Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: First-Round Picks in a 5x5 12-Team League

It's a buy-low year on Joey Votto.

His power dipped in 2011, especially in the first half, and his team's struggles down the stretch overshadowed a sneaky-good finish.

Votto didn't dominate headlines, but he did finish with the National League's best OBP for the second year in a row and slugged a healthy 29 home runs.

His high-average, high-power combo is as good as any outside the Pujols-Cabrera faction. At 28, he's on the front end of his prime. First base is deep, but Votto is too good to fall far.

It's human nature to devalue numbers ending in nine. That's why retailers always market at one cent below the dollar. The same sentiment holds for fantasy baseball, and guys that finish with 31 HR always make bigger waves than guys who hit 29. You can get great value on the 29-HR guy as your competitors splurge on the 30-HR power. Keep an eye out for those statistical mirages and know how to manipulate them.

1. Albert Pujols

I know what you're thinking, and no, it isn't 2008.

So why pick Pujols, an aging bat at a stocked position?

Easy, because even at 32, Pujols is the safest pick in fantasy baseball.

Other players ebb and flow with the seasons, but not Pujols. When healthy he's a top ten fantasy player every year. That claim doesn't hold for any other player, at least not for 11 seasons running.

Also, consider that his move to the American League adds a bit of value. A few games at DH should have him fresher and less prone to injury, while the added offense figures to earn him a few more at-bats.

Just a few more reasons to take fantasy baseball's steadiest commodity with the first overall pick.

2. Miguel Cabrera

I used to call Miguel Cabrera the "Albert Pujols of the American League" for his unimpeachable consistency at the plate and his evident American League-iness.

Pujols' move to the Angels voids that moniker, and the "Albert Pujols of the AL Central" feel like more a sleight than anything.

So I'll ditch the comparison and simply reiterate that Miguel Cabrera is very, very good at hitting.

He's had at least 30 home runs in each of the past five seasons and he's the only player to top a 1.000 OPS in both of the last two years.

Amazing to think folks questioned his fantasy value last year because of ongoing off-field issues. Cabrera is a Hall-of-Fame hitter and it seems no level of distraction can stop his stroke, especially not an injury to Victor Martinez.

Cabrera was a great hitter before Martinez batted behind him and he'll continue to rank among the league's best in V-Mart's absence.

3. Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista was the hardest player to value in last year's fantasy draft.

No one knew what to make of a 30-year-old former journeyman coming off the most unlikely home run championship in baseball history. He played like a first-round talent in 2010, but he smelled like a fluke (or worse, a cheat).

Another home run championship later and we know where Jose Bautista stands. Bautista is one of fantasy's five best position players. Lingering doubts no longer have a place in Bautista's projected totals.

It's important to note, however, that Bautista may not qualify as a third baseman in fantasy leagues next year. With top prospect Brett Lawrie penciled in as the everyday man at the hot corner for the Blue Jays, Bautista figures to stick in right field.

He's worth more at third base—though at the pace he set last year, Bautista's worth plenty anywhere on the diamond.

4. Troy Tulowitzki

After Troy Tulowitzki, the pickings grow slim at the shortstop position.

Consider the rest of the field.

Jose Reyes can be a top 20 fantasy performer at his best, but no one wants to put that level of faith in such brittle hammies. Starlin Castro is a few years away, and in a troubling legal perdicament. Hanley Ramirez doesn't even play the position anymore.

Then who?

Jhonny Peralta? Asdrubal Cabrera?

Scan the rest of the names and my point becomes clearer. Tulowitzki gives you guaranteed production at a position many of your rivals will struggle to fill.

He won't give you the raw output of a Miguel Cabrera, but, if you can pair him with a second-tier first baseman like Paul Konerko then the overall yield looks outstanding.

5. Matt Kemp

Last year's top fantasy performer has his red flags—big spikes in ISO and BAbip come to mind—but, there's still ample reason to pick Matt Kemp in the first round.

Perhaps you missed that little bit about him being last year's top fantasy performer. Players as good as Matt Kemp was last year don't usually lay an egg the following season.

And although I don't expect him to match 2011's totals, there's some precedent in what he's accomplished.

Sure, 39 home runs is a lot, but Kemp hit 26 and 28 in the two seasons prior. And maybe he can't steal 40 bases again, but he did swipe 35 in 2008.

No one in baseball has Kemp's skill set, and at 27, expect his production to plateau as he enters his prime. In Kemp''s case, that's a good thing.

6. Joey Votto

It's a buy-low year on Joey Votto.

