Super Bowl 2012: Ranking the New England Patriots' Top MVP Candidates

Super Bowl XLVI is coming and the New England Patriots will face off against the New York Giants to determine the NFL's 2012 champion.  If the Patriots win, who will be the Super Bowl MVP?

Predicting Super Bowl MVP winners is a tricky business.  Defensive players almost never win the award, which limits the possibilities to offensive skill players.  But that still leaves several compelling options on the Patriots' prolific offense.  Not to mention, there is always an unsung hero who throws a wrench in the mix.

In 2011, unheralded receiver Jordy Nelson caught nine passes for 140 yards to help the Green Bay Packers win 31-25, but Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was Super Bowl MVP.  Yet, when workhorse receiver Deion Branch caught 11 balls for 133 yards in the 2005 Super Bowl, he was named MVP over quarterback Tom Brady.

So who will come away with the MVP trophy this year?

Tom Brady

Mr. Gisele Bundchen is the clear-cut choice for Super Bowl XLVI MVP if the New England Patriots take home the Lombardi Trophy. Tom Brady was quietly the best quarterback in the AFC (and possibly the NFL) this season.  He passed for 5,235 yards, which broke Dan Marino's 1984 passing yards record and would have been the most ever if not for Drew Brees' incredible season.

Brady was also efficient—he completed 65.6 percent of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards/attempt, which were stronger numbers than in his 2007 season when he finished with 4,806 yards on 8.3 yards/attempts. Brady had 50 touchdowns that season, which was more than this year's 39, but the current Patriots offense is built to spread the ball to different weapons and win with short passes rather than deep balls. So, Brady is playing to his offenses' strengths and it is paying off: The Patriots averaged over 30 points per game in the regular season and crushed the Denver Broncos 45-10 in the Divisional Round.

But the Super Bowl is one game, and as Brady learned in 2007, the regular season is irrelevant when the two potential champions step on to the field.  So, what makes Brady the likely MVP of Super Bowl XLVI if his New England Patriots avenge their 2007 loss and defeat the New York Giants?

Brady's rapid-fire release and poise in the pocket will help against the Giants' intimidating defensive front. The Giant's defensive ends punish quarterbacks who hold on to the ball too long; Alex Smith suffered several brutal sacks in the NFC Championship Game because he would not throw it away. Brady tends to avoid those sacks by releasing the ball quickly and his receivers are particularly adept at catching shorter passes over the middle of the field or right up against the sideline.

In particular, tight end Rob Gronkowski is enormous and can catch anything in his area, which makes him Brady's safety valve; Julian Edelman moves all over the field and is nearly un-guardable, and the corner receiving combination of Wes Welker and Deion Branch has big-game winning experience. Brady's worst problem with the 2007 New York Giants' defense was the 2007 Patriots' lack of a big-game possession receiver who could catch short passes on crucial downs.  But the man who did it for them in their two Super Bowl victories earlier in the decade, Deion Branch, is back in the fold for this run, which should help Brady avoid errors and pass efficiently to his plethora of offensive weapons.

In fact, it is the Patriots' sheer number of offensive weapons that makes Brady the odds-on Super Bowl MVP favorite if New England wins the game.  The Patriots' defense is hardly dominant, so if New England wins it is likely to come with a strong offensive performance.  If that happens, Brady will have big numbers and will likely spread the love between Rob Gronkowski, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Aaron Hernandez.  When you have that many instruments and one conductor, how can you not give the trophy to the man making the music?

Rob Gronkowski

"Gronk," as fans teasingly call Rob Gronkowski, is the New England Patriots' All Pro tight end, their best receiving option and the clear-cut favorite for the Super Bowl MVP award if the Patriots win the game without a stellar effort from Tom Brady.  Whew that was a mouthful.  But it does not even begin to clarify how crucial Rob Gronkwoski is to the Patriots' offense and their potential success or failure in Super Bowl XLVI.

Good tight ends are often called quarterback "security blankets" because they give their signal caller a big target to throw to when he is in trouble.  Gronkowski is more of a colossal statue than a blanket and his role in the Patriots' offensive scheme is more significant: Not only is he Tom Brady's safety valve, he is also a bulldozing receiver after the catch.  He scored a record 18 touchdowns in 2011 and his 17 receiving touchdowns were the most ever by a tight end in an NFL season!  

