Grading Every Recent MLB Free-Agent Signing, Trade and Contract Extension
If it feels like teams have been rushing to fill their rosters and otherwise get important business done before spring training, well, it's not just you.
It would be understating it to say that the last couple of weeks have been overwhelming. There haven't been any huge signings, but there's been a whole bunch of smaller deals. Otherwise, there certainly have been big trades and even bigger contract extensions.
Here's where you'll find grades for all of the above.
Well, maybe not "all" as in all. I gave my assessment on the Milwaukee Brewers' contract with Rhys Hoskins elsewhere, and some moves—i.e., trades centered on Nick Maton and Dominic Fletcher—don't really move the needle.
As to what went into the grades, it was a matter of asking whether the potential reward is worth the risk. If yes, the grade is good. If not, the grade is bad.
Let's start with four speed rounds and end with more thorough deep dives into four really big transactions.
Speed Round: Hitter Signings
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Washington Nationals sign LF Joey Gallo
The Deal: 1 year, $5 million with 2025 mutual option
The Grade: C
There's some Jeimer Candelario energy to this signing, but barely. Gallo has spent the last two years as basically a replacement-level player, and last year's 42.8 strikeout percentage is scarier than his 93.0 mph average exit velocity is comforting.
Kansas City Royals sign 2B Adam Frazier
The Deal: 1 year, $4.5 million with 2025 mutual option
The Grade: C
Did the Royals really need another light-hitting infielder? I think not, and Frazier is really only interesting on the basis that he hit a career-high 13 home runs last year. Of all the places he could build on that in 2024, Kauffman Stadium likely isn't one of them.
Los Angeles Angels sign OF Aaron Hicks
The Deal: 1 year, $740,000
The Grade: B
Hicks' salary for 2024 is the league minimum, so major league signings literally don't get lower-risk than this. It'll pay off if he carries over the .806 OPS that he posted in Baltimore in the latter half of 2023, though getting him consistent at-bats is likely the key there.
Arizona Diamondbacks sign DH Joc Pederson
The Deal: 1 year, $12.5 million with 2025 mutual option
The Grade: A
Pederson's OPS fell 110 points from 2022 to 2023, but key indicators like his walk and strikeout rates and batted ball metrics either improved or stayed about the same. As such, he may only need better luck to fix a DH spot that ranked 27th in OPS last season.
Milwaukee Brewers Sign C/DH Gary Sánchez
The Deal: 1 year, $7 million with 2025 mutual option
The Grade: A
Speaking of lousy DH spots, Milwaukee's produced only 16 home runs and otherwise ranked 28th with a .668 OPS in 2023. That's where Sánchez figures to see most of his playing time this year, and he should make the most of it if he picks up where he left off.
Minnesota Twins sign 1B Carlos Santana
The Deal: 1 year, $5.3 million
The Grade: B
The Twins didn't have a clear plan at the cold corner before this signing. Now they obviously do, and Santana is a fairly safe bet to give them 20 homers and an OBP in the low .300s for the effort. Not great stuff for a first baseman, but better than nothing.
Toronto Blue Jays sign DH Justin Turner
The Deal: 1 year, $13 million
The Grade: B
Brandon Belt graced the Blue Jays with an .857 OPS and 16 homers out of the DH slot last season, so Turner has decent-sized shoes to fill. The .800 OPS and 23 homers he posted last year bode well in this respect, but only if his power to left field plays as well at the Rogers Centre as it did at Fenway Park.
Speed Round: Starting Pitcher Signings
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Milwaukee Brewers sign RHP Jakob Junis
The Deal: 1 year, $7 million
The Grade: D
I had Junis pegged as a fine addition for a team planning to use him as a swingman, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. He's needed in a Brewers rotation that just lost Corbin Burnes, and I just don't know if he can sustain a 62.5 slider percentage as a starter.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign LHP Clayton Kershaw
The Deal: 2 years, TBD
The Grade: A
The financial terms of Kershaw's agreement with the Dodgers aren't yet known, and it's worth noting he won't recover from shoulder surgery until midway through 2024.
This deal gets an A anyway. Whatever the return on investment ends up being, it just wouldn't have been right for the Dodgers to part ways with Kershaw just when they're about to begin an exciting new era. Besides, there isn't anything they can't afford.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign LHP James Paxton
The Deal: 1 year, $7 million
The Grade: B
Paxton's job description might as well be, "Just eat as many innings as you can until Kershaw is back." That should be doable after logging 96 frames in 2023, and he notably did so with vintage mid-90s velocity. He should have quality innings to give if that carries over.
Oakland Athletics sign LHP Alex Wood
The Deal: 1 year, $8.5 million
The Grade: D
Wood was still an effective every-fifth-day guy as recently as 2021, but he was a middling starter in 2022 and then a middling swingman last season, finishing with a 4.33 ERA for 29 appearances that included 12 starts. Didn't foresee him getting $8.5 million, which makes you wonder if he demanded extra for having to pitch in Oakland.
