Saints vs. 49ers: Familiar Script Favors San Francisco over New Orleans

Tell me if you've heard this before.

The New Orleans Saints, with Drew Brees at the helm of one of the NFL's most explosive offenses, walk into a bar head West to take on the NFC West champion in a playoff game. The Saints are favored to beat said NFC West champion, a team that supposedly doesn't have the firepower to keep pace with New Orleans and, as such, is destined to fall, despite having home-field advantage.

Instead, the underdog, coached by a plucky Pac-10 mastermind in his first season (back) out of college football, has to rely on top-notch special teams, a lockdown defense and a physical running game to make hay while its quarterback manages the game and doesn't make mistake.

Sound familiar? It should, and if it doesn't, allow me to refresh your memory:

Now, I'm not saying that Frank Gore is necessarily going to summon his inner Marshawn Lynch and embark on a Skittle-induced "Beast Mode" rampage over, around and through the Saints' soft run defense. I'm not saying that Alex Smith is necessarily going to outplay Lil' Breesy like Matt Hasselbeck did during the Seattle Seahawks' shocking 41-36 win over the then-defending Super Bowl champs at CenturyLink Field right around this time last year.

All I'm saying is, don't be surprised if it's deja vu all over again when the Saints take on the 49ers this afternoon.

It's almost too perfect to be true, but still too perfect to deny. The Saints have fared well against some strong defenses this year, putting up 30 points on the Chicago Bears and 40 points on the Houston Texans.

But those totals came at home, at the Superdome, where the Saints score nearly two touchdowns per game more than they do on the road.

Not that Candlestick Park will be at all comparable to, say, the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field or the Frosty Aftershave of Gillette Stadium, but playing through whipping winds and on real grass (as opposed to artificial turf) could slow down the Saints' offense just enough to give the Niners a real shot to keep pace.

But if New Orleans dictates tempo and lights up the scoreboard as Sean Payton sees fit, then San Fran will be stuck in neutral. Alex Smith has been steady this year, but not nearly spectacular enough to spearhead an epic comeback or stay in stride amidst a shootout.

Instead, the Niners' success has largely been predicated on sticking to Jim Harbaugh's game plan—run the ball early and often to set up the occasional play-action pass—regardless of score and situation. That strategy served the Niners well in a 20-point comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles early on in the season, though few would dare mistake Andy Reid's team for Lil' Brees and the Who Dats.

Still, if any team is going to pull off an historic upset in the divisional round, it's the 49ers. They need only consult Pete Carroll's Seahawks, their old NFC West foes, to figure out how.

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