Grading the Biggest 25 Moves of MLB Free Agency
Welcome to February, when MLB teams will boot up their spring training camps and even play a few games. In other words, the offseason will start to give way to the actual season.
This doesn't mean the free-agent market is about to close, but it does make now a good time for clear-eyed assessments of the 25 biggest deals of the winter.
A good, old-fashioned grading system was the logical way to go for this, and it came down to two basic questions:
- Is the deal appropriate for the player's present and future talent?
- Is it the right time for the given team to be making such a deal?
From past winters, an example of an F would have been the Colorado Rockies committing $182 million to Kris Bryant at exactly the wrong time, whereas an A would have been the Philadelphia Phillies committing $330 million to Bryce Harper at just the right time.
This list is unfortunately missing Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, J.D. Martinez and Jorge Soler. But until the six of them actually sign, there isn't a whole lot to be done about that.
In any case, let's go one-by-one in ascending order of guaranteed money, with average annual value serving as a tiebreaker.
Note: Original free-agent rankings courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter.
RHP Kenta Maeda, Detroit Tigers
1 of 25
Original Rank: 31
The Deal: 2 years, $24 million
The Grade: C
The Tigers got solid starting pitching in 2023, but that was mostly with Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former was traded last summer, and the latter opted out of his contract and is now employed elsewhere.
Kenta Maeda is thus a shoe-filler, and one with obvious downsides and upsides.
He was a Cy Young contender in 2020 and is still a good command artist with the ability to miss bats, as he occupied about the same percentile with his walk (78th) and strikeout (77th) rates in 2023.
On the other hand, he's a Tommy John survivor who'll turn 36 on April 11. It's doubtful he'll be a consistent source of innings.
Granted, it will be up to Tarik Skubal and not Maeda to carry Detroit's rotation in the next two seasons. But given their resources and where they are in their rebuilding cycle after a respectable 78-84 season, it's fair to ask if the Tigers should have made a bigger splash.
C/DH Mitch Garver, Seattle Mariners
2 of 25
Original Rank: 17
The Deal: 2 years, $24 million with 2026 mutual option
The Grade: B
To understand why the Mariners signed Mitch Garver, it helps to understand what they got out of the designated hitter slot in 2023.
Or didn't get, more accurately.
The position accounted for just a .677 OPS, which ranked 28th out of the league's 30 teams. Mike Ford's bat was actually a stabilizing force for the position, yet the Mariners still non-tendered him.
So, enter Garver. His 31-homer outburst from 2019 seemed like a one-off until last season, when he graced the Texas Rangers with an .870 OPS and 19 homers in 87 regular-season games. And come October, the 33-year-old drove in more runs than every Ranger except Adolis García.
To get a guy like this on a $24 million contract is not a bad deal at all, which leaves just one gripe: Seattle might have reached for more upside by signing J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler.
RHP Joe Jiménez, Atlanta
3 of 25
Original Rank: Unranked (had already signed)
The Deal: 3 years, $26 million
The Grade: A
Atlanta must have really been champing at the bit to get Joe Jiménez back in the fold, because its deal with him happened less than 12 hours after the World Series ended.
The 29-year-old righty's 2023 season was a good one, as he made 59 appearances and racked up a 3.04 ERA with 73 strikeouts against only 14 walks in 56.1 innings.
Jiménez did most of his work in low-leverage spots, with Atlanta manager Brian Snitker preferring Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Kirby Yates for high-leverage work. But since he held hitters to a .553 OPS in high leverage, it seems plausible that Jiménez could see more work in pressure spots now that Yates is gone.
For Atlanta, the risk of re-signing Jiménez so quickly was that it would prove to be a preemptive misjudging of the market. If anything, though, it now looks like it scored a bargain on a key cog for a low-key deep bullpen.
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RHP Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds
4 of 25
Original Rank: 54
The Deal: 2 years, $26 million with 2025 player option
The Grade: B
Among the great mysteries in life is how the 2023 Reds won 82 games even with that rotation.
