Kobe Bryant: Breaking Down Mamba's Odds of Passing NBA's Top 4 Scorers
Los Angeles Lakers star Kobe Bryant passed his former teammate Shaquille O'Neal to move into fifth on the NBA's all-time scoring list Monday night and now has 28,601 career points. But how high will the Lakers star climb?
Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are the next players in front of Bryant from fourth to first.
Let's break down the odds that Bryant passes each of these players and moves into first place on the NBA's all-time scoring list.
4) Wilt Chamberlain: 100 percent chance
The former Philadelphia 76ers center scored 31,419 points during his Hall of Fame career and is currently 2,818 points ahead of Bryant.
It's safe to say Bryant won't pass Chamberlain this year, especially with the lockout-shortened season, but he will certainly move past the legendary center next season.
Bryant is still a top scorer in the NBA and benefits from his ability to shoot three-pointers, free throws and mid-range shots well on a consistent basis.
Expect Bryant to pass Chamberlain by the middle of next season.
3) Michael Jordan: 100 percent chance
The only thing Kobe Bryant is interested in tying or passing Michael Jordan in is number of NBA championships, which Kobe made clear to the Los Angeles Times after he passed Shaq on the all-time scoring list Monday night:
""I just want No. 6, man," he said, referring to his five championship rings. "I'm not asking too much. Just get me a sixth one."
"
Well, Bryant will pass Jordan at some point and it might be next season. He is currently 3,691 points behind Jordan's total of 32,292 points, which ranks third in NBA history.
If Bryant remains a 20-plus points per game scorer for this season and next, he could pass Jordan next year or during the 2013-14 season. Either way, it's almost a certainty he will pass MJ.
2) Karl Malone: 75 percent chance
This is where it gets interesting because Malone's 36,928 is a whopping 8,327 points ahead of Kobe's current total.
If Kobe continues at his current rate this season of 29 points per game, he will score 1,914 points, which would give him 30,515 at the end of the year. That would put him 6,413 points behind Malone heading into the 2013-14 season.
If Kobe plays for four more years after this season, he would need just 1,604 points per season to reach Malone and pass him for No. 2 all-time on the scoring list. This is certainly a possibility since Bryant does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
Scoring 1,604 points in a season is a points per game average of 19.55, which Bryant is certainly capable of doing for several more seasons.
By the time Bryant retires, there is a strong chance he passes Malone for No. 2 all-time.
1) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 20 percent chance
In 20 NBA seasons, former Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks star Kareem Abdul-Jabbar averaged 24.6 points for his career and leads the league's all-time scoring list with 38,387 points.
Kobe passed Kareem this season for most points in Lakers history, but can he pass the legendary center on the NBA's all-time list?
He could, but he needs five more seasons of at least 20-plus points per game and has to remain healthy enough to do that. Injuries could play a part in whether or not Bryant reaches No. 1 because the Lakers star has been bothered by finger and knee injuries since 2008.
Bryant is in his 16th NBA season, and that does not include a little more than two-and-a-half seasons' worth of playoff games he's taken part in. That's a ton of basketball for someone who came into the NBA straight from high school as an 18-year-old kid.
Bryant is 9,786 points away from tying Abdul-Jabbar for the top spot on the all-time scoring list and needs 2,446 points per season for the next four years to reach Kareem (if he keeps up his current 29 PPG average for this season).
Scoring 2,446 points in a season is 29 PPG, which Bryant won't be able to do for the next four years. Bryant has only scored more than 2,446 points in a season twice: the 2002-03 season, when he racked up 2,461 points, and the 2005-06 season, when he scored 2,832 points. He hasn't scored more than 2,201 since the 2007-08 season.
Bryant will need at least five more strong scoring seasons to pass Abdul-Jabbar for the NBA's career scoring crown, which is a lot to ask an aging player to do. Bryant could pass him eventually if he plays another five to six seasons and averages a decent number of points per game.
This is unlikely, however, and considering Bryant's recent injuries, plus the fact he's played 18 seasons' worth of basketball including playoffs, there is not a good chance Kobe will become the all-time leading scorer.
Nicholas Goss is an NBA Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
