How Far Will the Dodgers Go After Winning MLB's 2023-24 Offseason?

You know a team is having a good offseason when signing one of the greatest pitchers of all time registers as a mere ripple.

Clayton Kershaw is coming back to the Los Angeles Dodgers, alright, and what a heartwarming thing it is. Even if he won't be back until the middle of the year after having shoulder surgery in November, 2024 will mark his 17th season with the Dodgers. It just wouldn't have been right if he had gone anywhere else.

Besides, was Kershaw really going to miss out on this?

To say that the Dodgers have won the 2023-24 offseason is like saying that The Empire Strikes Back is the best Star Wars movie. It's technically an opinion, but it's so obviously true that it might as well be a statement of fact. And so it is with the Dodgers' offseason, as even pointing out that they've spent over $1 billion in free agency doesn't tell the whole story.

The hype is coming from everywhere, including from inside the house. Here's Mookie Betts, who's now one of four MVPs on the 2024 Dodgers, during the team's Fan Fest on Saturday:

"It's World Series or nothing," Betts said, as transcribed by Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com. "We're all trying to do the same thing, but we can't add extra pressure to do it. Adding extra pressure only does more harm than good. We just gotta play the same game we're gonna play. You know it's gonna be tough. Every game is gonna be the other team's World Series. It is what it is, but we signed up for it. We have to embrace that."

Bold talk. Now all the Dodgers have to do is live up to it.

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The Dodgers Have Gained a Heck of a Lot More Than They've Lost

Anyone remember what last winter was like for the Dodgers? If not, well, it wasn't good.

The excitement of their 111-win regular season had already been dulled by a swift exit in the first round of the playoffs, and the losses only kept piling up in the aftermath. Including Trea Turner, 12 players left the Dodgers in free agency for contracts totaling $458 million.

It's worth bringing this up just for the sheer contrast with what this offseason has been for the Dodgers. That is, in a word, gains:

• Signed: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani (10 years, $700 million), RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million), LF Teoscar Hernández (1 year, $23.5 million), RF Jason Heyward (1 year, $9 million), RHP Ryan Brasier (2 years, $9 million), RHP Joe Kelly (1 year, $8 million), LHP James Paxton (1 year, $7 million), Kershaw (TBD)
• Acquired via Trade: RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Manuel Margot

If you also count $160.6 million worth of extensions for Glasnow and Max Muncy, the Dodgers have made over $1.2 billion in financial commitments this winter. They darn near could have bought the Baltimore Orioles with this money.

Add up all the ZiPS projections for the players the Dodgers have gained and lost, and you get 19.4 WAR coming in and 16.4 WAR going out.

It's a net gain that more than justifies waving goodbye to J.D. Martinez and the 33 home runs he hit last year, and one that's almost certainly understated. Personally, I'll take the over on Ohtani, Yamamoto, Hernández and Glasnow combining for 11.5 WAR.

You can still see room for improvement if you really squint, particularly if you're focusing on a shortstop slot occupied by Gavin Lux. Just sayin': Willy Adames is out there as a potential trade candidate, and he'd look good in Dodger Blue.

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The Projections Herald a Superteam at Chavez Ravine

Even as they are, the Dodgers are probably going to win 100 games this year.

It's a good guess just based on their recent history, as they've tallied 100 or more wins in each of their last four full seasons. This is most other teams' ceiling, and it's the Dodgers' danged floor.

Then there are the PECOTA projections for 2024, which came hot off the presses on Tuesday. They have the Dodgers pegged for 101 wins.

That almost seems unimpressive after all the Dodgers have done this winter, yet I see it as another excuse to take the over. If they've proved anything in recent years, it's that PECOTA tends to underrate them:

• 2019: 95 projected, 106 actual
• 2021: 103 projected, 106 actual
• 2022: 98 projected, 111 actual
• 2023: 96 projected, 100 actual

If the Dodgers beat expectations again in 2024, it'll be that much harder to deny Dave Roberts' steady hand on the wheel. He's captained every one of these teams, not to mention the 2020 squad that blew away even a 103-win projection with a 116-win pace in the shortened season. Culminating, of course, in a long-awaited championship.

Oh, and one supposes the club's core stars would deserve credit as well.

It's the Ohtani, Betts and Freddie Freeman trio that really stands out, as the three of them would have combined for a 1.006 OPS and 112 home runs as teammates last season. The Dodgers are also bringing back all the key members of a bullpen that had a 2.26 ERA in the second half of 2023.

Otherwise, the sheer amount of stuff in this rotation is bananas. Glasnow and Bobby Miller were top-10 among starters in Stuff+ last year, and Yamamoto is supposed to be even nastier than they are. And if Walker Buehler holds up after his second Tommy John surgery, there's yet another stuff maestro.

It's possible Kershaw won't even be needed by the time he's ready, though he'll surely be welcome anyway. Even as his left arm has become less than god-like over the years, you just can't sneeze too forcefully at the 2.37 ERA he posted across 2022 and 2023.

If 100 wins is this team's baseline, the high-end target must be the franchise-record 111 wins from two years ago. That the World Series is also in play barely needs elaboration, though it does help that DraftKings has the Dodgers tabbed as the favorite (+360) to win it.

That 110 wins and a World Series championship can be treated as a realistic scenario here is frankly mind-boggling. Only seven teams have ever achieved so much as the former, with just three pulling off both in the same season.

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Want a Prediction? OK, Then.

This is the part everyone is advised to memorize, for potential "I told you so" purposes.

The Dodgers are going to win 107 games this season, and then bow out of the playoffs in the National League Championship Series.

The sheer upside of this Dodgers team is enormous, but not so much so that its downsides are completely obscured. The shortstop question is but one of several looming in the back half of a lineup where neither Lux nor Heyward nor James Outman figures to make a sizable impact. And for all its stuff, the rotation could have a workload problem.

To wit, Yamamoto is 5'10", 176 pounds and will have to get used to pitching every fifth day as opposed to once a week in Japan. That 120 innings is Glasnow's career high is less than optimal, while Paxton hasn't even topped 100 since 2019. Due to their recoveries, Buehler and Kershaw will also only have so much to contribute.

The strength of the competition is also considerable, particularly where Atlanta is concerned. PECOTA also tabs them for 101 wins, with both ZiPS and FanGraphs likewise favoring Atlanta as the best team in Major League Baseball.

There's also the Philadelphia Phillies, who'll be eyeing a third straight trip to the National League Championship Series, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, who handily defeated the Dodgers en route to the World Series last year. Neither has diminished as a threat this winter.

Lastly, I will also introduce into evidence the unpredictability of baseball. Even the best teams from the last 10 regular seasons have batted just .300 in winning the World Series, with only the 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Boston Red Sox and 2016 Chicago Cubs getting it done.

Here's the thing, though: Betts isn't wrong about this year being "World Series or nothing," but that's not the same thing as "now or never."

As scary as the Dodgers look now, 2024 also feels like a mere preview. It's in the years after that they could really get dangerous. That's where Ohtani will (hopefully) be pitching again and Yamamoto will only be more and more experienced as a major leaguer.

It's ultimately hard to fathom the Dodgers stopping the flow of 100-win seasons any time soon. They're bound to run into another championship eventually, whether it comes in 2024 or not.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.