Boston Red Sox: Is Jacoby Ellsbury the Next Rickey Henderson in the Making?

Off the bat, I have to admit that there will never be another Rickey Henderson. The man was absolutely incredible and a monster on the base paths. Comparing Jacoby Ellsbury to him is going to be challenging, but there are some very interesting similarities between the two players that deserve some attention.

Now, Henderson is widely considered to be the greatest base stealer and leadoff man in Major League Baseball history. I'm hard pressed to argue against that. The fact that the man holds the record for most career stolen bases, 1,406, as well as the most career runs scored, 2,295, is incredible. He also holds the record for most career lead-off home runs, 81, and unintentional walks, 2,129.

On top of all that, Henderson holds the record for the most single-season stolen bases, 130, while eclipsing the 100-swiped-bags mark two other times and leading the league in stolen bases 12 times. Literally, I could go on and on with Henderson's accomplishments.

Comparing Ellsbury to Henderson immediately starts off with a bit of a flaw. While Henderson began playing in the Majors at the young age of 20, Ellsbury came up when he was 23. In Henderson's first five seasons, he played in 649 games; while Ellsbury has only played in 507 (losing all but 18 games to injury in 2010.)

If I were to compare Henderson's stats starting at age 23, he already would be in his fourth Major League season and accustomed to that level of play. So, in an effort to retain some sense of order, I will literally compare apples to apples—each players first five seasons in the majors.

On the outside looking in, Henderson appears to have been a better player. After all, he did rack up three All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and finished 10th in the MVP voting twice and 24th once. Ellsbury finished third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2008 and was named an All-Star, winning a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, while finishing as the runner-up for the 2011 AL MVP Award.

The first thing to pay attention to is runs scored. Both men are leadoff hitters and expected to not only get on base, but to also score. In his first five seasons, Henderson scored 473 runs, an average of 94.6 runs per season. Ellsbury scored 341 runs in his 507 games, which averages out to 68.2 runs per season. Now, obtusely, Henderson obviously gets the nod; however, Ellsbury only appeared in 0.7812018 percent as many games as Henderson. Applying that percentage to Henderson's stats bring him to 369 runs scored with an average of 73.8 per season. A lot closer than at first look, right?

The home run total is actually biased in favor of Ellsbury. Henderson did not see his power numbers increase until he reached the age of 25, when he belted 16 home runs. Over the first five seasons, Henderson would hit 35 total home runs, while Ellsbury has hit 52 (32 of which came in 2011.) If you were to look at Henderson's totals from age 23 to 27, he hit 87 home runs. Applying that same game differential percentage, that brings him to about 68 home runs.

The RBI total could actually be attributed to the age differential as well. Again, apples to apples, Ellsbury has the advantage at 235 total versus Henderson's 189. Once again, if we look at Henderson between the ages of 23 and 27, his total goes up to 303. And, once again, applying that same differential in games played: 237 RBI. Are you following my math?

Stolen bases, forget about it, is just Henderson's world, in that regard. For the sake of mentioning it, in his first five seasons, Henderson racked up 427 stolen bases, leading the league four times and hitting 100 or more all three times that his career would see. Ellsbury, while no slouch on the base paths, puts up a paltry 175 stolen bases. Even with the games played being considered equal, that would only bring Henderson down to 333 or so, still eclipsing Ellsbury by 158 stolen bases. Out of curiosity, I ran the age difference on these players as well, to see if perhaps Henderson would lose in step in that time frame: nope. From age 23 to 27, Henderson racked up 471 total stolen bases—not even worth utilizing the games played percentage here.

After all of that, it really just comes down to straight up batting lines. Ellsbury has posted a line of .301/.354/.452/.807; while Henderson's looked like .291/.396/.395/.791. This is actually one category that really doesn't require much of an adjustment either in age or games played. If the actual plate appearances were worlds apart, perhaps; but that's not really the case here.

At the end of the day, as I stated before, nobody will ever be another Rickey Henderson. However, the Red Sox have a truly special player in Jacoby Ellsbury. He has the capability of becoming one of the greatest leadoff hitters in Major League history, if he should continue on the path he's on.