New York Mets: Breaking Down the Potential 2012 Starting Rotation

A lot of the New York Mets' 2012 season hopes and dreams rest on the left arm of the man in that picture. Johan Santana, coming off major surgery, will look to rebound with a quality season for the Mets. The problem is, nobody knows how effective he'll be able to be after the surgery. He lost a few miles per hour on his fastball, and his off-speed stuff is anyone's guess.

Personally, I think that Johan is way too much of a competitor to not be successful this season. Is he going to be the same as a few years ago and put up an ERA around 2.50? Probably not. Will he be able to have a sub 3.50? I think so.

Assuming Santana stays healthy and will obviously be the No. 1 starter, the rest of the rotation looks like this...

2) R.A. Dickey

3) Mike Pelfrey

4) Jon Niese

5) Dillon Gee

I believe that to be the most probable rotation that Collins will use; however, I would like to see Pelfrey and Niese switched. I have never been high on Mike Pelfrey (which you can read about in a few slides), and I think that Niese has great stuff and will have a big year. 

Either way, the Mets will need a good year out of their rotation to support the very quality lineup they appear to have.

Johan Santana

As I said in the opening slide, when I think about Johan Santana, some of the words that come to mind are determination, fighter and never gives up. This man embodies the direction that the Mets are trying to move in—great presence in the clubhouse, extremely motivated on the field. The guy just wants to win.

You want an example? Look at the second-to-last game of the 2008 season. The Mets were in the midst of missing the playoffs for the second straight year because of a last week collapse. What does Johan do? He throws a three-hit shutout on essentially one knee. The guy has the heart of a champion.

The only question now is how he'll recover from his major surgery.

Reports are that Santana is on a good pace, and while he might not be ready for opening day, he should be ready shortly after. Collins has been reported as saying that he wants 25 starts out of Santana this year, and I would be fine with that.

My statistical predictions for Johan will be based on that 25-start assumption by Collins. I don't expect Santana's strikeout rate to be the same as it has been, but I still expect him to put up a very good statistical season.

Projection: 25 GS, 12-5, 150 IP, 115 Ks, 3.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey is the great story that all of us Mets fans have come to love. After being a first-round draft pick way back in 1996 by the Texas Rangers, Dickey never really found himself until he started throwing a knuckleball in the mid 2000s. Dickey was finally given a starter's role by the Mets in 2010, and he hasn't looked back since.

Dickey was the Mets' best starting pitcher last year, although you wouldn't be able to recognize that by his record. R.A. went 8-13 last year, despite sporting a terrific 3.28 ERA. All the individual statistics were there for Dickey last year; the rest of the Mets just couldn't put the wins together. If Johan misses any time this year, Dickey will once again be the team's ace.

There is really no reason to think that Dickey will regress in any way this year. Sure, he's 37 years old, but he's a knuckleballer. He's got plenty left in the tank.

There are two great things about Dickey as a knuckleballer. First, he still throws hard enough (sitting around 83-85 mph) that he can manage to keep hitters slightly off balance, which works wonders when they basically know what you're throwing 95% of the time. I've witnessed a few strikeouts from Dickey where the hitter was just assuming knuckler and R.A. grooved a fastball and still managed to get him looking.

Secondly, Dickey has fantastic command for a knuckleball pitcher. Even in his prime, Tim Wakefield was walking 70-80 batters per year with a WHIP in the mid 1's. Dickey's highs in his two years as a Met are 54 walks (in 208 IP) and a 1.23 WHIP. Look for Dickey to continue along the same path this year, with his record resembling his stats a little better.

Projection: 32 GS, 15-7, 205 IP, 125 Ks, 3.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP 

Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey is a man that angers me to no end. He is 6'7", 250 lbs and throws in the low to mid 90s, yet he is completely afraid to pitch hitters inside.

Forget about the fact that he throws a hard sinker—you'd think that would only give him more reason to throw inside. Countless times, I have seen right-handed batters just leaning out over the plate, daring Pelfrey to throw anywhere but the outside corner. What does he throw? You guessed it—sinker over the outside corner that just gets drilled the other way. It's inexplicable.

You would think a pitcher with a sinker like Pelfrey's would love getting in under right-handed batters' hands and getting them to just mash the ball into the ground for easy outs, but it's like the guy is clueless.

Personally, I've been calling for Pelfrey to get traded for a while now, while the Mets can still get even a decent prospect for him.

However, now I think that ship has sailed. If the Mets traded Pelfrey now, I don't think they would get anybody usable in return, so they might as well hold on to him and hope he rights the ship. If Pelfrey doesn't figure out how to use his size and consistently pitch inside, it's going to be another long year for "Big Pelf."

Projection: 30 GS, 8-11, 191 IP, 107 Ks, 4.71 ERA, 1.44 WHIP 

Jon Niese

We now move from my least favorite Mets pitcher to one of my favorites. I've been high on Niese ever since I was lucky enough to be at the game where he threw a one-hitter against the Padres. There were stretches in that game when Niese looked flat-out un-hittable. It was pretty easy to tell, seeing as how he retired the last 21 batters he faced.

Niese pitched well for most of last year, but he faltered late in his season (which was cut short), causing his ERA to creep up to 4.40. You have to remember, though, that last year was only Niese's second full season in the MLB and he's still only 25 years of age.

Niese arguably has the best "stuff" out of the pitchers in the Mets rotation, and there's a good chance he will be a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. I am once again high on Niese this year and think he is primed for a breakout season.

Projection: 32 GS, 14-10, 190 IP, 176 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP 

Dillon Gee

Last, but certainly not least (Pelfrey takes that honor...had to get one more in there), is Dillon Gee.

Gee had a very interesting year last season, going 13-6 despite having a 4.43 ERA. It was a very up-and-down season for him. You can't really say it was inconsistent, because when Gee was good, he was consistently good, and when he was bad, he was consistently bad. Gee got off to a slow start in April, but then went 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA in May and 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in June.

However, that's when fatigue set in. Gee posted a 5.25 ERA after the All-Star break. If the Mets can get Gee in good enough shape to be consistent throughout an entire MLB season, there is definitely some potential.

Again, that was Gee's first full season in the major leagues and like Niese, he is also still only 25 years old. One thing that really stands out to me when I look at Gee's stats from last year is that lefties hit only .224 off the young righty. That is a very promising sign.

If he can build up his endurance and get his arm to be able to last an entire season, this year could be a bright one for young Gee.

Projection: 30 GS, 12-10, 178 IP, 151 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP