antonio.  If Greg Popovich decides to rest his starters in one of those contests like I  previously noted, I expect the Lakers to win that game and secure a winning road record.

Thanks for reading, and let me know your own bold predictions.