His power dipped in 2011, especially in the first half, and his team's struggles down the stretch overshadowed a sneaky-good finish.

Votto didn't dominate headlines, but he did finish with the National League's best OBP for the second year in a row and slugged a healthy 29 home runs.*

His high-average, high-power combo is as good as any outside the Pujols-Cabrera faction. Plus, at 28, he's on the front end of his prime. First base is deep, but Votto is too good to fall far.

It's human nature to devalue numbers ending in a nine. That's why retailers always market at one cent below the dollar. The same holds for fantasy baseball, and guys that finish with 31 HR always make bigger waves than guys who hit 29. You can get great value on the 29-HR guy as your competitors splurge on the 30-HR power. Keep an eye out for those statistical mirages and know how to manipulate them.

7. Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez led the league in BAbip last year, so it's safe to assume his .338 batting average in 2011 is on the way down.

However, it's also worth noting that his ISO hit a five-year low last season and that at 29 it might have been more bad luck than actual decline. If his power numbers even up with his batting average,  Gonzalez could be worth even more than he was last year.

No matter how those details play out, Gonzalez is a near lock to finish among the top 15 position players in fantasy baseball barring any injury.

8. Robinson Cano

It's neck-and-neck between Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia for the top spot at second base, but Cano gets the slight edge for his power and consistency.

At their respective peaks, Pedroia is just as valuable. He won't match Cano in home runs or total bases, but he accounts for the difference with a clear advantage in steals.

Cano is just a bit easier to project, with his three consecutive years averaging over 20 home runs and a slugging percentage .520 or above.

He has rare power for the middle infield and, up to this point in his career, has a clean bill of health. Cano has started 159 games or more in each of the past five seasons.

9. Jacoby Ellsbury

After a miserable, injury-riddled 2010, Jacoby Ellsbury put together an MVP-caliber 2011.

Can he repeat it?

That's the big question, followed by a blinking, red sub-question: Could he hit that many home runs again?

Over 1049 minor league at bats, Ellsbury hit just 10 home runs.

Over his first 1372 major league at bats, Ellsbury hit just 20 home runs.

Over 660 at bats last year, Ellsbury hit 32 home runs.

Even if you buy the notion that Ellsbury grew into his power at 27 years old, that' a mighty big jump to sustain next year. It feels a tad Joe Mauer-ish if you ask me, and it puts a red flag on the Ellsbury name come draft day.

But now that we've seen his elite fantasy potential manifested, the Boston center fielder won't fall past the top ten. And if the power numbers regress, his combination of speed and ability to hit for high average still make him a safe first-round choice.

10. Curtis Granderson

Though his 41 home runs last year came as some surprise, Curtis Granderson's power surge wasn't completely without precedent.

He's quietly put together five consecutive seasons with over 20 home runs and never had an OPS below .780 during that same stretch.

Concerns about his age—he'll be 31 when the season starts—are no doubt assuaged by his past production, and Yankee stadium's favorable dimensions.

So long as he's healthy, expect Granderson to top 25 home runs and 20 steals. Few others can match that production in two key fantasy categories.

11. Dustin Pedroia

Save for the indignity of ranking right behind a Yankee, Dustin Pedroia's place in the first round should have Boston fans beaming over the second-baseman's trajectory.

After breaking a bone in his foot during 2010, Pedroia showed no ill-effect last year and managed to notch career highs in home runs, OPS+ and steals.

That's both good news and bad news for his fantasy value.

It proves he's healthy, but also throws into question whether or not he's capable of another season like 2010.

I'd talk you down from the latter since Pedroia has neared all of those career highs in past years. Maybe he doesn't match 2010 number for number, but he figures to at least get close in every major category.

And at 28, save room for the possibility that his power continues to develop.

12. Justin Upton

Among the many standout features of Justin Upton's game, the most striking is his age. At just 24, Upton is the youngest member of this mock first round, and the one with the most potential to improve.

He reached new highs in home runs and steals last year, but the fact that his OPS was actually a tad lower than his 2009 output suggests his breakout 2011 was no aberration.

Upton has 35+ HR potential along with the ability to hit over .300. That, combined with the safety net of past performance—a rare trait in a player so young—, make him the perfect talent to dream on at the tail end of the first round.

In years ahead, Upton should be long gone before the 12th pick.

Note: As you've no doubt surmised by now, this mock draft operates under the assumption that Ryan Braun will not be the first player in MLB history to successfully appeal a positive drug test. Missing the first 50 games drops him out of the first round in my book. It'll be interesting to see how others value his prorated production considering he is such an elite fantasy performer.