How Teams Outside the Top 4 Can Get Into the 2024 College Football Playoff
The beginning of the end has arrived.
With the release of the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the season, the puzzle pieces are assembling.
The selection committee offered up few surprises in its initial unveil, delivering a top four that was as follows: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan, and No. 4 Florida State.
It's worth repeating that these initial rankings don't matter. The only ranking that does is the final one, and that will be decided on December 3. Before then, football carnage will play out. Upsets will come, and conference championships will be decided.
Teams outside the top four need not panic. There are still plenty of moments to unfold. For teams currently ranked No. 5 and lower, there is still a blueprint to crack the final four.
Here are those blueprints.
Washington
1 of 9
If Washington wins out, it will be in the College Football Playoff. It's that simple.
The Huskies are unbeaten, ranked No. 5 in the first rankings, and they are powered by one of the best quarterbacks in the U.S. They also have a win over Oregon, which is one of the best wins any team across the country has this year.
There is a lot to love about this team, although the last two games are concerning. Washington struggled against Arizona State and Stanford following their win over the Ducks, which paints an interesting picture going forward.
The schedule has teeth, and another game against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship is looming. A loss makes things interesting, but the Huskies would still have a shot.
Win out, and there will be no debate.
Oregon
2 of 9
The loss to the Huskies was a significant bump in the road, but it wasn't the end for Oregon.
Although the outcome was disappointing and this season's mulligan was lost, the stakes remain the same. If the Ducks win out, they're likely to be in the postseason. They debuted at No. 6 in the first CFB Playoff Rankings, the highest one-loss team.
A dominating win at Utah was another reminder of this team's talent and balance, and Oregon will have a chance to prove it against USC and Oregon State in the regular season.
From there, a rematch against Washington could be in order. And if that's the case, the winner could well be in line for a spot in the final four.
How would the committee view Oregon vs. one-loss Michigan or Ohio State? A conference title could be the difference, and it's a necessity for the Ducks.
Regardless, one thing is becoming abundantly clear: This is not a team many other squads want to play right now.
Texas
3 of 9
Although the loss to Oklahoma still lingers, Texas' season is far from over.
Granted, being without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers doesn't help matters. His injury could greatly impact the push for the playoff, starting as early as this week.
Kansas State comes to town, and the Wildcats have been dominant of late. While there are still a handful of losable games left, this is without a doubt the biggest obstacle remaining in the regular season.
An out-of-conference win over Alabama should sit well with the playoff committee. As should a dominant win over Kansas, which just took down rival Oklahoma.
If Texas wins out, it will have a compelling case to be in the College Football Playoff. While it's not a lock—and the path could likely include a potential rematch against the Sooners—the resume could be robust.
A loss for Florida State and others hovering wouldn't hurt, though.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Alabama
4 of 9
Alabama is mortal, but it is also still very much alive.
Somewhat quietly, the Crimson Tide have crept back into the picture. The No. 8 attached to Nick Saban's team in the first playoff rankings looks and feels a tad unusual given the past decade. But it's also good news for the program.
In terms of losses, the defeat to Texas is as good as a bet outcome gets. As such, the selection committee will likely reward the Tide.
The potential outcomes here seem pretty defined. If Alabama wins out, which would include a win in the SEC Championship Game over Georgia, it will likely be in the playoff. Any loss, starting this week against LSU, and the assignment becomes pretty much impossible.
The path is there, but it'll take a strong close from a team that has played too many close games.
Oklahoma
5 of 9
A week ago, Oklahoma would have been viewed much differently among the rest of the teams. Heck, it might have even been one of the first four mentioned.
However, a loss to Kansas changes things, and the momentum built after a victory over Texas has been temporarily halted. As a result, the Sooners are No. 9 in the initial rankings.
That loss isn't necessarily a "bad" loss. Kansas has morphed into a reputable football program in a short period of time. It's also not a great loss, and that could be an issue at some point if it gets that far.
In a suddenly crowded Big 12, the Sooners travel to Oklahoma State this week before taking on West Virginia, BYU and TCU. Winning the rest of the way, including the Big 12 Championship Game, is imperative.
At this point, Oklahoma needs some help. Oh, and the Sooners have to win every single game.
Ole Miss
6 of 9
It's odd to say "Lane Kiffin" and "flying under the radar" in the same sentence, but here we are.
The selection committee doesn't necessarily think so. Ole Miss debuted at No. 10 in the first rankings, which is a solid (and fair) spot.
In terms of cracking the final four, this one is intriguing. The Rebels play Georgia in a couple of weeks, and a victory there changes the perception entirely. Because Ole Miss lost to Alabama earlier in the season, though, the Rebels are a game—plus a tiebreaker—behind in the standings.
A one-loss Ole Miss team that wins the conference championship would be a compelling playoff team. A one-loss, non-conference champion Ole Miss that has wins over LSU, Tulane and Georgia might be as well.
In conclusion, let's see what happens this week against A&M and then at Georgia. But there is a path.
Penn State
7 of 9
In recent weeks, this playoff resume has taken a serious hit.
First, Penn State lost to Ohio State. Granted, the Buckeyes are a superb team, and the game was on the road. But the optics, especially on offense, weren't ideal.
Then, the Nittany Lions struggled against Indiana as more than a 30-point favorite. While Penn State ultimately won, this was far too close for comfort.
Despite a bizarre few weeks, PSU is currently No. 11 in the playoff rankings. That's right where it should be.
All of this feels somewhat unimportant compared to the game this team will play against Michigan in a few weeks, though. A victory here will wildly change the way the selection committee views Penn State; it could also create a fascinating tiebreaker scenario in the Big Ten East.
The Nittany Lions need to win that game, first and foremost. After that, let the games and potential tiebreaker scenarios begin.
Missouri
8 of 9
Well, look at what we have here.
Missouri is 7-1, and the Tigers have wins over two ranked teams. The loss against LSU could have easily been a win, but let's not get stuck in the past.
This resume was good for the selection committee to start Missouri at the No. 12 seed, which is an incredible accomplishment for the program. It's also not a ranking that will stay very long, one way or another.
By this time next week, the Tigers will have moved. With a road game against Georgia on deck, a tremendous opportunity has arrived. After that, Missouri will play Tennessee and Florida. Both of these games could provide a test. Both could also help boost a resume that could look mighty impressive in the end.
Does Mizzou control its own destiny? It might not be far off. While the Tigers would likely still need some losses, they could well be this year's chaos team.
Or, not. Check back on Sunday.
LSU
9 of 9
By Saturday night, the Tigers will either be very much in or very much out.
With two losses already, another defeat will eliminate LSU from the playoff. But if it wins out, starting with Saturday's game at Alabama, the selection committee could face an interesting decision.
As it stands, the Tigers are locked in at No. 13. There's some climbing to do.
The College Football Playoff has yet to have a two-loss team in the final field. That will change next year when the field expands, although the four-team format still has never seen it quite yet.
Two-loss LSU could make for an interesting case, especially when you consider one defeat came in an out-of-conference game against Florida State.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. If Brian Kelly's team wins on Saturday, it's time to regroup. We still need losses from other teams and some key wins to get there.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
