MLB Free Agency: NL Titles to Come Despite Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder AL Leap

Pitchers and catchers have reported!

And it's about time we started talking about the pitchers because we've spent all winter discussing power hitters and their new deals. But it's the pitching—not the high-priced sluggers—that will ultimately decide who raises the Commissioner’s Trophy this fall, and for many falls to come.

Oh, I’ve heard the hype: Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are supposed to make the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Detroit Tigers, respectively, the favorites in a stacked American League.

Heck, some people think that the recent power shift to the AL will create such a disparity that the National League will be forced to institute the designated hitter.

After seeing Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Puols and Prince Fielder all switch to the Junior Circuit, it’s easy to see why so many people think the American League will be a dynasty for years to come.

But, in fact, the ridiculous spending on power bats the last few seasons may lead to more NL championships in the near future.

Why? Because pitching wins World Series, great arms are available and National League teams have the revenue and luxury tax room to sign these pitchers.

Pitching Wins World Series

It’s an old adage, but it's true.

To win the Series, you have to have a strong, deep rotation—the kind that shuts down elite, postseason offenses.

For the past two years, the Texas Rangers have had the better offense and lost the World Series. In fact, since 2005, the team with the better postseason ERA has won every World Series.

Year	World Series Winner	Postseason ERA	World Series Loser	Post-season ERA
2011	St. Louis Cardinals	4.05	Texas Rangers	4.35
2010	San Francisco Giants	2.47	Texas Rangers	3.70
2009	New York Yankees	2.26	Philadelphia Phillies	3.95
2008	Philadelphia Phillies	3.07	Tampa Bay Rays	3.81
2007	Boston Red Sox	3.29	Colorado Rockies	4.00
2006	St. Louis Cardinals	2.68	Detroit Tigers	2.95
2005	Chicago White Sox	2.55	Houston Astros	3.76

Remember when the Marlins' Brad Penny, Josh Beckett and Carl Pavano shut down the mighty Yankees in '03? Or when the weak-hitting New York Mets stymied the far superior Red Sox lineup in ‘86? 

In the playoffs, it’s pitching, and not a high-priced lineup, that wins games.

Great Arms Are Available

Upcoming free-agent pitching classes are both talented and deep.

As Bleacher Report’s Robert Knapel writes, the 2013 class includes James Shields, Jonathan Sanchez, Anibal Sanchez, Jake Peavy, Shaun Marcum, Colby Lewis, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Joel Pineiro and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

And, for teams that miss out on these guys, the 2014 class includes Phil Hughes, Edinson Volquez, Chris Carpenter, Matt Garza, Josh Johnson and Jair Jurrjens.

That’s six no-hitters, 13 World Series championships, 27 All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards and a World Series MVP award available in the next two years—with no draft picks or prospects required in return!

It makes sense for American League teams to invest in hefty corner infielders: as their bodies grow and their range shrinks, these players are easily transformed into DHs. 

But, for National League Teams, who don’t have this luxury, their money is best invested in pitching.

National League Teams Have Money and Luxury Tax Room

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Mets were all idle this offseason.

The Dodgers were being sold after owner Frank McCourt's divorce, the Cubs were rebuilding both their team and their front office, and the Mets’ assets still depend on a court's decision regarding owner Fred Wilpon’s involvement in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.

These teams play in the three biggest markets—and two of them are the most popular teams in town. By 2013, all three of these teams should be back doing what they do best: overpaying for marquee free agents!

As of February 7, the Dodgers' 2012 payroll is below $86 million. The Mets will be under $91 million and the Cubs will be just over $100 million.

So, when 16 top-of-the-rotation pitchers hit the market next offseason, the three most profitable teams in the NL can spend $70 million, per team, without exceeding the luxury tax.

Other NL teams will have extra spending money after the upcoming season, too.

Without Pujols and Fielder, the Cardinals and Brewers have more to spend on pitching. And, if Adam LaRoche walks next year, the Washington Nationals can afford a $10-million-per-year pitcher, also.

Big-market AL teams don’t have this flexibility. 

The Red Sox were over the luxury tax in 2011 after extending Adrian Gonzalez’s deal and signing Carl Crawford last winter. The Yankees are over the luxury tax and still overpaying for A-Rod, Jeter and A.J. Burnett.

And, now the Angels and Tigers have committed almost $500 million over the next 10 years to Pujols and Fielder, respectively.

None of these teams will be in a position to offer the long, rich contracts that elite pitchers require.

The National League had seven of the top ten pitching staffs in Major League Baseball last year. And, when big-market NL teams land the biggest free-agent pitchers, the NL will control almost all of the elite pitchers.

And, when the National League pitches better than the American League hits, the Senior Circuit will be lined up for long-term World Series success.