Speed Round: Relief Pitchers
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Los Angeles Dodgers sign RHP Ryan Brasier
The Deal: 2 years, $9 million
The Grade: A
Brasier was a menace after the Dodgers picked him up off the scrapheap last summer, making 39 appearances and pitching to a 0.70 ERA. There was almost certainly unsustainability at work there, but not so much as to make $9 million look risky.
Tampa Bay Rays sign RHP Phil Maton
The Deal: 1 year, $6.5 million with 2025 club option
The Grade: A
The Rays lost an elite reliever when Robert Stephenson bolted for Anaheim. But with this deal, the hole in the bullpen suddenly doesn't feel as large. Maton's peripherals were off the charts last season, albeit with the caveat that he mainly dominated right-handed batters.
St. Louis Cardinals sign RHP Keynan Middleton
The Deal: 1 year, $6 million with 2025 club option
The Grade: A
It felt like St. Louis' bullpen needed another late-inning option, and that's precisely what it's getting in Middleton. He put a rough stretch behind him with a solid 3.38 ERA last year, with whiff, strikeout and ground-ball rates that all placed in the 91st percentile or better.
Los Angeles Angels sign LHP Matt Moore
The Deal: 1 year, $9 million
The Grade: B
Moore has been a consistent source of quality as he's racked up a 2.20 ERA over the last two years. He weirdly hasn't been especially effective against lefties, but it's not like they've hit him hard either. So even if $9 million doesn't feel like a steal, it's hardly an offensive sum.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Hector Neris
The Deal: 1 year, $9 million with 2025 club/player option
The Grade: B
The 1.71 ERA that Neris posted last year was about half his expected ERA, so a capital-B "Beware" is in order here. Yet the Cubs did need another late-inning arm, and $9 million doesn't sound so bad in context of the $50 million Neris was said to be seeking.
Texas Rangers sign RHP David Robertson
The Deal: 1 year, $11.5 million with 2025 mutual option
The Grade: B
Robertson is a decorated pitcher who's still effective even in his late 30s. So, of course it was the Rangers who signed him. He did finish last year with a tough stint in Miami, but peripherals that include a whiff rate in the 85th percentile make it easy to overlook that.
San Diego Padres Sign LHP Wandy Peralta
The Deal: 4 years, $16.5 million with player options
The Grade: A
Peralta's contract has opt-outs after 2024, 2025 and 2026, so this isn't really a "four-year" pact. But that's really the only nit I have to pick, as $4-ish million per year is more than fair for a pitcher with the second-best left-on-left OPS over the last two seasons.
New York Mets sign RHPs Shintaro Fujinami and Adam Ottavino and LHP Jake Diekman
The Deals: 3 years, $11.9 million
The Grade: A
To be clear, that's three years and $11.9 million for all three deals put together. It felt appropriate to lump them together, given that they're all worth between $3.4 and $4.5 million.
Ottavino can get righty batters out in his sleep, while Fujinami is up there among the hardest-throwing relievers in the game right now. The Rays fixed Diekman after his brutal start to 2023, to a point where he put up a 2.18 ERA amid increased velocity and more changeups.
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Speed Round: Minor Trades
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New York Yankees Acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson
The Deal: Yankees get Ferguson; Los Angeles Dodgers get LHP Matt Gage, RHP Christian Zazueta
The Grades: A for the Yankees, C for the Dodgers
The Yankees only had one left-hander in their bullpen before this trade, so it checks a box if nothing else. But that's also underrating it, as Ferguson is a lefty without a platoon split and solid knacks for striking batters out and stifling hard contact.
Gage is a journeyman without a clear role on the Dodgers, while Zazueta is a 19-year-old prospect who's only played in the Dominican Summer League. Clearing a spot for Brasier was the point of this trade for the Dodgers, and that's kind of underwhelming.
Seattle Mariners Acquire RHP Gregory Santos
The Deal: Mariners get Santos; Chicago White Sox get RHP Prelander Berroa, OF Zach DeLoach, No. 69 pick in 2024 Draft
The Grades: A for the Mariners, A for the White Sox
The Mariners didn't necessarily need another electric arm in their bullpen, but they got one in Santos. He averaged 98.7 mph on his heater last year, also mixing in a wipeout slider. It's no wonder his Statcast readings were mostly red.
It's always silly when a rebuilding team holds on to valuable relievers, so kudos to the White Sox for turning Santos into real future value. MLB.com had Berroa and DeLoach among Seattle's top 30 prospects, while the No. 69 pick has given us such luminaries as Tim Salmon and Bronson Arroyo.
Oakland Athletics Acquire RHP Ross Stripling
The Deal: A's get Stripling, cash; San Francisco Giants get OF Jonah Cox
The Grades: C for the A's, B for the Giants
Stripling is yet another pitcher who's coming off a year spent as a middling swingman in San Francisco. It should be some comfort that he racked up 70 strikeouts against only 16 walks in 89 innings, but not so much given he also served up 20 long balls.
Even if it took throwing in some cash, you have to hand it to the Giants for getting an actual prospect back for Stripling. Cox isn't top-100 material, but the thinking for Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America is that he at least has the range and speed to stick as a center fielder.