It was a mess from start to finish, with the results being a 5.43 ERA and, as a downstream effect, a lot of extra work for a bullpen that unsurprisingly wore down. Poor Alexis Díaz is lucky his right arm didn't just fall off.
Because he's only made 19 starts over the last two years, how much Nick Martinez is going to help in a workload capacity is anyone's guess. Though he's penciled in as their No. 5 starter, the 33-year-old would frankly fit the Reds as a swingman.
But if, say, Nick Lodolo or Brandon Williamson were to force Martinez into such a role, so be it. The important thing is that he keeps getting ground balls, especially at Great American Ballpark. As long as he does that, the Reds should get good return on their modest investment.
LHP Yuki Matsui, San Diego Padres
5 of 25
Original Rank: 37
The Deal: 5 years, $28 million with opt-out after 2026 and 2028 player option
The Grade: A
For Padres fans, Yuki Matsui's biggest crime may be that he's not Josh Hader.
There's only one Josh Hader, of course, and he's a five-time All-Star closer who just scored a kinda-sorta record-setting contract. Though he was a hit in Japan, Matsui has yet to throw a pitch in MLB and, at 5'8", 167 pounds, is about to be one of the league's smallest pitchers.
Yet he's only 28, and the whole "hit in Japan" thing is informed by the 2.43 ERA and 236 saves he posted there. And if his rising fastball doesn't give hitters trouble, it's just not every day you see a lefty with a splitter.
One must stop short of calling Matsui a sure thing, but it's not a reach to think he has more than $28 million worth of upside. Deals like this are just what the doctor ordered for the Padres at a time when cutting payroll is a must.
LHP Sean Manaea, New York Mets
6 of 25
Original Rank: 74
The Deal: 2 years, $28 million with opt-out after 2024
The Grade: B
Martinez isn't the only hurler who's ticketed to go back to starting after operating as a swingman in 2023. That's Sean Manaea, too.
The lefty did a bit over everything last year, including starting 10 games and finishing two. Yet he was just OK with a 4.44 ERA overall, and more like bad with a 4.82 ERA as a starter.
The 31-year-old did make 60 total starts across 2021 and 2022, however, and last year saw him increase his velocity and put more trust in a sweeper that held hitters to a .158 average. If the Mets are smart, they'll see if there's more to be gained from that pitch.
If so, their $28 million will have bought a steal on an above-average back-end starter. If there isn't, he'll go back to being an unspectacular yet functional swingman.
Either way, he can at least help them compete amid an uncertain moment in their contention timeline.
RHP Reynaldo López, Atlanta
7 of 25
Original Rank: 66
The Deal: 3 years, $30 million with 2027 club option
The Grade: B
The initial word when Atlanta signed Reynaldo López was that he would be stretched out in spring training for a possible return to a starting role.
That's seemingly no longer the case now Chris Sale is aboard, and that's for the best. López, 30, is a known quantity as a reliever by way of a 3.01 career ERA and a strikeout rate a little south of 10 batters per nine innings.
That's despite a disastrous start to last season, but he was more than back to normal by the end of the year. His final 49 appearances yielded a 1.49 ERA, aided by a fastball that sat at 98.0 mph and limited hitters to a .149 average.
Though Jiménez should get his shots, it's probably López who will take Yates' place in Atlanta's high-leverage pecking order. Perhaps $10 million per year is a bit much for a guy with that job description, but it's also far from egregious.
RHP Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto Blue Jays
8 of 25
Original Rank: 60
The Deal: 4 years, $32 million
The Grade: D
The big question with Yariel Rodríguez is what he is exactly.
The 26-year-old mostly worked as a starter in Cuba between 2015 and 2020, yet even then he was prone to walks and that continued to be the case after he transitioned to relief work in Japan starting later in 2020.
And after representing Cuba in the World Baseball Classic, he didn't pitch professionally in 2023.
