8 MLB Free-Agent Steals Still on the Market
So, you think MLB's free-agent market still revolves around Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman?
Well, you're not wrong. But also among the still-available inventory are less-heralded free agents who deserve attention as potential steals.
I've made the case for eight players who, though unlikely to sign for big money, could play big parts on new teams in 2024. It's partly their results from last year that suggest as much, but it also matters that they have certain metrics going for them as well.
Because such exercises are never complete without a little speculation, I've also pondered possible fits and predicted an exact landing spot for each player.
Without further delay, let's count them down in order of where they appeared when B/R's Joel Reuter ranked the winter's top 100 free agents.
RHP Jakob Junis
1 of 8
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 40 G, 4 GS, 6 GF, 86.0 IP, 90 H (12 HR), 96 K, 21 BB, 3.87 ERA
Original Rank: 95
Jakob Junis was known for his slider even before the San Francisco Giants picked him up two years ago, but apparently what he needed was to throw it more.
The slider accounted for 50.5 percent of Junis' pitches in 2022, and then 62.5 percent in 2023. Doubling down last year proved to be the right idea, especially in the sense that he jumped from the 33rd to the 73rd percentile with his strikeout rate.
Whether such a slider-heavy approach could work in a starting role is another question. There are starters who mostly rely on breaking stuff, but those guys also have at least one good fastball. Neither Junis' sinker nor his four-seamer fit the bill.
But even if Junis is only capable of being a swingman, well, so be it. He showed last year that he can handle it, as he got more than three outs in 29 of his 40 appearances.
Possible Fits: Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers
Landing Spot Prediction: Red Sox
The Red Sox are interested in Junis, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Boston fans surely want a bigger splash, but it's not a bad thing that the righty would further bolster the club's pitching depth. And who knows? Maybe Craig Breslow's pitching lab can solve his fastball problem.
RHP Phil Maton
2 of 8
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 68 G, 7 GF, 66.0 IP, 49 H (6 HR), 74 K, 25 BB, 3.00 ERA
Original Rank: 67
Why the Houston Astros dropped $95 million on Josh Hader when they could have simply re-signed Phil Maton for far less is beyond me.
Before anyone asks, yes, I am jesting. Hader is amazing, and even Maton's otherwise strong 2023 campaign featured a significant red flag: Left-handed batters handled him just fine to the tune of an .856 OPS.
Still, any guy who can finish a year with a whiff rate in the 90th percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 100th percentile deserves some measure of attention. In essence, he was one of MLB's most dominant hurlers on a pitch-to-pitch basis even despite the platoon split.
Whether there's any more to be gained from Maton could come down to his breaking balls. Both his curveball and his sweeper are nasty, so he would perhaps be better served throwing either or both more often. Call it "The Full Junis" if you want.
Possible Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers
Landing Spot Prediction: Yankees
The Yankees have seemed determined to sign a reliever in recent weeks, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post says Maton is among their targets. He'd at least be an upgrade for a middle relief corps that's looking a little weak.
LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
3 of 8
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 11 G, 11 GS, 52.0 IP, 53 H (9 HR), 38 K, 14 BB, 3.46 ERA
Original Rank: 52
Hyun Jin Ryu is going to turn 37 on March 25, and you have to go back to 2019 to find the last time he spent a full season as an ace-caliber pitcher.
If nothing else, though, the one-time All-Star and ERA champion is finally on a normal schedule after missing most of the last two seasons because of Tommy John surgery:
Let's also grant that Ryu was pretty good when he did pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays last season, and that there are reasons to believe he can keep it up even if he doesn't turn back the clock with his strikeout rate.
In addition to posting a characteristically strong walk rate, Ryu was well above average with his exit velocity (75th percentile) and ground-ball percentage (71st percentile) in 2023.
Even if it's only for five innings a pop, a guy with those skills could strengthen the back end of just about any rotation.
Possible Fits: San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles
Landing Spot Prediction: Giants
These are strictly speculative possibilities for Ryu, who hasn't taken up much bandwidth on the rumor mill. I've picked the Giants because he and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi crossed paths in Los Angeles, and because Oracle Park would give Ryu's pitch-to-contact style plenty of breathing room.
C Gary Sánchez
4 of 8
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 75 G, 267 PA, 19 HR, 0 SB, .217 AVG, .288 OBP, .492 SLG
Original Rank: 51
Though Gary Sánchez flamed out as a Yankee and didn't do much to endear himself to Minnesota Twins fans in 2022, he may yet save his reputation.
Though he did so with a typically low on-base percentage, he was among the more dangerous sluggers in MLB after debuting with the San Diego Padres on May 30 last year. Between then and the end of the season, he barreled balls at a better rate than even Corey Seager and Giancarlo Stanton.
Let's also not gloss over that Padres pitchers had a 3.40 ERA when throwing to Sánchez, who was notably behind the plate for 18 of the 22 starts for which Blake Snell had a 1.18 ERA after May 31. Uncoincidentally, he rated well for framing and throwing.
