San Francisco Giants: Angel Pagan Is the X-Factor in 2012

Even though San Francisco Giants fans won't be able to see Andres Torres track down fly balls in AT&T Park like a madman anymore, they should be excited to see the new guy, Angel Pagan, because he has all the tools to single-handedly jump start the inept Giants offense.

After the Giants traded away the beloved Andres Torres—as well as relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez—to the New York Mets in exchange for Pagan, the trade resulted in mixed feelings among all those who root for the Giants.

Torres was a key piece of the Giants' run to the World Series in 2010, but he unfortunately fell back to earth in 2011 after an atrocious year at the plate.

But Pagan, the 30-year-old center fielder, brings a completely different style of baseball to the table.

While Torres was probably the best leadoff hitter the Giants had since Kenny Lofton in 2002, he still wasn't a prototypical leadoff hitter.

Pagan is.

Here's a list of five reasons why Pagan will be the spark plug atop the lineup that the Giants missed dearly in 2011.

Stolen Base Threat

Think about it. When was the last time that the Giants had a legitimate base stealing threat?

Andres Torres stole 26 bags in 2010, but he only had a 78 percent success rate that year, which isn't anything to write home about.

Marvin Bernard was also pretty good at swiping bases, but he was never one to give pitchers nightmares once he got on base.

As a matter of fact, the last time the Giants had a player steal over 30 bases in a season was in 1997, when Barry Bonds stole 38 bases. 

I think it's safe to say that it has been a while since the Giants had a reliable base stealer that wreaks havoc on the base paths. It's hard to believe that an offense that struggled so mighty to score runs didn't try to incorporate speed into the game plan.

But in steps Angel Pagan, who is fresh off back-to-back 30-plus stolen base seasons with 37 in 2010 and 32 in 2011. It's also important to note that Pagan could've had more in 2011 if he didn't miss 39 games due to injury.

His success rates during both seasons weren't astounding—80 percent in 2010 and 82 percent in 2011—but his impressive totals more than made up for his failed attempts.

In a lineup that struggles to produce runs, having a leadoff hitter who can consistently put himself in scoring position without giving up outs is a tremendous plus.

Conventional Leadoff Hitter

I probably liked Andres Torres as much as any Giants fan, however, truth be told, he wasn't a prototypical leadoff hitter.

He had an incredibly high strikeout percentage (22.5 percent in 2010 and 23.9 percent in 2011) and did not draw enough walks as a leadoff hitter.

Angel Pagan has everything you want in a leadoff hitter.

He puts the ball in play and rarely strikes out. His 11.7 strikeout percentage in 2011 was the third-lowest of all the center fielders in the majors (h/t FanGraphs). While that was a career high for Pagan, his strikeout percentage still hovered around 15 percent in 2009 and 2010.

He also had the 12th-highest contact rate in 2011 among qualified hitters (h/t FanGraphs).

And the best part about it is that Pagan knows what his role on the team will be.

As Pagan states,

"

“Now that I joined them, I’m looking to provide a spark at the top of the lineup, get on base a lot, put pressure on the bases, and get the job done in scoring runs. That will be the difference in being a successful team.”

"

As long as Pagan continues to put the ball in play, anything can happen with his speed, especially while batting in the ever-spacious AT&T Park.

Effective on the Base Paths

Double plays have killed the Giants the past couple of years.

They grounded into 158 in 2010, which was the second-most in MLB, and slightly improved in 2011 by only grounding into 117, which was the 13th-most in the league (h/t ESPN).

But now with Miguel Tejada, the rally-killer himself, gone, a slimmer Pablo Sandoval, and Angel Pagan batting atop the lineup, double plays won't be as prominent of a problem in 2012.

Pagan grounded into only four double plays in 2011, which was the fifth-fewest among eligible players (h/t FanGraphs).

Will Vastly Improve Offensive Output from the Center Field Position

Outside of maybe shortstop, center field was the weakest offensive position for the Giants' cupcake offense in 2011.

It was a center fielder by committee for the most part in 2011, as Andres Torres, Darren Ford, Aaron Rowand and Justin Christian collectively hit a triple slash of .228/.299/.347 (h/t Giants Nirvana).

All of those batters typically batted leadoff as well, so having a cumulative on-base percentage of under three is inexcusable.

Angel Pagan alone had a higher batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, more stolen bases and 130 fewer strikeouts. And while all of Rowand's 84 strikeouts didn't come when he was playing in center field, he did play 60 of his 108 total games at that position. 

It's hard to argue that Pagan isn't an upgrade over all of the center fielders that the Giants had on their roster last season.

2011 Wasn't as Bad as It Looks

First of all, it's important to note that Angel Pagan missed 39 games due to a strained left oblique in 2011. Strained obliques are nagging injuries, so it could be part of the reason why Pagan had such a down year last season. 

He only batted .262 in 2011, which isn't the most appealing stat when looking at leadoff hitters. However, he hit .306 in 2009, and followed that up by hitting .290 in 2010.

So why did Pagan had a down year last year?

For starters, he had a RPA+ of 93, which was the lowest mark (h/t Giants Nirvana) of any batter who qualified. In simpler terms, it means that Pagan faced the toughest pitching competition of any batter in 2011.

And since he played in the NL East,which is a division that is rich of elite starting pitching, it's easy to understand why Pagan had the lowest RPA+ in the league.

Also, Pagan's BABIP was abnormally low in 2011, which practically means that he was rather unlucky. His .285 BABIP was the fifth-lowest of the all the center fielders in MLB.

To compare, his BABIP in 2009 and 2010 was .349 and .331 respectively, so one could argue that his 50 point drop in 2011 could have been plain and simple bad luck.

If the law of averages balances out like it's supposed to, Pagan should see is BABIP rise in 2012, which can only be good news for him and the Giants.

He's Only a One-Year Experiment

But let's face it.

Angel Pagan is only the stopgap that is filling in at center field for one season as the Giants wait for Gary Brown to groom in the minor leagues.

Brown will be the starting center fielder for the Giants in 2013.

Even if Pagan fails to produce next season, Brown will be ready to step in at a moment's notice.