In lieu of taking Alek Manoah's spot in Toronto's rotation, a return to relief work is the best thing for Rodríguez. He has a wipeout slider, with a fastball that got into the upper 90s when he hit his peak as a relief ace in 2022.
That was two years ago, though, and whether Toronto needed another reliever is a fair question. It all makes for strange circumstances for the third-highest guarantee granted to a reliever this winter.
RHP Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
9 of 25
Original Rank: 20
The Deal: 2 years, $32 million with 2025 player option
The Grade: A
Starting pitching was not an asset for the Royals as they were losing 106 games in 2023. Their starters posted a 5.12 ERA and whiffed just 7.3 batters per nine innings.
Michael Wacha can help. Per his ERA+, he's been 27 percent better than average in each of the last two seasons. Notably, his changeup remains one of the best in the league.
Granted, the Royals aren't likely to get 30-plus starts out of the 32-year-old. He made 23 in 2021 and 2022, and he only got up to 24 last year. He just has a way of attracting minor bites from the injury bug.
Yet Kansas City's rotation was such that any little bit would help, and this is a relatively big bit. Wacha isn't going to make the Royals a contender on his own, but he'll at least make them more watchable. With three 100-loss seasons since 2018 in their wake, that's good enough.
RHP Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
10 of 25
Original Rank: 34
The Deal: 3 years, $33 million with conditional 2027 option
The Grade: B
Robert Stephenson's 2023 journey is further proof that when the Tampa Bay Rays want to trade for one of your guys, just hang up.
After posting a 5.14 ERA in 18 outings as a Pittsburgh Pirate, the 30-year-old righty went to Tampa and ripped off a 2.35 ERA over 42 appearances. He struck out 7.5 times as many batters as he walked, mainly by using a brand-new cutter that proved to be dominant.
Far from an out-of-nowhere success story, it may have been just a matter of time before something like this happened. Stephenson always had good stuff, after all.
The Angels now stand to benefit from the Rays' good work, but that doesn't mean they automatically get an A. Trying to replicate another team's success story didn't work with Tyler Anderson, and then there's the question of whether an 89-loss team should be as focused on signing relievers as L.A. has been.
1B Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
11 of 25
Original Rank: 19
The Deal: 2 years, $34 million with 2025 player option and 2026 mutual option
The Grade: A
No matter who it was, whichever team signed Rhys Hoskins this winter was going to make a low-risk, high-reward gamble.
Though he did miss all of last season, the cause (torn ACL) is one that doesn't invite much in the way of doom-and-gloom skepticism. And prior to the injury, Hoskins was pretty much a stone-cold lock for an OPS in the .800s and 30-odd home runs annually.
No team needed a guy like this at the cold corner more than the Brewers. The .681 OPS they got from third base was the third-lowest in MLB, which was no help to an offense that posted the lowest OPS of any team that made the playoffs.
Where the Brewers stand as a contender going into 2024 is a point we can debate, but there's no debating they're more likely to get there with Hoskins than without him. For that kind of boost, $34 million is a pittance.
RHP Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees
12 of 25
Original Rank: 11
The Deal: 2 years, $37 million with 2026 vesting option
The Grade: C
The reaction to Marcus Stroman's deal with the Yankees has been weirdly negative in some circles, including for reasons that are hardly worth taking seriously.
This is a two-time All-Star we're talking about, and one with a specific skill that makes him ideally suited to the Yankees. He is a ground-ball machine, and no team allowed a lower batting average on grounders in 2023 than the Yankees.
Yet there are fair ways to criticize this union, including by pointing out that being promised Yoshinobu Yamamoto only to end up with Stroman is kind of a drag. The 32-year-old has also made only 25 starts in each of the last two seasons, failing to crack even 140 innings in either.
Though New York's rotation is surely better with Stroman, his recent workloads effectively make him one of four significant question marks after staff ace Gerrit Cole.
