Portland Trail Blazers: Are They NBA Pretenders or Contenders?

Three weeks of the NBA regular season have gone by. Already, my thoughts about the Portland Trail Blazers have ranged from a top-five team in the NBA to a fringe playoff spot, and pretty much anything in between.

It is very hard to pinpoint the true nature of the Blazers so far this season, in part due to their relatively soft schedule. They do have quality wins against the Thunder, the Lakers, the Nuggets and the Clippers; however, each of those wins but one came at home, with at least one day of rest between the previous game.

That one win, at Oklahoma City, came against a tired Thunder squad, which had already played two more games than the Blazers had at that point.

On the road, the Blazers have generally been bad, losing three out of four, and not looking anything like the powerful home team they usually are. One reason the Blazers' record looks so good up to this point is that they've had almost twice as many games at home than on the road.

Another troubling thing to consider is how sluggish Portland has looked in the second half of back to backs, having only won once, at home against lowly Sacramento. They got blown out by a weak Suns team in Phoenix, and gave a very poor effort a couple of nights ago at home against the Orlando Magic.

To put this in perspective, the Thunder have already had five back-to-backs, including on stretch of three in a row, and have only lost once when playing games on consecutive nights.

At one point, the Blazers had the best record in their conference, but now sit in a tie for fourth place and only one game out of ninth. The season is still young, but the relative inconsistency of this team, as well as their penchant for digging big holes and then not being able to come back, is worrisome.

I want to say that the Blazers really are a contender, and not just the beneficiaries of a favorable early schedule, but in order for me to say that, three things need to happen.

1. They need to keep winning division games. Already, Oklahoma City has shown that it will be nearly impossible to keep pace with them, but Denver and Utah are both playing winning basketball as well right now. Even Minnesota looks much improved.

The Blazers have beaten the Nuggets and Thunder so far, and need to continue to win those games.

2. They have to stay healthy. So far, there have been no major injuries, which is a minor miracle for this team, given their luck of the past few seasons. To keep up with the other contenders, the Blazers will need good health, or else a lack of depth would really hurt them in the long run.

3. They need to play at least .500 basketball on the road. Sometimes even playoff teams will end up with sub-.500 road records, but these teams usually don't go far. This is mainly because they end up with a lower seed and have to win games on the road, plus be nearly perfect at home, to advance.

So, who are they? 

It's too early to tell right now, but in some ways that's a good thing, because it means there is still time to fix weaknesses and make a run at a top playoff spot. This year might be the best opportunity the Blazers have had for that in a long time; hopefully they are ready to take advantage of it.