Golden State Warriors: Another Season in NBA Limbo?

With 30 games down and 36 remaining, the Golden State Warriors appear headed for yet another year finishing at the top....of the NBA's bottom rung.

At 13-17, the preseason playoff dreams of owner Joe Lacob and new head coach Mark Jackson look no more realistic than the regular-season pipe dreams of Lacob and general manager Larry Riley of bringing Dwight Howard to the Bay.

The Warriors are technically only three games out of the eighth playoff spot, but would need to leapfrog four teams to earn that early first-round exit.

What's worse is that while the club's record only betters three of their Western Conference peers, it actually ranks them higher than seven teams in the Eastern Conference. In other words, that much-discussed top-seven lottery protected pick will likely wind up in Utah.

Despite being ranked as one of the better draft classes in recent history, losing a mid-to-late lottery selection would not be the end of the world for this organization. After all, the team has had seven draft picks between sixth and 14th since 2004, and the best piece they have acquired is either oft-injured Stephen Curry or sweet-shooting (perhaps limited?) Klay Thompson. Two of those players (Ike Diogu and Patrick O'Bryant) are no longer in the NBA.

So if the Warriors lose their draft pick, the fanbase is left with the hope that Riley will find a way to use the team's roughly $13 million in expiring contracts over the summer to bring a top-flight free agent to Oakland. While Riley was able to add some productive veteran pieces to the team's second unit this offseason, this team is in dire need of additions to its starting five: i.e., free agents that have never shown interest in the Warriors being lured west by a general manager who's never shown the ability to attract them.

There has been a significant clamoring of the fans for the Warriors to tank this season and hold on to that draft pick. But there are a few holes in that train of thought.

For starters, this problem of having no draft pick will not just disappear. It's top-seven lottery protected this year and next, then top-six protected in 2014. If the pick still has not moved by 2014, it turns to second-round picks in 2014 and 2016. In other words, the only way they never lose this pick is to draft in the top-half of the lottery for the next three seasons. That's a lot of losing, even for the Warriors.

And second, this roster has shown that it's too talented to lose consistently. Some want the Warriors to gut the roster for young players and draft picks, but that assumes that teams would be willing to move young players and picks for the Warriors pieces.

Curry could have netted the Warriors Rajon Rondo or Chris Paul this past offseason. But that was about five ankle injuries ago. At this point, could he even bring back a Darren Collison or a Mike Conley? Would either of those names excite the fanbase in any meaningful way?

Moving Curry's more talented backcourt mate, Monta Ellis, is the more popular decision from fans and media alike. But with Tim Kawakami's recent article saying as recently as this past summer that the best offer on the table for the Warriors for Ellis was Michael Beasley and (then unknown) Nikola Pekovic, what could the Warriors get for Ellis? Mind you, the Beasley-Pekovic offer came after Ellis had just finished his best season of his career. This year, his scoring, shooting percentage and steals are all down and his turnovers are up. Those Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith and Luol Deng talks sure seem unfounded at this point.

So, what should the Warriors do? It's hard not to tell fans to be ready to wait at least another season for any significant progress being made. Ellis and Andris Biedrins each make $20 million for the next two seasons (assuming both exercise their player options in 2013/14) and David Lee is just two years in to his six-year, $80 million deal.

Unless Curry's ankle shows it can sustain an 82 game season (and somehow drastically improve his decision-making and defense) or Thompson or Ekpe Udoh take giant steps forward, the team will have to find a way to solve their woes through smart drafting, developing their talent and "cross your fingers" free agency.

The silver lining for Warrior fans is that the improvements to the organization (both on the court and in front office) leave plenty of reason for optimism about the club's future. Jerry West has shown the uncanny ability of building up NBA franchises with little or nothing to work with. And with West reportedly ready to take on a more meaningful role in the front office (and West having more to work with than he's had in past front office gigs), the Warriors appear headed in the right direction.

Changing the culture of an organization does not happen in a night, or in a season even. But patience is key if this club wants to do more than have a cup of coffee (or a gimmicky second-round trip) in the NBA playoffs.

It's a good thing that this club's fans have a tremendous history of patience and loyalty. Both will likely be tested before this is all cleaned up.