Whether it was for Yamamoto, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, the Yankees should have aimed higher.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
13 of 25
Original Ranking: 15
The Deal: 2 years, $38.5 million with opt-out after 2024 and 2026 mutual option
The Grade: B
If for no other reason, the Red Sox had to sign Lucas Giolito because they badly needed someone in their rotation to soak up innings.
Their starters worked only 774.1 innings in 2023, good for 27th in the league. Giolito himself pitched 184.1 innings, thus easily clearing the 160-inning threshold for the fifth time in as many full seasons since 2018.
What Boston will need is for his ERA to come down from the high 4.00s, for which there is hope. Fenway Park might not worsen his issues with the long ball, and his tendency for whiffs (i.e., 70th percentile in 2023) makes him a good fit for Boston's new pitching lab.
Yet what still makes this signing as odd now as it was in the moment is how it came on the heels of the Chris Sale trade. With both of them in the rotation, the Red Sox would look vaguely like a contender. With just Giolito, they don't even rise to that level.
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks
14 of 25
Original Rank: 12
The Deal: 3 years, $42 million with opt-out after 2025 and 2027 club option
The Grade: A
At the time, the Diamondbacks taking on Lourdes Gurriel Jr. felt like a cost of doing business in the trade that brought back Gabriel Moreno.
But then he went and had a career year. He was an All-Star for the first time in July and ended with careers highs for home runs (24) and rWAR (3.0). He was then one of Arizona's better players in its ill-fated, yet fun World Series run.
As reasons to expect regression go, there's really not much. The 30-year-old isn't much for walks, but his Statcast page for last season is otherwise littered with above-average ratings for his offense and his defense.
Age is a threat to knock Gurriel down a peg, but $42 million still feels light for a player with his two-way ability. Especially if he helps them get back to the playoffs, it should prove to be more than fair for the Diamondbacks.
RHP Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
15 of 25
Original Rank: 32
The Deal: 4 years, $44 million
The Grade: D
Jordan Hicks' guarantee would be the second-highest for a reliever this winter, but the Giants have thrown a wrench into expectations by way of plans to use the righty as a starter.
Though not necessarily a binding choice, it is an odd one. The 27-year-old has only eight starts among his 212 career appearances, and those produced a 5.47 ERA with 21 walks in 26.1 innings.
If Hicks does move back to the bullpen, well, no problem, right? It's a role that suits him especially well these days, as last year saw him develop a dominant sweeper to pair with his unrivaled penchant for triple-digit heat.
Even in relief, though, the free pass has tended to haunt Hicks and his effectiveness in high-leverage spots has been trending backward. His deal is basically a $44 million experiment, and it seems odd that a team coming off back-to-back middling seasons would be the one to make that gamble.
RHP Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
16 of 25
Original Rank: 25
The Deal: 3 years, $45 million with 2026 player option
The Grade: A
Given how bad their starting pitching was in 2023, the Royals would have been kidding themselves if they had signed just one starter and called it a winter.
Hence why they needed Seth Lugo in addition to Wacha, though the deal with the 34-year-old doesn't make as much immediate sense. He's older and less established as a starter, yet he's the one who got a bigger guarantee?
However, it's more defensible on the grounds that Lugo made 25 starts and ate up 146.1 innings in 2023. He also has two good fastballs in his four-seamer and sinker, and it wasn't until late last season that he introduced a sweeper that showed real promise. Batters hit just .130 against it.
Just as Wacha alone wouldn't have done the trick, Wacha plus Lugo still isn't likely to make the Royals a contender again. But once again, I'm inclined to give them an A just for the effort.
1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds
17 of 25
Original Rank: 21
The Deal: 3 years, $45 million
The Grade: B
Of all the teams that could have signed Jeimer Candelario, it was definitely a surprise when he joined a Reds club that already had a surplus of infielders.
It's hard not to think of whether the $45 million should have gone toward a pitcher such as Lugo, Giolito or Stroman. And if it had, a rotation that still features little in the way of sure things at least would have gotten a rock around which to revolve.
