2012 Projections for Every New College Football Head Coach: BCS, Bowl or Bust?

The coaching carousel got under way early in 2011, with living legend Howard Schnellenberger announcing back in August that he would be leaving Florida Atlantic for the green pastures of retirement.

By the time the smoke had cleared, FAU was just one of 26 FBS programs announcing a new head coach would be taking over by the time the 2012 college football season kicked off.

Programs large and small were searching for new coaches, and that included the six programs that operated for at least a portion of the 2011 season with an interim head coach leading the way.

While big-time programs like Ohio State, Penn State, UCLA and Texas A&M all named new coaches, other programs eying the BCS—like Arizona, Ole Miss, Illinois and Washington State—will also have a fresh look on the sidelines come the fall.

So what is in store for fans in 2012? Are these new coaches destined to restore glory or bring new-found fame?

Let's take a look at the new hires, and project whether they'll guide their respective teams to the BCS, a bowl or bust all together.

Terry Bowden, Akron

It didn't take long for the Bowden family to get back into the FBS coaching game.

After his legendary father was rather unceremoniously put out to pasture at Florida State, Terry Bowden returned to the FBS for the first time since he resigned from the head coaching position at Auburn after starting the 1998 season 1-5.

Bowden eventually landed at Division II North Alabama, where he guided the Lions to a 29-10 mark over three seasons, earning his team a playoff berth every year, but never advancing out of UNA's respective region.

Although there were some questions about Bowden's penchant for throwing open the doors to FBS transfers (from, you guessed it, Florida State), especially considering it didn't translate into success in the playoffs, Bowden nonetheless increased his overall coaching record to 139-63-2—more than good enough to catch the eye of the MAC's Akron.

Akron finished the 2011 season with a 1-11 record, and is in desperate need of repair. The MAC is notoriously difficult to predict year to year, and wild swings in on-field success are not uncommon. But Akron proved to be a very bad team in a very bad conference, and it's unlikely Bowden will have the influx of Florida State rejects at Akron he did at North Alabama.

Projection: Bust

Garrick McGee, Alabama-Birmingham

As much as football is king in the state of Alabama, and especially at the University of Alabama, when you add the simple word “Birmingham” at the end, the average fans goes from respecting to snickering.

The University of Alabama at Birmingham may be the intellectual superior of its cousin down in Tuscaloosa (UAB being the primary research institution in the state, and one of the top 20 in the nation), but when it comes to football, there's no comparison—the boys down in Tuscaloosa our the best of the best.

So how likely is it that UAB will be headed to its first-ever bowl game in 2012, even with new head coach Garrick McGee at the helm?

Not very. It's probably a step too far to think that a perennial losing program like UAB can hire a head coach with no head coaching experience and suddenly make the leap to the ranks of bowl-eligible teams.

Projection: Bust

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona

When Rich Rodriguez was at Wast Virginia, it seemed he could do no wrong.

In seven seasons, his Mountaineers captured four Big East titles (over his last five seasons in Morgantown). He also guided WVU to three top-10 finishes, including a pair of BCS bowl victories (2006 Sugar Bowl and 2008 Fiesta Bowl).

Then, he actually did do something wrong in the eyes of Mountaineer fans; he decided to take a better job.

How dare he!

Somehow, WVU fans were under the dilution that West Virginia was anywhere close to being on par with a program like Michigan. Not even close.

But, Rodriguez got his just deserts, anyway.

Despite taking over at one of the most storied college football programs anywhere, not to mention the program with more wins than any other program in history, Rodriguez suffered three of the most humiliating seasons in the Wolverines' history.

From 60-26 at WVU to 15-22 at Michigan.

After being fired shortly after U-M's devastating loss to Mississippi State in the 2011 Gator Bowl, Rodriguez slipped into the analyst chair for CBS. It wasn't long, though, until someone came knocking—the Arizona Wildcats.

Rodriguez takes over a program that was just 4-8 in 2011, and tied for dead last in the Pac-12 South Division with a 2-7 conference mark.

