Potential Disaster Scenarios for Top 5 College Football Playoff Teams
The five power-conference teams with an undefeated record once again headline the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
In fact, the order is identical to the initial release. Ohio State remained atop the selection committee's poll, followed by Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington.
We know at least one unbeaten—Michigan or OSU—is guaranteed to lose because of the eventual head-to-head showdown between the two. But there are problematic scenarios lurking around each top-ranked team.
No program with a two-loss record has reached the CFP in any of the previous nine seasons, so that's a natural point. However, we'll also explore a second scenario that—even if unlikely—is a plausible way for a current contender to exit the CFP conversation.
Washington Huskies
1 of 5
The Obvious Disaster: Two Losses
After outlasting USC in a high-scoring thriller, Washington hosts Utah before traveling to Oregon State. It's not unreasonable to believe that either Top 20 opponent could defeat the Huskies. It's unlikely, but it's not implausible.
For good measure, Washington State awaits in the regular-season finale. Given how poorly the Cougs have played lately, a rivalry win could help salvage their slipping season.
The Next Disaster: Oregon Stays Hot
Washington may finish 12-0 yet miss the College Football Playoff with a loss to an 11-1 Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Oregon lost the earlier clash by only three points, so a win in the rematch to secure a conference title would likely elevate Oregon past UW.
From there, the Huskies desperately need to avoid a straightforward group of champions elsewhere. If Florida State, Georgia and the Big Ten champion are 13-0, it'd be them and Oregon in the CFP.
Florida State Seminoles
2 of 5
The Obvious Disaster: Two Losses
On the bright side, Florida State is likely to win out. Miami is reeling offensively, North Alabama is a lower-division team and Florida has collapsed lately.
But, hey, rivalries are strange sometimes. Miami has played well defensively for much of the season and certainly wants to atone for its horrendous loss to FSU last season. Billy Napier's hot seat could be scorching by the Nov. 25 clash, and nothing would cool it quicker than stunning Florida State.
The Next Disaster: Losing in ACC Title Game
The above scenario is improbable. In all likelihood, the Seminoles will hold a 12-0 record entering the ACC Championship Game, where Louisville is the expected opponent.
Drop that matchup, though, and it's hard to believe FSU's resume would be more appealing than a one-loss conference champion such as Texas. Plus, the 'Noles may fall behind a one-loss non-champ if Georgia and/or Michigan or Ohio State fit that billing.
Michigan Wolverines
3 of 5
The Obvious Disaster: Two Losses
Michigan is the most logical two-loss candidate on paper. Penn State and Ohio State are both Top 10 teams, after all.
Given how thoroughly the Wolverines have dominated this season, it probably won't happen. Finding two setbacks does not require mental gymnastics, though.
The Next Disaster: Losing to Ohio State
Yes, the elephant in the room is potential discipline in regard to the sign-stealing controversy. The outcome is unclear, but the Big Ten could decide to suspend head coach Jim Harbaugh before the NCAA investigation is complete. (If that happens, a legal battle may follow. Because of that, who knows if the punishment would be served this season anyway.)
That uncertainty aside, the Wolverines must defeat their nemesis once again. Ohio State, which hosts Michigan State and Minnesota before then, is likely to carry an 11-0 mark into The Game. The Buckeyes could put themselves in the CFP with a victory over U-M and a Big Ten title.
The ensuing worse-case scenario would be that Georgia, FSU and Washington all finish 13-0 alongside Ohio State. Plus, an 11-1 Michigan team would likely fall behind a 12-1 Pac-12 champ Oregon.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Ohio State Buckeyes
4 of 5
The Obvious Disaster: Two Losses
Ohio State trails only Florida State as the least likely to drop two games. If the Buckeyes fall at home to Michigan State or Minnesota, it'd be surprising.
Ohio State hasn't been an overwhelming team in 2023, however, so an upset wouldn't be truly shocking. Losing on the road at Michigan would not be unexpected, of course.
The Next Disaster: Limited Chaos
Two years ago, U-M beat Ohio State and bounced the Buckeyes from CFP contention. Thanks to South Carolina's late-season heroics and Utah's smackdown of USC in 2022, however, OSU managed to slide into the CFP despite its loss to Michigan.
It's tough to see a repeat. If Michigan wins the matchup, the Wolverines are presumably in. Short of some disastrous sequence that involves the league champion having two losses, the Pac-12 and SEC winners are headed to the CFP. As long as Florida State is 13-0 or a 12-1 ACC champion, the 'Noles should be going, too.
Texas at 12-1 as the Big 12 champion would only further complicate Ohio State's hopes of another lucky break.
Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 5
The Obvious Disaster: Two Losses
During the next two weekends, Georgia hosts No. 10 Ole Miss and travels to 14th-ranked Tennessee. As with Washington and Michigan, you don't have to work hard to find two setbacks even before the potential of a conference championship game.
The Next Disaster: Alabama Rolls, Plus No Help
At this point, you've probably noticed the common thread of everyone else continuing to win games. It's both simple and undeniably true. Georgia could be 12-0 heading into the SEC Championship Game, but an 11-1 Alabama squad would make the CFP with a victory over UGA in Atlanta.
In recent years, the CFP selection committee maybe could have said a one-loss, non-SEC champ Georgia would be a superior team to a one-loss conference winner. Not so in 2023. Knowing that, any 12-1 or 13-0 league champion from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 should be above the Dawgs—in addition to Alabama already.
Georgia would need some serious assistance to make the CFP as a one-loss non-champion, much like Ohio State and TCU received last season.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