Still, it's also hard not to like this deal. Candelario is a good hitter in general, having posted at least a 119 OPS+ in three of the last four seasons. And he's historically raked in Cincinnati with a career 1.094 OPS at Great American Ball Park.
In this case, the 30-year-old is also valuable insurance for the event that one or more of Cincinnati's young infielders regresses. If not, he's at least better filler for Joey Votto's shoes at first base than any of them might have been.
LHP Shōta Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
18 of 25
Original Rank: 14
The Deal: 4 years, $53 million (plus $9.8 million posting fee) with 2026 and 2027 player options and 2028 club option
The Grade: A
There were rumblings here and there that Shōta Imanaga's market was strong enough to possibly result in a nine-figure deal. Yet the Cubs got him for...half that, somehow?
That could indicate his market was never really that strong. Or, it could indicate that the lefty really wanted to be a Cub after a successful career in Japan, which featured sub-3.00 ERAs in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The pros of the 30-year-old's scouting report include excellent command and a deep pitch mix that, like Matsui's, contains a rare lefty splitter. The cons include a home run tendency that can be traced back partly to a fastball that he might like a little too much.
Yet if any team can "fix" Imanaga's fastball, it may be the one that has turned Justin Steele's heater into an elite pitch despite its relatively modest characteristics.
In this event, the result would be an upgrade over even the departed Stroman in the No. 2 slot of the Cubs' rotation.
RHP Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
19 of 25
Original Rank: 9
The Deal: 3 years, $75 million with 2027 club option
The Grade: A
Sonny Gray is another pitcher who was expected to earn more money. MLB Trade Rumors, for example, projected him for a deal worth $90 million.
The Cardinals did well just to this extent, and then there's the fact that Gray was, arguably, the best hurler in MLB on a pitch-to-pitch basis last season. He led qualified starters in Fielding Independent Pitching, for which it helped that he struck out 183 with 55 walks and eight home runs surrendered in 184 innings.
Whether he can be counted on for similar workloads over the next three years is the iffy part. He's 34 years old and last year was only his second season out of the last seven with 30-plus starts. Albeit minor ones, he tends to attract injuries.
It's all relative, though. In this case, the Cardinals badly needed a No. 1-type starter after their rotation posted its highest ERA since 1994 last season. As such, signing Gray is a big reason why they're slated for an immediate turnaround from their last-place finish.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
20 of 25
Original Rank: 10
The Deal: 4 years, $80 million with 2028 vesting/mutual option
The Grade: B
Though Brandon Pfaadt rose to the occasion last October, the Diamondbacks were always going to be better off going into 2024 with him as their No. 4 starter rather than their No. 3.
This is where Eduardo Rodriguez is meant to fit in, though it's worth being nervous about whether his 3.30 ERA from last season is repeatable. None of his under-the-hood metrics really stood out, so it tracks that his run prevention required good fortune.
Yet I was ultimately able to talk myself into E-Rod being the right guy at the right time for Arizona. He's not going to hurt himself with walks, and his fly-ball style should pair well with Chase Field's dimensions and the D-backs' very good outfield defense.
Plus, some risks are just worth taking. This isn't even a big one in the grand scheme of things, and it only bolsters the Diamondbacks' chances of proving last year's World Series run was just them getting started.
LHP Josh Hader, Houston Astros
21 of 25
Original Rank: 6
The Deal: 5 years, $95 million
The Grade: B
Though Edwin Díaz signed for $102 million last winter, deferred money lowers his deal's present-day value below that of Josh Hader's $95 million contract.
It's an inherently risky deal even sans context, and there is some scary stuff in said context. Though last year was his second out of the last three with an ERA in the low 1.00s, Hader also lost 1.4 mph off his fastball and posted the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career.
It's enough to make one nervous just about 2024, much less 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. If the 29-year-old's deal is going to pay off for the Astros, it needs to happen soon.
But isn't that kind of the point? Houston's contention window isn't getting more open, after all, and it would have been in danger of shutting even sooner if the Astros hadn't responded to Kendall Graveman's shoulder surgery.