Rodriguez will likely be more successful at Arizona than he was at Michigan. After all, he's not reworking a program from the ground up against the ingrained ideas of how to play football that come with 13 decades of history; the spread will be embraced at Arizona in a way it never could have been at Michigan.

But it's doubtful whether or not Rich Rod will be able to make any sort of instant turnaround happen.

Projection: Bust

Jim McElain, Colorado State

Colorado State is another program with a first-time head coach taking over.

Colorado State hired Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElain to guide the Rams over the next few seasons. While this is McElain's first venture into the head coaching realm, he has quite the wealth of experience from Alabama, and we can only assume Colorado State is desperately hoping some of that success rubs off in Fort Collins.

Colorado State hasn't been to a bowl game since 2008, and Rams have been downright terrible ever since, posting three 3-9 seasons.

While Jim McElain may prove to be a perfectly effective head coach at CSU, it's highly doubtful there will be any miracle turnarounds for the Rams in 2012.

Projection: Bust

Carl Pelini, Florida Atlantic

If the name looks familiar, it's likely because Carl Pelini is the older brother of Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini.

While Carl won't be at the helm of a program with nearly the prestige of his little bro, he brings several years of experience as a college assistant—and some name cred—to FAU.

But, it is Florida Atlantic. If a legendary coach like Howard Schnellenberger wasn't able to bring any sort of success to FAU in 2011 (the Owls finished 1-11 over all, and 0-8 in the weak Sun Belt conference), does Pelini stand much of a chance in 2012?

In a word, no.

Projection: Bust

Charlie Weis, Kansas

His hiring generated some giggling from people in South Bend, but it produced a fair amount of excitement in Lawrence. Charlie Weis has, after all, led a team to a BCS bowl before.

After five up-and-down seasons at Notre Dame, Weis was fired after posting a 35-27 record—subpar for a Fighting Irish coach.

After a single season at Florida as Will Muschamp's offensive coordinator, Weis found another gig as a head coach, this time at Kansas.

Weis' task will be to transform a 2-10 Jayhawks program into a contender in the new-look Big 12. Weis has all of the coaching tools necessary to do that, and he's already begun to make an impact in recruiting, bringing in 17 signees in his abbreviated first recruiting season, plus securing a transfer from Notre Dame's Dayne Crist.

But besides Crist, there's reason to doubt whether there will be any instant impact players coming to Lawrence for the first time this fall.

Projection: Bust

Justin Fuente, Memphis

Pretty much everyone saw the firing of Larry Porter coming down the mountain. Everyone, except perhaps Larry Potter.

But after two seasons and just three wins, it's hard to blame Memphis for cutting their losses and moving on.

But much like its last hiring (of Potter), Memphis chose to hire a coach with no previous head coaching experience. Fuente hasn't even held down a coordinator's position on his own in the FBS (he was co-offensive coordinator at TCU and offensive coordinator at FCS Illinois State). His performance as a head coach could end up being anything from brilliant to disastrous. Only time will tell.

But even if Fuente turns out to be the next great college football coach, it's going to take time to change the losing culture in Memphis. Right now, it's not a school that ranks high on the list of many prospects. It will take more than a few offseason months to change that.

Projection: Bust

Bob Davie, New Mexico

Bob Davie is back in the coaching game, and this time, he's landed at New Mexico.

The problem for Davie is that there are few programs over the past few years that have been as consistently bad as New Mexico.

The Lobos have won just three games over the past three years, with a combined record of 3-33 (1-11 each season).

Davie wasn't all that successful at Notre Dame (1997-2001), where he posted a record of 35-25. But compared to 3-11, that mark looks pretty good right now to New Mexico fans.

Don't be surprised, though, if it takes a lot longer than one season to begin the turnaround at New Mexico. The 2012 season won't be producing any magic.

Projection: Bust

Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss

After a bitterly disappointing 2011 season that saw the Rebels finish 2-10 (0-8), Houston Nutt apparently saw the writing on the wall, and resigned with a 24-26 record over his four seasons at Mississippi.

