Blue Jays 2012: What We Can Expect from Jose Bautista This Season in 5 Tools

Utility man turned Toronto sports deity, Jose Bautista, will enter his ninth big league season as a ball player, and third as an offensive juggernaut. 

Bautista enjoyed an unprecedented improvement in 2010 and defied expectations in 2011 by turning in a better all around campaign. 

There are fewer doubters out this year, and speculation regarding Bautista's upcoming season is generally more positive than ever before.

So what can we expect from Bautista for a second encore? 

There are many methods of rating players. Here, we will employ the "five tool" assessment to predict how the Toronto star will perform in 2012.

Contact

Bautista's claim to fame is his power, but last year he got it done by drawing walks and hitting for average. He batted at an impressive .302 clip, which was a 42-point improvement from 2011, and led the MLB in walks with 132. All told, Bautista posted an OBP of .447.

When you think about it, this number is quite staggering. Whenever Bautista stepped into the box in 2011, his chance to reach base was only slightly worse than predicting the outcome of a coin flip.

Few analysts seem to think Bautista will post an average north of .300 in 2012, basing their predictions on career tendencies and the way his average declined in 2011 as the season progressed. 

While this method of prediction is sound, we should keep in mind that using Bautista's past statistics to predict his future numbers is a losing proposition, so don't expect a big fall off. Unlike many of the league's top power hitters, Bautista does not strikeout all that much, which will mitigate any decline he experiences this year.

Expect "Joey Bats" to post an average in the neighborhood of .285 -.295 in 2012. His OBP should remain over .410 even if Adam Lind continues to struggle behind him. 

Bautista, though by no means an up and comer is still developing as a 31-year-old. He is becoming a better all around hitter every season, and though he may not top last year's average, he should at least come close in 2012.

Power

It is the tool that made Bautista an instant sensation in 2010, and it is the long ball that he is still known for. Bautista is aging—he will be 31 throughout the entire 2012 season—but should play another two years before his power starts to drop off.

There is no reason to envision the right fielder tallying a dissimilar total of jacks this season compared to the last two.

Pitchers may be increasingly wary, but no team can afford to walk a hitter two or three times a game. No matter how feared he becomes, Bautista will see some pitches over the plate.

That said, we won't see Bautista return to the 50 HR plateau unless the Jays can put an effective cleanup hitter behind him. Whether Adam Lind improves or is replaced, Bautista will only challenge the half century mark if he has better protection than last year.

I made a projection earlier this month that Bautista would hit 39 homeruns this season. That number seems logical, but may be at the floor end of reality. 

In 2012, I project that Bautista will slam between 38 and 43 roundtrippers.

Speed

Though he is not known as a burner, Bautista has stolen a respectable nine bases in each of the previous two seasons. Last year, however, he was thrown out five times.

Bautista's pedestrian success rate swiping bags last season may prompt Manager, John Farrell, to red light him more often in 2012. 

I project that Jose will steal between four and six bases this season.

It is noteworthy that Bautista's lack of base stealing prowess is not an indicator of a slow player, but rather one that lacks proper timing. Though he is no Jacoby Ellsbury in the field, Bautista is capable of patrolling the outfield and covering good ground. He would no longer make it in center, but in the corner Bautista's speed is adequate, and will remain so in 2012. 

Glove 

Brett Lawrie will anchor third base from the outset of the 2012 season, which means Bautista should see time exclusively at right field this summer. 

The Dominican Republic native looked comfortable in the corner last season, though there is room for improvement. Bautista made six errors in 116 games in right field, but in fairness, also made some spectacular plays. 

This is largely a product of how intensely Jose mans right field. He amasses both errors and impressive plays because he goes after the ball. The mix of ups and downs in the field is a result of an aggressive defensive philosophy more so than defensive inconsistency.

Though Bautista has always been an adequate defensive position player, I expect him to have his best year in the field this season. He was a rover, but will have a permanent home in 2012. Consequently, he will enter the campaign with more comfort and confidence than ever before.

Don't expect a Gold Glove from Bautista, but he could very well be a top-10 defensive outfielder in the AL this coming year. 

Arm

Though Bautista is capable with the glove, his primary weapon as a right fielder is his arm. 

The Blue Jay compiled 13 outfield assists in 2012 in only 116 games. A full season in the corner at Rogers Centre should see this number spike.

Bautista throws hard and accurate and should continue to terrorize baserunners this summer.

Expect 17-plus assists coming from Bautista in 2012.