NFL: Can Calvin Johnson Break Jerry Rice's Single-Season Receiving Record?

Calvin "Megatron" Johnson had one heck of a 2011-12 season.

In a season where he finished near the top of the list in almost every statistical category, Johnson can look back on last season as being a great success.

He would have loved for the Detroit Lions to go deep in to the playoffs and would have given anything to play another week of football, but Johnson's numbers were incredible.

With his rapport with Matthew Stafford appearing set for many years to come, the question that then must be asked is whether or not Megatron can continue do it all again next season.

If you watched him play at all last year, the answer must surely be "yes."

Calvin Johnson will be the best receiver in the National Football League in 2012-13.

He will lead the league in receiving yards and touchdowns.

And one must wonder then, is Jerry Rice's long-standing record of 1,848 receiving yards in a regular season safe from the magic hands of Megatron?

Could Johnson be the first man to chalk up over 2,000 receiving yards for the season?

Is it possible?

Well, before we get to carried away with the idea of the nickname "Megatron 2000"—which sounds like something that would be sold at a retail store for around $29.99—we must have a proper look at the numbers around Rice's spectacular season, Johnson's most recent  season and the likelihood that he can chalk up similar numbers next year.

Let's start with Rice, who is one of the greatest receivers of all time—if not the greatest.

His 1995 season with the San Francisco 49ers saw him take 122 catches for 1,848 yards at an average of 15.1 yards per catch.

His combination with quarterbacks Steve Young and Elvis Grbac saw him take in 28.3 percent of his teams total catches for 39 percent of their total receiving yards.

The 2011 season for Calvin Johnson yielded 1,681 yards from just 96 receptions at an average of 17.5 yards per catch—higher than Rice's YPC average.

Megatron took in 22.8 percent of catches for the Lions and accounted for 33.4 of their total receiving yards, leaving a 10.5-percent gap between catches and yards—almost identical to the catches/yards gap of Rice.

But looking at those numbers, it's easy to see why Rice's record is still a long way ahead of Johnson, despite his brilliant receiving abilities.

First, the Detroit Lions' schedule in 2011 was significantly easier than that of the San Fransisco 49ers in 1995 as they played against sides that allowed more passing yards. The Lions played against 13 teams in the bottom half of the league for passing yards allowed, whereas the '95 Niners only played against 10.

Second, despite having two quarterbacks as opposed to just the one, the San Francisco 49ers had a higher completion rate across the board, meaning that Rice was, in turn, going to have more receptions.

Young and Grbac combined for a completion rate of 67.6 percent as opposed to the 63.5 percent put up by Matthew Stafford.

Third, Rice made significantly more catches than Johnson. The distance between the two at the end of the season was only 167 yards, but it was also 26 receptions. And when you consider that these two guys are going at a rate of more than 15 yards per catch, those 26 receptions may account for up to 400 receiving yards.

Fourth, in comparison to their teams' total receptions, Rice was thrown to more frequently, taking in 28.3 percent of his teams total receptions as opposed to the 22.8 that Johnson received.

Thus, unless Johnson manages to find more receptions, he will not break Rice's receiving record—let alone crack the 2,000-yard mark.

Interestingly, at his average of 17.5 yards per catch, if Johnson had the 122 receptions that Rice had, he would have broken both of those marks with a total of 2,085 receiving yards.

However, Johnson will usually face double-coverage and safety help and will struggle to see the same number of receptions as Rice, even in a now quarterback-dominated league.

And he definitely won't be breaking that mark in 2012-13, as he will be hard pressed to chalk up another 1600-plus yard season, considering the schedule that the Lions will face.

Detroit will obviously face Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago all twice, and Johnson will most likely put up 100-yard plus games against three relatively exposed defensive units.

However, the Lions must also face teams from the NFC West and the AFC South this year, as well as the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles — making their schedule tougher than it was in 2011-12.

They face off against seven sides that finished in the top half of the league for passing yards allowed per game, and four sides in the top ten in the Houston Texans, St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles.

Once you throw in to that mix the Seattle Seahawks (11th) and the Tennessee Titans (14th), Johnson will have a tough enough time matching his 2011-12 feats, let alone trying to beat them and Jerry Rice's record in the process.

It's not the toughest schedule ever seen in the NFL, but it definitely isn't the easiest and it sure isn't easier than what the Detroit Lions faced this year.

Johnson will have another season where he leads the league in receiving yards and most likely will lead the league in touchdowns again, but it would take a brave man to predict him to break Rice's record in 2012.

Megatron is without a doubt the best receiver in the league and will continue to give defensive units nightmares in the seasons ahead.

He just won't break Rice's record.

Even though Megatron 2000 would be a sweet name for a toy.

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