Hugh Freeze was tapped as his replacement, and inherits a program in general disarray.

Freeze comes from Arkansas State, where he led the Red Wolves to a 10-2 record in his only season as a head coach in the NCAA (Freeze has NAIA coaching experience at the now-non-existent Lambuth University, and was 20-5 over two seasons).

It's difficult to determine how much of an impact Freeze can make right away, but he's shown an ability to get his players to play at their maximum output for the long grind of the season, and Ole Miss is surely to have better athletes than Arkansas State, right?

But when your weekly schedule consists of teams like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas and the like, the road is a bit more rocky than you'd even find in the Sun Belt.

Projection: Bust

Curtis Johnson, Tulane

Becoming the head coach at Tulane is a little like saying you're the best kickball player on your block.

Sometimes the truth hurts, and the truth for Tulane is that it hasn't been a force in college football in our lifetimes.

Tulane hasn't even seen a bowl invitation since 2002. The Green Wave is hoping new head coach Curtis Johnson will be able to change that.

Johnson won't have to travel far for his new job. Johnson comes from the other tenant of the Louisiana Superdome, the New Orleans Saints, where he was the wide receivers coach.

Projection: Bust

Todd Graham, Arizona State

Arizona State had to be one of the bigger disappointments in 2011. By the time the season began, there were more than a few pundits picking ASU to win the Pac-12 South Division, and there wasn't much reason to think otherwise as the early season progressed. An impressive win over USC, and everything looked to be on track for the Sun Devils.

Then, reality hit, and the Devils began a precipitous slide that ended with a MAACO Bowl dismantling at the hands of Boise State. ASU finished 6-7.

In comes Todd Graham, hoping to stop the bleeding. Graham will be coaching his third FBS team in three seasons, but has posted a 49-29 record in his six seasons at Rice, Tulsa and Pittsburgh.

He now takes a step up in class to the Pac-12 as part of a new class of new head coaches in a conference looking to prove to the nation that it's more than USC and Oregon.

Graham's first task will be to replace the plethora of talent that is departing after the 2011 season. Dennis Erickson likely didn't leave the cupboard totally bare, and ASU's home in the much weaker of the two Pac-12 divisions should give the Devils an edge towards another bowl game at the end of 2012.

Projection: Bowl

Gus Malzahn, Arkansas State

You gotta start somewhere, and for Gus Malzahn, that somewhere just happens to be Arkansas State.

After spending the last few seasons under Gene Chizik at Auburn as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Malzahn now has his own program to direct.

Hopefully, Malzahn will be able to use some of that BCS championship know-how to keep a good thing going at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves were an impressive 10-3 last season. While a BCS berth is a pipe dream from any Sun Belt team at this point, a bowl game should be easily within Malzahn's grasp in his first season.

Projection: Bowl

Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State

After Pat Hill was fired from Fresno State, the Bulldogs hired Tim DeRuyter from Texas A&M to hopefully get the program back on the right track.

With the exception of last season's Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas as interim head coach for Texas A&M, this will be DeRuyter's first head coaching gig.

Fresno State moves over to the Mountain West Conference for 2012, joining longtime rival Boise State. DeRuyter and the Bulldogs will be hoping to improve upon last season's 4-9 mark, proving that 2011 was an aberration.

Fresno State had been averaging around eight wins per season over the previous few years, and there's no reason to believe that the Bulldogs won't be able to rebound with some fresh blood in the system.

Projection: Bowl

Norm Chow, Hawaii

There are worse places in the world to spend your life than Hawaii, and Norm Chow will have to find a way to adapt to living in paradise.

After spending the last few seasons as a coordinator in the Pac-12 (for UCLA and Utah), Chow moves out to O'ahu to take over for retiring Greg McMackin.

Hawaii is moving to the Mountain West Conference for 2012, and will be looking to return to a bowl game after barely missing out last season with a 6-7 regular season mark.