Rob Gronkowski is also proving to be a clutch postseason performer.  He caught 10 balls for 145 yards to lead the Patriots' 45-10 rout of the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round and contributed five catches for 87 yards in their AFC Championship win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Gronkowski's biggest Super Bowl MVP challenge will be to truly outshine the other impressive weapons in the Patriots' offensive arsenal.  His fellow tight end, Aaron Hernandez, can run big plays out of the backfield.  Wes Welker is the best slot receiver in the NFL.  Deion Branch is often considered the best big-game receiver of the 2000s and won a Super Bowl MVP in 2004 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Young receiver Julian Edelman even plays defense when the occasion calls for it.  

So, lining up against all those weapons, can Rob Gronkowski shine so brightly that he wins the Super Bowl XLVI MVP?

Wes Welker

If you are a gambler, bet on "Slot Machine" Wes Welker, the Patriot's best wide receiver.  If Rob Gronkowski isn't the New England Patriots' best offensive weapon, then it has to be Welker.  

Since 2007, when he was traded from the Miami Dolphins to New England, Welker has caught more passes than any other player in the league and been in the Top 5 in yardage.  He has been a four-time Pro Bowl player (2008-11) and three-time NFL receptions leader (2007, 2009, 2011). Welker is Tom Brady's most dependable target, particularly when he is lined up in the slot, and his performance will be crucial to helping Brady get balls out quickly and making sure the Patriots effectively neutralize the Giants' pass rush.

Wes Welker is also a clutch postseason performer.  In New England's 2007 Super Bowl loss against the Giants, he was a bright spot on a bad day—hauling in a record 11 passes to keep the chains moving and help the Patriots build a 14-10 late-game lead.  In 2009, his absence with a torn-up knee helped seal the Patriots' fate against the Baltimore Ravens. So, his ability to catch short and medium length passes will be crucial to making sure the Patriots' offense cam keep moving down-field, run down the clock, and keep the Giants' offense on the sideline.

But Welker is less likely to win the Super Bowl MVP than Gronkowski because he does not haul in many touchdowns.  He is one of the best chain-moves and short yardage receivers in the league, but Welker is not a credible deep threat and he is not a big target in the red zone.  So, if the New England Patriots win, MVP honors are likely to go either to the man who threw the touchdowns (Brady) or the man most adept at catching them.  

Deion Branch

No Super Bowl XLVI MVP discussion would be complete without mentioning Deion Branch, the New England Patriots' MVP of Super Bowl XXXIX.  For all Tom Brady's success, Branch remains the last New England Patriot to win a Superbowl MVP.  Can he do it again?

Nearly a decade later, Deion Branch is more of a complimentary player.  In 2004, Branch was the Patriots' top receiving target and a hero of their 2003 Super Bowl winning team.  Branch had an astounding 11 catches for 133 yards in his Super Bowl XXXIX triumph.  Branch remains an important, clutch player who will be essential for the Patriots' success in Super Bowl XLVI.  But considering that he is the Patriots' third best receiver after Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker, Branch is unlikely to see 11 targets, let alone catch 11 balls.

Still, Branch remains one of the NFL's most clutch postseason performers and the Patriots' best deep threat receiver.  So, if there is a late game hero, Branch could very well be the one standing in the end-zone.

Fringe MVP Contenders

It is a testament to the New England Patriots' plethora of offensive weapons that there is even a "fringe contenders" slide after Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Deion Branch.  But on a team-first offense with multiple weapons, anyone can be the hero.

Just who is "anyone?"  The best outside bet would be Julian Edelman.  Edelman is a versatile young receiver who looks like a mini-Wes Welker and plays like a cross between a spark plug and an energizer rabbit. If anything happens to Welker, Edelman will become the team's primary slot and yardage receiver and could be in for a record-breaking game.  He also plays defense when needed and occasionally returns punts and kicks so if an all-around contributing hero wins the Super Bowl XLVI MVP, it might well be Edelman.

Aaron Hernandez is the other real possibility.  He is the second half of the Patriots' vaunted tight-end tandem and an important weapon in their offensive scheme.  Hernandez often takes balls out of the backfield, which helps balance the Patriots' air-heavy attack and sometimes leads to big plays.  Plus, if anything happens to Gronkowski, he could become the focal point.

So, who do you think will be Super Bowl XLVI's MVP?