Signing Hader was them throwing caution to the wind, and I say good on them for doing so.
CF Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants
22 of 25
Original Rank: 29
The Deal: 6 years, $113 million (plus $18.8 million posting fee) with opt-out after 2027
The Grade: C
The Giants had many problems on offense last season, but a big one was simply getting hits. Their .235 average was the lowest in the National League.
Perhaps it's the opposite of surprising that they signed a 25-year-old with a .340 career average in South Korea. And by all accounts, Jung Hoo Lee has the zone discipline and uncanny bat-to-ball talent to keep raking in MLB.
As he only hit 65 home runs in seven seasons in the KBO, what Lee doesn't really have is over-the-fence power. He's thus going to need to complement his hitting with good defense and baserunning, and reports on those fronts are somewhat mixed.
Though Lee is the better player, there's some Masataka Yoshida energy coming from his deal. That wouldn't be a huge criticism if he was meant to be a complementary player, but for now, he's more lined up to be a star attraction for a Giants organization trying to recover from back-to-back middling seasons.
RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
23 of 25
Original Rank: 3
The Deal: 7 years, $172 million
The Grade: B
In what almost feels like ancient history by now, the Phillies' re-upping with Aaron Nola was the first big splash of the winter when it happened in November.
It's still not surprising that they were unwilling to let him get away. He's a rubber-armed hurler who ranks second to Gerrit Cole in innings pitched since 2018, a span in which he's earned Cy Young Award votes on three separate occasions.
From another angle, though, the Phillies have shelled out $172 million to a pitcher who wasn't even league-average in 2021 or 2023. Whether it was because of the pitch timer or whatever, last season also saw his whiff rate fall from the 68th to the 48th percentile.
Still, the vibes here are nowhere near "post-2019 Stephen Strasburg" levels of ominous. Nola comes off as a better bet to age gracefully than your standard 30-year-old hurler, and the Phillies didn't exactly misjudge their contention window when they extended this offer. It'll be wide open for the foreseeable future.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
24 of 25
Original Rank: 2
The Deal: 12 years, $325 million (plus $50.6 million posting fee) with opt-outs after 2029 and 2031
The Grade: A
In signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers have made the longest commitment ever to a pitcher. It's also the most expensive if you count the posting fee.
Is it a risk? You bet it's a risk. Even setting aside the fact that he has never thrown a pitch in MLB, there are still sticky issues like his size (5'10", 176 pounds) and his funky mechanics.
Still, 25-year-old hurlers with sub-2.00 ERAs to show for seven professional seasons just don't come along often, much less as free agents. And seemingly no matter who you ask, Yamamoto's command and pure stuff figure to be elite.
And if ever there was a perfect team to make such a risky play, it's these Dodgers. Far from some aging team that's making a last-ditch effort to prop open its championship window, theirs has been and will continue to be as open as anyone's. And a big part of that, of course, is how well they handle pitchers.
DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
25 of 25
Original Rank: 1
The Deal: 10 years, $700 million
The Grade: A
Go figure that the only true two-way star in MLB history would also be the most hyped free agent ever. And, in turn, that he would score the richest contract in sports history.
Strictly judging it as a baseball move, the odds are likely against Shohei Ohtani actually being worth $700 million.
The 29-year-old's pitching arm is currently out of commission, after all, and it's not out of the question that he'll never again be the pitcher he once was. To come back from one major elbow surgery is hard enough, and this latest one was his second.
But even if Ohtani never takes the mound again, the Dodgers will still have an elite hitter—he boasts a .964 OPS and 124 home runs for the last three seasons—on their hands. And if he does have to move to the outfield, probably an elite outfielder as well.
Otherwise, one feels better about Ohtani's deal knowing that he'll only be cashing $2 million checks over the next 10 years, and also that this is as much about business as it is baseball.
This is about as low-risk as any $700 million contract is ever going to be.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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