Chow certainly has the expertise to get the maximum effort from his players, and his connections up and down the west coast could pay recruiting dividends in years to come.

Projection: Bowl

Tony Levine, Houston

Tony Levine takes over for Kevin Sumlin at Houston, and the Cougars will be an interesting team to watch in 2012.

The player who carried his team on his back more than any other person in college football—Case Keenum—is finally walking off campus after six years.

The success of Houston over the recent past is directly attributable to whether or not Keenum was playing. When he was, the Cougars were 42-14. When he was out due to injury, the Cougars were just 3-7.

While Levine was able to secure a minor coup with the stealing of 4-Star prospect Deontay Greenberry (who decommited from Notre Dame), it's important to note that a prospect's rating fades quickly once they step onto a college field for the first time.

Greenberry will also need a quarterback to throw to him, and there are a lot of question marks hanging over the Houston program right now.

While Houston is still good enough to win six games without Case Keenum, any talk of a BCS berth moving forward is just silly.

Projection: Bowl

Tim Beckman, Illinois

Illinois fans can finally breathe. Ron Zook is, at long last, gone.

After seven underperforming seasons at Illinois, Zook was finally fired after coaching the first team in major college football history to begin a season 6-0 and finish 6-6.

As bad (or more correctly, as not good) as Zook was, Illinois is still a school that can attract decent talent, and the Illini should be in a position to be at least close to bowl contention in 2012, even without a new coach.

Tim Bckman was hired to replace Zook after posting a 21-16 record at Toledo over the previous three seasons.

Beckman has also held a number of top coaching positions at top programs, including defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State and cornerbacks coach at Ohio State.

Beckman should be able to hold things together long enough to begin the task of building a team that might be able to compete with the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big Ten.

While that journey will take a good deal of time, effort and a little luck, Illinois should be able to find a way to win six games next season, even if it's not in conference play.

Projection: Bowl

Larry Fedora, North Carolina

North Carolina's football program has certainly endured more than its fair share of disappointments over the past few seasons, what with scandals, suspensions, dismissals and now the firing of Butch Davis.

After a season under the interim direction of Everett Withers, UNC is looking for a fresh start with Larry Fedora from Southern Mississippi.

To date, Fedora's biggest accomplishment came just a few months ago, as his Southern Miss team upset Houston in the 2011 Conference USA championship game, earning the Golden Eagles their first conference title since 2003.

Fedora is 34-19 in his four seasons, all at Southern Miss, and UNC is hoping that the steady success he has shown in the past will bring a calming influence to a program in turmoil in Chapel Hill.

Projection: Bowl

Bill O'Brien, Penn State

In one of the more questioned hirings of the offseason, New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien was announced as the permanent replacement for the late, great Joe Paterno at Penn State.

One of the early concerns was the O'Brien had no connection to the university, and was a total outside to the Nittany Lions program. But in light of recent events in State College, perhaps that is exactly what the administration was looking for.

The next area of concern was the fact that O'Brien was at the time still the offensive coordinator for the Patriots. The question was raised about O'Brien's availability for recruiting duties given New England's likely deep run in the NFL playoffs (the Pats, of course, ended up winning their conference, earning a trip to yet another Super Bowl).

Those fears may have been realized, as Rivals.com lists Penn State as having the seventh-best recruiting class in the Big Ten, signing as many 4-Star prospects as Michigan and Ohio State signed 5-Star prospects (two each). Penn State also received commitments from 19 players, while six Big Ten programs had 24 or more signees.

But the biggest concern for Penn State is perhaps the area where O'Brien can help the most: the offense.

The Nittany Lions were absolutely anemic with the ball last season, and their inability to score points led to their eventual undoing, missing the Big Ten championship game with late-season losses to Nebraska and Wisconsin (although Penn State did capture a share of the Leaders Division title, with Wisconsin winning the head-to-head tie-breaker).

Moving forward is something Penn State is desperate to do.

