2012 NFL Mock Draft: Identifying Risk Factor for Draft's Top QBs

In our 2012 NFL mock draft, we identify some of the risks involved with taking the top quarterbacks available in this year's class:

Andrew Luck, Stanford

Is there any risk in Luck? He has all the tools you want in a quarterback, plus Luck dealt with the enormous hype of last season in stride. Indianapolis would be a difficult situation, but even replacing Peyton Manning doesn't appear to be a mountain he can't climb.

Robert Griffin III, Baylor

As polished as Luck is entering this draft, Griffin isn't far behind. The 2011 Heisman Trophy winner can make all the throws and his athleticism will be elite at the position the second he gets drafted. There's more development to be done with Griffin than Luck, but early indications are he could easily be a Day 1 starter in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Tannehill was shooting up boards before suffering an injury that has already kept him out of important pre-draft events. Teams are going to drool over the sky-high potential, but the fact remains that Tannehill doesn't have the experience or developed fundamentals that you want in a high pick. And for every successful project pick, 25 others never reach their potential. 

Nick Foles, Arizona

Foles has the arm and body of an NFL starter, but he lacks the athleticism that you'll find in the three quarterbacks listed above here. While not a requisite in an NFL quarterback—Tom Brady is very limited athletically—the pocket presence isn't always there. Foles is among the top senior quarterback prospects, but he has a ways to go. 

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

If Brandon Weeden were 21 years old instead of 27, he'd likely be a surefire first-round pick. Weeden stands tall in the pocket and delivers the football with accuracy and zip. However, teams are going to see his age and be turned off, especially if they don't think he can start right away. It'd be hard to justify taking a player that you may only get four to five good years out of and that's nearing the maximum. 

2012 NFL Mock Draft    

1.  Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2.  Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (Via trade with St. Louis Rams)  

3.  Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC

4.  Cleveland Browns – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

6.  St. Louis Rams – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (Via trade with Washington Redskins)

7.  Jacksonville Jaguars – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

8.  Carolina Panthers – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

9.  Miami Dolphins – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

10.  Buffalo Bills – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

11.  Kansas City Chiefs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

12.  Seattle Seahawks – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

13.  Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

14.  Dallas Cowboys – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

15.  Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

16.  New York Jets – Nick Perry, OLB, USC

17.  Cincinnati Bengals – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

18.  San Diego Chargers – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

19.  Chicago Bears – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

20.  Tennessee Titans – Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

22.  Cleveland Browns – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

23.  Detroit Lions – Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

24.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia

25.  Denver Broncos – Devon Still, DL, Penn State

26.  Houston Texans – Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

27.  New England Patriots – Mark Barron, S, Alabama

28.  Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois

29.  Baltimore Ravens – Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

30.  San Francisco 49ers – Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

31.  New England Patriots – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

32.  New York Giants – Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama