Buying or Selling Early 2023-24 MLB Offseason Rumors and Buzz
It's hard to hear them over the noise of the postseason, but anyone who listens closely can make out the whispers about what might happen in Major League Baseball's 2023-24 offseason.
But how believable are they?
Let's answer this question by way of a good, old-fashioned game of "Buy or Sell?" There are eight rumors and bits of speculation out there worth addressing, with the idea being to weigh whether we can take them seriously as possibilities that could come to fruition.
These rumors aren't ranked, per se, but we will proceed in order from least interesting to most interesting.
The White Sox Are Interested in Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield
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Source: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score
With a 101-loss season and teardowns of their front office and roster behind them, Levine reports that the White Sox have discussed "at length" trading for Salvador Perez and signing Whit Merrifield.
Though Merrifield isn't officially ticketed for free agency, it seems unlikely that the Toronto Blue Jays will pick up his $18 million mutual option for 2024. Perez, who's owed $44 million through 2025, was notably a trade target ahead of this year's deadline.
Whether the White Sox could use these two guys is not in dispute. Perez, an eight-time All-Star, would be a huge upgrade for a catcher spot that ranked 30th with minus-1.5 rWAR in 2023. Merrifield's best position is second base, where the White Sox ranked 29th with minus-0.4 rWAR.
Of course, just because the White Sox want these guys doesn't mean they can simply have them.
Perez seems happy in Kansas City and could use his 10-and-5 rights to block a trade even if the White Sox and Royals were to work something out. And even if Merrifield does become a free agent, a three-time All-Star like him will likely have more suitors than a typically frugal franchise that's only just begun a rebuilding phase.
Verdict: Sell
Could the Orioles Trade Anthony Santander?
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Source: Roch Kubatko of MASN
In fairness to Kubatko, what he wrote about the Orioles and Anthony Santander isn't so much rumor or speculation as it is insinuation.
He says in his article that his "unscientific projection is there's zero chance that the club retains all" 16 of its arbitration-eligible players. He then covers how Santander is due the biggest raise from $7.4 to $12.7 million, that he's been the subject of trade interest in the past and how he's only under club control through 2024.
Of course, it must be granted that none of the previous speculation on Santander went anywhere. But what Kubatko is getting at nonetheless tracks, and then there's the question of whether the Orioles can live without Santander.
To the extent that he's hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons and is a rare veteran in a predominantly young clubhouse, maybe not. But with top-100 prospects Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser ready to man the outfield in the majors, maybe.
Since the Orioles could use depth in their starting rotation and for a bullpen that won't have Félix Bautista in 2024, there's still more incentive for them to see what they can get for Santander this winter.
Verdict: Buy
Could the Rays Trade Tyler Glasnow?
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Source: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times
Here's another one that's less rumor and more speculation, with Topkin writing that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot "seem likely to be in trade discussions" this winter.
If so, this wouldn't be Glasnow's first rodeo as the subject of trade rumors. It was via trade that he first landed in St. Petersburg in 2018, and his name has tended to pop up here and there on MLB Trade Rumors even since then.
Like with Santander, none of those rumors ever went anywhere. Also like Santander, however, this time could be different.
The extension that Glasnow inked in Aug. 2022 had an interesting structure, as it called for a $5.4 million salary in 2023 and then a huge increase to $25 million in 2024. That's a lot of money for the Rays, who are also looking at pay raises for 16 players via arbitration.
With Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz having had elbow surgery this year, the Rays aren't exactly swimming in healthy arms. But it might nonetheless be now or never for the Rays to sell high in Glasnow, as as the righty's extensive injury history offers no guarantees that he'll retain his value beyond this winter.
Verdict: Buy
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The Cardinals Are Interested in Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray
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Source: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch
There's no ambiguity here, as Goold reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers who "the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual."
The Cardinals should have money to spend this winter, and there can be no doubt that they need starting pitching as much as anyone.
Their starters posted just 4.1 rWAR to rank 28th in the league this season. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty were no longer in St. Louis on the other side of the trade deadline, and 2024 will be the first year since 2004 that Adam Wainwright won't be around.
Nola and Gray, meanwhile, have four All-Star selections and five top-10 finishes in the Cy Young Award voting between them. Gray has been 21 percent better than average for his career, while Nola ranks second among all pitchers in innings since 2018.
This is to say that either would fit well on the Cardinals, who should be seen as candidates for a quick turnaround despite their last-place finish this year. Nola, in particular, had the look of a future Cardinals pitcher even before Goold published his report.