In the light of the shocking and sickening allegations surrounding a former assistant coach, it's important to remember that no one remaining at Penn State had anything to do with the alleged crimes or the failure to adequately act upon information about those crimes.

Penn State has effectively purged the program, and earning a bowl invite in 2012 will not only be welcomed, but sorely needed for a program suffering from too much sorrow.

Projection: Bowl

Paul Chryst, Pittsburgh

Paul Chryst is another new head coach guiding his own team for the first time in 2012.

Taking over for Todd Graham who is moving to Arizona State after just one season, Chryst will hopefully bring some stability to the program, considering that Chryst is now the fourth head coach in just over a year (although, in fairness, Michael Haywood was coach for all of about a week).

Pitt earned its fourth-straight bowl invite at the end of the 2011 season, and Pitt will begin its final Big East season before moving to the ACC for 2013.

The Big East will be a different, although not necessarily tougher conference in 2012, and Pitt should be able to make adequate preparations for the ACC by improving on last season's 6-7 mark.

Projection: Bowl

Kyle Flood, Rutgers

Kyle Flood is taking over at Rutgers in his first foray as a head football coach.

Flood has been an assistant at Rutgers since 2006, and takes over a program that's in pretty decent shape, all things considered.

Sure, the conference is imploding around the Scarlet Knights, and there are lingering questions about the quality of competition in the Big East, but six wins are six wins. Rutgers has been able to shut out all of the noise, and earn bowl trips in six of the last seven seasons.

Rutgers was also the only Big East program to secure a commitment from a 5-Star prospect this season (DE, Darius Hamilton), and he's good enough to make an instant impact for Flood and the Knights.

While we aren't expecting eye-popping performance in Piscataway in 2012, we're not expecting a massive fall-off, either. Rutgers will be losing some talent to the NFL, but there's enough star-power returning to make a possible run at the Big East title next season (depending on where West Virginia lands).

A conference championship (and the BCS berth that goes along with it) is an outside chance, though, so we're hedging our bets and projecting Flood's first performance a bit lower than a BCS trip.

Projection: Bowl

Ellis Johnson, Southern Mississippi

Replacing Larry Fedora at Southern Mississippi is Ellis Johnson, who has spent the last several seasons as Steve Spurrier's assistant head coach at South Carolina.

This won't be Johnson's first go as a head coach, however. He has previous experience as the head coach at then-Division II (now FCS) Gardner-Webb and FCS The Citadel, posting a combined record of 17-28.

Southern Mississippi has been a consistent bowl participant, earning an invite each of the last 10 seasons. There's no reason to believe the Eagles won't be able to continue that streak moving forward.

On a side note, one has to wonder if they make those hats with the Southern Miss logo...

Projection: Bowl

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M

Much like fans of Illinois, Texas A&M fans can begin to look to the future now that Mike Sherman has coached his last game for the Aggies.

Kevin Sumlin will be making the short drive from Houston to take over at A&M, and Sumlin brings quite the résumé with him.

While not a BCS résumé many had hoped for, Sumlin has posted a 35-17 record at Houston, mainly on the back (or the arm) of Case Keenum. Now that Keenum is leaving Houston, Sumlin smartly opted to make his exit, as well.

Along with a new coach, A&M will be taking on a new conference in 2012. The Aggies move from the Big 12 to the SEC, and it's going to be a difficult task simply to hold serve in their new conference home.

The SEC is a different beast from the Big 12, and making any improvements on last season's 7-6 record will be difficult against competition like Alabama, LSU and Arkansas.

Sumlin and the Aggies did, however, have a good first outing in the recruiting world this season, hauling in 19 commitments, including one 5-Star and six 4-Star prospects. Whether any of that will have an immediate impact, however, is doubtful.

Still, there's something to be said about the excitement of a new coach and new conference, and we're likely to see A&M back in a bowl game next season.

Projection: Bowl

Matt Campbell, Toledo

Matt Campbell takes over at Toledo for Tim Beckman, who was hired by Illinois.