Seattle Mariners Acquire Jorge Polanco
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The Deal: Seattle Mariners get 2B Jorge Polanco; Minnesota Twins get RHP Justin Topa, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Darren Bowen, cash
The Grade for the Mariners: B
Polanco is ticketed to play second base for the Mariners in 2024, and that should be music to the ears of Seattle fans who remember what the position was like last season.
It was, above all, an offensive black hole that produced only 11 home runs and ranked 28th with a .607 OPS. As someone with a .780 career OPS, Polanco should be more than equal to the task of fixing things up.
What keeps this from being an A is that Seattle did pay a hefty price to get Polanco for 2024, even if his $12 million club option also results in him sticking around for 2025.
The Grade for the Twins: A
Apropos of the above, Gonzalez is a legitimate prospect who B/R's Joel Reuter ranks as the No. 62 talent in MLB. How his power develops is key, but his bat looks like a carrying tool after he hit .298 in the low minors last season.
Topa, meanwhile, can be the resident ground-ball guy in a Twins bullpen that's otherwise loaded with filth. He had a 56.7 ground-ball percentage last year in tandem with a 2.61 ERA.
These two guys alone make this a solid return for a guy who, though talented and accomplished, was in Edouard Julien's way at the keystone. Yet the Twins also saved $5.25 million in the deal, which immediately went toward signing Santana.
Baltimore Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes
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The Deal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall, 2024 Competitive Balance Round A pick (No. 34 overall)
The Grade for the Orioles: A
The No. 1 priority for the Orioles this winter was finding a top-of-the-rotation starter. Everyone knew it, including them. And just when it seemed like this quest could go unfulfilled, they went and got arguably the top-of-the-rotation starter in MLB today.
Since the moment he returned to starting in Aug. 2020, Burnes leads all qualified hurlers with a 2.85 ERA. He ostensibly had a "down" year in pitching to a 3.39 ERA over 193.2 innings last season, but his stuff remained as good (or better) as anyone's.
True, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner seems determined to hit free agency after this season. But win-now teams like the Orioles indeed should be making win-now moves, and this one didn't even require giving up all that much.
The Grade for the Brewers: D
I ran this trade through Baseball Trade Values' simulator and it concluded it to be a fair deal. There's indeed ample long-term value here, which is something Burnes didn't have for Milwaukee.
Yet it feels light. Ortiz is only the No. 90 prospect in MLB, and he has a chance to be all glove and no bat. Hall has nasty stuff, but the Brewers may be kidding themselves if they try him as a starter. A relief profile all the way.
It may be up to the draft pick to ultimately justify this trade, and even that's only so much comfort. It would be one thing if the Brewers bolstered their future amid a bleak present, but this is a team that won the NL Central last year. To go from that to this is a huge letdown.
Astros Extend Jose Altuve
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The Deal: 5 years, $125 million
The Grade: B
That the Astros extended Jose Altuve is very much An Unsurprising Thing, but that doesn't mean there's no risk involved.
Because this new deal doesn't begin until 2025, it's $125 million for Altuve's age-35-39 seasons. That's typically not prime territory for anyone, least of all for second basemen. Only nine have ever produced as much as 10 rWAR between those ages, and three of them played a century or more ago.
One can also quibble with the timing. Though the Astros have been the preeminent superpower in the American League for the last seven seasons, their window seems to be sliding shut. It's possible they've doomed Altuve to play out his golden years on lousy teams.
Yet even if that comes to pass, Altuve at least deserves good odds of aging better than most second basemen.
He seemed past his prime for a second there in 2020 and 2021, but his .918 OPS over the last two seasons has put the kibosh on that. And while he did miss 72 games with injuries last year, the big one was an impact injury. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice with those.
Besides, whether Altuve will be worth $125 million on the field seems almost beside the point. This was about locking him down as an Astro for life, and I'll be darned if I or anyone else is going to say the organization shouldn't have done it.
Royals Extend Bobby Witt Jr.
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The Deal: 11 years, $288.7 million with player options and 3-year team option
The Grade: A
Before Monday, Salvador Pérez owned the biggest contract in Royals history in the form of the $82 million extension that he signed three years ago in March.
Bobby Witt Jr.'s new deal is, uh, a fair bit bigger. And it's shocking that such a deal came from the Royals, whose last three Opening Day payrolls don't even add up to $288.7 million.
But even if he never improves on the player he is right now, Witt would be worth it. This is a guy who went 20-30 with home runs and stolen bases as a rookie in 2022, and then 30-49 in 2023 with a league-leading 11 triples and, by one measure, elite defense on the side.
And rest assured, the 23-year-old can and should improve. He already showed he can by substantially reducing his strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023. Strike zone discipline is his next frontier, and it should prove conquerable as he gains experience.
The Royals have also backloaded this deal so that the first four years only pay out $41 million. He'll make at least $100 million and as much as $329 million after that, and neither figure will sound as steep in the 2030s as they do now.
Especially, of course, once the Royals have a new stadium to help them pay for things.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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