Verdict: Buy
The Dodgers, Yankees and Mets Are High on Yoshinobu Yamamoto
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Source: Bob Nightengale of USA Today
First, some background on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
His seven-year career in Japan with the Orix Buffaloes has been nothing short of sensational, as he's racked up a 1.72 ERA and won the Eiji Sawamura Award twice. He also tallied 7.1 innings for Team Japan in this year's World Baseball Classic, striking out 12 against two walks.
Oh, and he only just turned 25 years old on Aug. 17. He's therefore going to be one of the top free agents on the market when Orix posts him.
This makes Nightengale's report that the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets have him high on their wish lists less than surprising. All three can afford him and all three figure to be in the market for starting pitching. Notably, the Dodgers' need will only grow stronger if Clayton Kershaw decides to hang up his spikes.
Yet it's the Mets who seem especially likely for Yamamoto in the meantime, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post writing they "might be the high bidders" for the right-hander. They struck gold last winter on fellow Japanese ace Kodai Senga, who's quite keen on recruiting his countryman to the Mets.
Verdict: Buy
The Cubs and Pete Alonso Have Mutual Interest
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Sources: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score and Jesse Rogers of ESPN
Whether or not they land Yamamoto in free agency, the Mets will have a major decision to make with Pete Alonso this winter.
The slugging first baseman is heading into his final year under club control, and there's nary a sign that doesn't point to the Cubs in the event that the Mets make him available. They've already tried to get him once, and both Levine and Rogers hear that Alonso is still on the team's radar.
Rogers even went further, saying: "I think that he wants to come here as much as they want him."
As for the obligatory cold water, Heyman pushed back on the notion that Alonso wants to be a Cub and it was only a couple weeks ago that David Stearns, the Mets' new president of baseball operations, said he expects Alonso to be the team's starting first baseman next year.
The future is nonetheless uncertain, both in the sense that the Mets may be eyeing 2025 or 2026 for their next contention run and in that Alonso's new agent, Scott Boras, isn't known for doing extensions. And with Cody Bellinger about to enter the open market, the hole the Cubs have at first base is glaring indeed.
Verdict: Buy
The Padres Are 'Leaning Towards' Trading Juan Soto
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Source: Bob Nightengale of USA Today
Juan Soto was one of shockingly few bright spots for the Padres amid their 82-win season, but it may be time for them to say goodbye anyway.
According to Nightengale, the Padres are "internally leaning towards" dealing Soto this winter. Because apparently it's not doing them any good to have a 24-year-old three-time All-Star who just posted a .410 OBP with a career-high 35 home runs.
In all seriousness, this is a financial thing. Soto is projected to earn $33 million via arbitration in 2024, which is also his last year under club control. And after running a $250 million payroll this year, the Padres want to cut theirs down to more like $200 million.
Asked point-blank about Soto, Padres general manager A.J. Preller didn't exactly shoot the idea down: "We've never been a group that says no to anything. I wouldn't read into that. That's just kind of the way we operate."
Apart from the financials, there's at least one other reason for the Padres to shop Soto. Whatever value he has in a vacuum, it may be that much greater in context of a free-agent market that won't have much to offer in terms of impact hitters.
Verdict: Buy
The Red Sox Are a 'Real Threat' for Shohei Ohtani...or Are They?
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Sources: Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Sean McAdam of Mass Live
Speaking of the market for free-agent hitters, Shohei Ohtani will obviously be the major exception to its general rule of weakness. Everyone knows what he can do.
As to where he might end up, a new favorite has entered the chat in the form of the Red Sox. Heyman says the two sides "are starting to be linked more and more," with factors including the two-way star's endorsement deal with Boston-based New Balance and the club's rather extreme need to course-correct after another last-place finish.
But hold on a second. From McAdam comes word that Ohtani was "not at all a focus" during a recent planning meeting for the Red Sox's offseason. Further, he notes that owner John Henry is "philosophically skittish" about long-term megadeals.
That part definitely holds true. At least in free agency, the Red Sox have never done a deal longer than seven years under Henry's stewardship. Though he'll turn 30 on July 4, 2024, Ohtani is likely to command a length that stretches into the double digits.
Further, it's right-handed hitting the Red Sox will need this winter, not left-handed hitting. They also need starters who can help right away, whereas Ohtani won't be able to get back on the mound until 2025 after having elbow surgery.
Verdict: Sell
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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