Words with Frenz: AFC East Mailbag, 2/15 Edition

Do the Miami Dolphins stand a chance if they can't land a franchise quarterback? Can the New England Patriots ever get it right in the secondary? Is this a make-or-break season for Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez?

These were just some of the questions posed in the mailbag this week. So let's dive right in.

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@ErikFrenz why don't the drafted db's ever work out?

— scottenright (@scottchop) February 11, 2012"

Great question. It's certainly not for a lack of trying, as the Patriots have used either a first- or second-round pick on a defensive back in each draft for the past five years ('07-'11).

Of those picks—six players total—only three remain with the team, and there are some questions about the future of Devin McCourty after a tough 2011 season.

Doug Kyed of NEPatriotsDraft.com had a great breakdown of the Patriots cornerback picks not just over the past five years, but throughout the Bill Belichick era. Kyed points out that the Patriots haven't drafted tall defensive backs very frequently and have limited themselves by drafting defensive backs who run faster than a 4.5-second 40-yard dash.

While these consistencies point to what the Patriots have been looking at—and while drafting short defensive backs is questionable, you can't really question them for wanting speed in the secondary—there are simply too many variables to boil it down to one or two things that have happened with each.

One consistency I notice in the chart above is that the defensive backs mainly come from small schools, where most don't have to cover future NFL receivers. By searching for players from major programs, not only would the Patriots get a better barometer on them based on the talent they're up against, but it would ultimately make the transition to the NFL that much smoother, because they already have that experience.

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@ErikFrenz How were Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen looking pre-injuries? Will training camp help them and will they contribute this year?

— Brendan Greeley (@Brendan89) February 12, 2012"

Another good question, and one that my good friend Greg Bedard of The Boston Globe discussed in his Sunday notes.

Ras-I Dowling looked good in man coverage this year before going down with an injury. One play that stands out to me is his defense of a Chad Henne-to-Brandon Marshall touchdown pass attempt on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line. It wasn't the best thrown pass, but he had clean defense against a guy who has proven not to be very easy to cover one-on-one.

As for Shane Vereen, it's tough to say. He wasn't healthy in training camp and didn't see the field much in the regular season. His only memorable action came late in a blowout win over the Chiefs and the league's seventh-worst run defense.

Vereen showed the type of quickness that could help him make a big impact in the short passing game and in the open field. Whether or not he's able to harness it and make an impact is another question, but certainly a full offseason will help.

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@ErikFrenz Can Miami a) win AFC East b) make playoffs with Matt Flynn? What about Manning?

— Andrew Manley (@apmanley) February 14, 2012"

I've gone on record as saying that the Dolphins aren't far from a good team. The difference this team showed when Matt Moore was under center as opposed to Chad Henne is indicative of the impact that position had on the team's play.

That simple fact has most fans clamoring for the Dolphins to make a big splash at quarterback.

Matt Flynn had success in extremely limited action. My question about him is, how much of that was a function of the talent surrounding him? 

With that being said, the Dolphins have talent on offense; enough, at least, to make Flynn's transition with the Dolphins a bit smoother. The fact that he played with new Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin when Philbin was the offensive coordinator for the Packers makes that transition even easier.

Picking up Flynn would be a very smart move for the Dolphins, but only at their price. They can't spend a ridiculous contract on him, the main reason being the limited sample size of his success.

As for Peyton Manning, it's looking more and more every day like he will remain with the Colts in 2012—that is, unless he doesn't want to. 

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@ErikFrenz Mailbag: What free agents might all four AFC East teams might be interested in pursuing?

— Richard Hill (@Rich__Hill) February 14, 2012"

"

Judging by the cap space (or lack thereof), the Jets don't look like they'll be big spenders in free agency. That is, of course, unless they unload a lot of money by cutting some players and renegotiating some deals.

It wouldn't be the first time, either, as fans of the team can attest to the team's massive restructuring fiasco when they were trying to land then-free agent cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha last year.

As mentioned above, the Dolphins and Flynn look like a good fit. If they don't go overboard on him, they'll have some cap money left over to hold over Kendall Langford, and could even make another move after it's all said and done. 

The Patriots and the Bills look like the two biggest contenders in free agency, with each boasting over $30 million in cap space. Both teams could be in the running for Mario Williams if he becomes a free agent, with the Bills a better fit because of Williams' natural fit in the 4-3 front.

The Bills have also brought in Stanford Routt for a workout, so they are clearly focusing on defense.

There are a lot of free-agent wide receivers the Patriots could be interested in, and though Brandon Lloyd has been a popular name in the northeast for awhile, things just got complicated as he signed with player agent Tom Condon, who has a sour relationship with the Patriots.

Reggie Wayne remains an option, and has expressed interest in joining the team. The Patriots haven't drafted well at receiver, and that is a position of need for them in the 2012 offseason.

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@ErikFrenz Is this a make-or-break year for Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez? One more bad season and they're both out?

— Andrea Hangst (@FBALL_Andrea) February 15, 2012"

I used to think so, but I'm not so sure anymore. While it's true that the duo failed to live up to expectations in 2011, the team has almost completely turned over its coaching staff from last season, and that change may have bought Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez more time.

Many have taken the stance that Sanchez's struggles were an immediate reflection on Brian Schottenheimer's system. It will be a little bit before we know that for sure, as it will take Sanchez some time to learn the new system of former Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, who is now the Jets offensive coordinator.

Opinion: Maybe it's more of a make-or-break season for general manager Mike Tannenbaum. His methods have left the Jets thin across the board, and that depth has come back to haunt the Jets in the past. 

Ryan has attached himself fervently to Sanchez and has gone so far as to say that as long as he is head coach, Sanchez will be the starting quarterback. That has yet to become an issue, but it's something to keep an eye on as the Jets get set for takeoff.

Alright, folks. That's all I've got this week. You can hit me up any time, any day on Twitter at the link below. Thanks for reading!

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