Campbell is a new head coach, other than guiding the Rockets to a narrow victory over Air Force in the 2011 Military Bowl.

After spending the last several seasons as an assistant under Beckman at Toledo, Campbell's interim position was made permanent after the Military Bowl victory.

While teams in the MAC are subject to wild swings from one year to the next, Toledo showed the ability to score on demand in 2011 (even if the defense also allowed opponent to score on demand). If Campbell can bring the defense under control in 2012, you can expect another bowl trip for the Rockets.

Projection: Bowl

Jim Mora, UCLA

You sort of, kind of have to feel bad for Rick Neuheisel, right?

I mean, the pressure of winning at your alma mater has to be greater than the pressure to win anywhere else, and when the instant success wasn't forthcoming, the administration turned on the poor guy pretty quickly.

Plus, he led the Bruins to the first-ever Pac-12 South Division title, and his reward was a pink slip.

Ouch.

But it's time to move forward, and UCLA opted to do so with an interesting selection for head coach. Rather than tapping the plethora of FBS coordinators or snatching a head coach away from another program, the Bruins hired a man who hasn't been involved in the college game since his days as a graduate assistant at Washington—in 1984.

Jim Mora now takes over at UCLA, and the big-name hire seems to have already produced dividends.

Mora secured one of the top three recruiting classes in the Pac-12 (according to Rivals.com), including a 5-Star signee, and eight 4-Star prospects.

While UCLA will now have to contend with a fully-eligible USC if there is any hope of defending its 2011 Pac-12 South Division title, Mora should be able to at least hold par with last season at the absolute worst.

Projection: Bowl

Mike Leach, Washington State

We could go on and on about the circumstances surrounding Mike Leach's firing from Texas Tech, and like any good story, there are two sides.

Leach, unfortunately, hasn't had the venue to air his grievances in quite the same way the other side had, but it's nice to see a successful coach back in the game.

Leach was a successful head coach at Tech, posting an 84-43 record for the Red Raiders before being fired under questionable circumstances.

But Leach found a job about as far away from Texas as one can get in the college football game, taking the job at Washington State.

WSU may not be the same level of program as Texas Tech, but at least everyone's favorite commentator to hate, ESPN's Craig James, won't have too much influence over his new bosses.

Leach takes over for Paul Wulff, who was fired in the midst of a pretty decent rebuilding job he was doing at WSU. While the Cougars weren't winning most of their games, they were competitive in many more games than many thought possible when the season began.

Leach's primary task will be to build on that momentum going forward, and relying on talent already in place will be key after a disappointing recruiting season.

Projection: Bowl

Urban Meyer, Ohio State

So much for not coaching any more due to his health.

Urban Meyer just couldn't stay away from the game we all love, and it probably didn't take a whole lot of cajoling to get the native Ohioan to accept the head coaching position at Ohio State.

Ohio State needed a clean slate after the fiasco brought on by Jim Tressel's slimy cover-up of a comparatively minor NCAA infraction.

Compliance woes aside, Ohio State is still one of the premiere programs in the nation, and Urban Meyer is one of the premiere coaches in the nation. Put them together, and you have a recipe for BCS success.

But will Meyer be able to achieve the same success at Brady Hoke did at Michigan in his first season?

Meyer takes over an Ohio State team with more than its share of talent, but it's probably not quite as stacked as Michigan was when Hoke came in.

Meyer is every bit Hoke's match when it comes to coaching, but the fact of the matter is there are only so many BCS slots to go around (two, at most), and it's still questionable as to whether or not Ohio State can knock off the current mountaintop residents of Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan.

But since Ohio State is ineligible for the Big Ten championship game in 2012, or any bowl berth, this selection is easy. The 2012 season will be a bust.

But that bust comes with an asterisk.

Don't worry, Buckeye fans. If your program can keep its nose clean with Meyer at the helm, the BCS invites won't take too long in arriving. That's why we're going to go ahead and give Urban Meyer a BCS projection—in his first season of eligibility, that is.

Projection: BCS*