The catch with Sánchez's defense remains that he's too big and unathletic to be much for blocking. Yet even with that, he's playable as an everyday catcher as long as his other skills are up to snuff.
Possible Fits: San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
Landing Spot Prediction: Marlins
At least as far as I can tell, the Marlins haven't been solidly linked to Sánchez. I've nonetheless tabbed them because they ranked 29th out of 30 teams in OPS from the catching position in 2023, and because they seem to have enough payroll space for him.
1B Brandon Belt
5 of 8
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 103 G, 404 PA, 19 HR, 0 SB, .254 AVG, .369 OBP, .490 SLG
Original Rank: 50
Brandon Belt was open about considering retirement after the Blue Jays' 2023 season ended. But sans any confirmation on that front, let's just assume he wants to keep playing.
If so, well, why not? He proved last year that he can still hit, as his 136 OPS+ topped even his fellow free-agent designated hitters. J.D. Martinez finished at 134, with Jorge Soler ending up at 128.
Belt will be 36 on April 20, but his so-called "old man skills" are aging just fine. These are patience and power, for the record, for which he landed in the 97th percentile for walk rate and in the 92nd percentile for barrel rate last season.
To be fair, he only had a .572 OPS against lefties, compared to an .890 OPS against righties. But given that most pitchers are right-handed, such a platoon split shouldn't be a deal-breaker for teams in need of some thump at DH.
Possible Fits: Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels
Landing Spot Prediction: Rangers
From ESPN's Buster Olney on Monday came word that the Rangers have internally discussed signing Belt. It makes too much sense, and not just because they have an opening at DH. For the erstwhile Giant, joining the Rangers would mean a chance to reunite with Bruce Bochy and to chase a third ring with the reigning World Series champions.
RHP Ryan Brasier
6 of 8
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 59 G, 15 GF, 59.2 IP, 42 H (3 HR), 56 K, 19 BB, 3.02 ERA
Original Rank: 45
At the time the Red Sox designated Ryan Brasier for assignment last May, he had made 20 appearances and been absolutely torched for a 7.29 ERA.
Well, then he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers and posted a 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances after June 21. No reliever who pitched as many as 38 innings after then did better.
There's no separating Brasier's surge from a new cutter that proved to be his best pitch as a Dodger. Yet he also seemed to be pitching with purpose, as his average fastball climbed over 96 mph in June and July and even threatened 97 mph on August and September.
Brasier did have a platoon split last year, but it wasn't that bad in the sense that he held lefties to a .653 OPS and righties to a .472 OPS. So, provided he can pick up where he left off, he's perhaps the best late-inning upgrade out there right now.
Possible Fits: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles
Landing Spot Prediction: Dodgers
These clubs are all interested in Brasier, according to Heyman and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Dodgers make the most sense. They know what it takes for him to succeed, and the bullpen is the one area of their roster that has yet to get an upgrade this winter.
OF/DH Tommy Pham
7 of 8
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 129 G, 481 PA, 16 HR, 22 SB, .256 AVG, .328 OBP, .446 SLG
Original Rank: 38
Tommy Pham had a pretty good season in 2023. Per his OPS+, he was 11 percent better than the average hitter. He also had a .772 OPS during the Arizona Diamondbacks' playoff run, highlighted by a 4-for-4 showing in Game 2 of the World Series.
Not bad for a guy who may have actually underachieved at the plate.
Pham's metrics are never not strong, but last year saw him improve on his walk and strikeout rates as well as his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate relative to 2022. Put another way, he was a good at-bat machine.
Rather than by any fault of his own, it's possible he was held back by Citi Field and Chase Field. He should thus interest teams that play in more hitter-friendly home parks, not to mention ones that could use a fierce competitor.
Possible Fits: San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins
Landing Spot Prediction: Padres
Pham makes sense for a ton of teams, but arguably no contender needs help in the outfield and at DH as much as the Padres. He also knows new manager Mike Shildt and, while not necessarily friendly to either, Petco Park does slightly favor righties over lefties.
CF Michael A. Taylor
8 of 8
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 129 G, 388 PA, 21 HR, 13 SB, .220 AVG, .278 OBP, .442 SLG
Original Rank: 30
Michael A. Taylor is not a good hitter. We know this because good hitters don't post career OBPs under .300 and, as Taylor did last year, whiff in 33.5 percent of their plate appearances.
But if Taylor is nothing else, he's a game-changing defender in the outfield. He's tied for eighth among all outfielders with 58 Outs Above Average since 2016, which is remarkable considering he's mostly been a part-time player.
Any guy who can play that kind of defense is no worse than a fourth outfielder, and he is coming off a year in which even his low OBP didn't stop him from being an offensive threat.
Those 21 home runs marked a career high, and they were backed by a barrel rate in the 88th percentile. He's thus at least worth trying as a semi-everyday player, if not a full-on everyday player.
Possible Fits: San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Landing Spot Prediction: Padres
Even if the Padres sign Pham, they'll still need someone who can work in center field on a regular basis. They're interested in Taylor, according to Robert Murray of FanSided, and his defense next to that of Fernando Tatis Jr. is something the people need to see.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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